2017 British Columbia election

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Numerical analysis Part 1
These are based on the numbers from the Elections B.C Website when there were still about 40 total polls outstanding.  Almost final election night totals.  

Vancouver: 230,559
Liberal 79,522, 34.5%
N.DP 117,871, 51.1
Green  30,134, 13.1
Other    3,032

Lower Mainland (Burnaby, Tri Cities, Delta, New Westminster, North/West Vancouver, Richmond)
Total 390,581
Liberal 159,681, 40.9%
N.D.P 163,334, 41.8
Green   57,418, 14.7
Other 10,148

Surrey 175,904
Liberal 73,069 41.5%
N.D.P 80,137 45.6
Green 18,771 10.7
Other   3,927

Fraser Valley (Abbotsford,, Chilliwack, Langley, Maple Ridge)
Total 199,294
Liberal 97,388, 48.9%
N.D.P 66,668, 33.5
Green  29,069,14.6

Southern Interior
(Kootenays, Kamloops, Okanagan, Fraser-Nicola)
Total 296,374
Liberal 147,892,49.9%
N.D.P   89,327,30.1
Green    50,420,17.0
Other      8,735

North (Cariboo, North West, Prince George - including Nechako Lakes, Peace River, Powell River-Sunshine Coast)
Total 141,602
Liberal71,539, 50.5%
N.D.P 49,720 35.1%
Green 14,056   9.9%
Other    6,287

Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Langford, Esquimalt)
Total 181,294
Liberal 43,813, 24.2%
N.D.P 76,498, 42.2
Green  59,020, 32.6
Other    1,963

Northern Vancouver Island
Total 181,736
Liberal 61,114, 33.6%
N.D.P 72,919, 40.1
Green  42,092, 23.2
Other    5,611


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Total Greater Vancouver (AKA Metro Vancouver) 48 ridings
Total 996,338
Liberal 409,660,41.1%
N.D.P 428,010,43.0
Green 135,392,13.6
Other   23,276

Total North and Interior  25 ridings
Total 437,976
Liberal 219,431, 50.1%
N.D.P 139,047, 31.7
Green   64,476, 14.7
Other   15,022  


Total Vancouver Island 14 ridings
Total 363,030
Liberal 104,927, 28.9%
N.D.P 149,417, 41.2
Green 101,112, 27.9
Other     7,574

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Numerical Analysis Part 2
Closest Ridings - less than 5%
1.Courtney-Comox, 37.1% NDP, 37.1 Liberal
2.Maple Ridge Mission, 41.5% NDP, 41.0 Liberal
3.Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, 44.4% Liberal, 43.6 NDP
4.Richmond-Queensborough, 41.7% Liberal, 40.3 NDP
5.Vancouver-False Creek, 42.6% Liberal, 40.0 NDP
6.Vancouver-Fraserview, 47.9% NDP, 43.2 Liberal
7.Fraser-Nicola, 42.4% Liberal, 37.6 NDP

Highest Vote Share
Liberal
1.Peace River South 75.6% (no Green Party candidate)
2.Peace River North 66.3 (no Green Party candidate)
3.Kelowna-Lake Country 60.1
4.Kelowna West, 59.6
5.Cariboo-Chilcotin, 58.8
6.Prince George-Valemount, 58.7
7.West Vancouver-Capilano, 57.7
8.Kelowna-Mission, 57.6 (oddly named riding, obviously not connected to Fraser Valley's Mission)
9.Prince George-Mackenzie, 57.3
10.Vancouver-Quilchena, 56.8
11.Kamploops-South Thompson, 56.6
12.Kootenay East, 56.6
13.Shuswap, 56.1
14.Nechako Lakes, 54.5 (Liberals usually do better here, I assume the nearby Site C Dam may have reduced their vote)
15.Langley East, 53.9 (First Fraser Valley riding!)
16.Penticton, 53.6
17.Chilliwack-Kent, 53.5
18.Skeena, 53.2 (but, no Green Party candidate) (Gain from NDP)
19.Richmond North Centre, 53.0
20.Abbotsford South, 52.8

N.D.P
1.Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, 64.9%
2.Vancouver-West End, 61.3
3.Vancouver-Kingsway, 60.1
4.Kootenay West, 59.7
5.Vancouver-Hastings, 59.4
6.Surrey-Whalley, 58.4
7.Surrey-Green Timbers, 58.2
8.North Coast, 57.5
9.Surrey-Newton, 57.4
10.Port Coquitlam, 55.5
11.Vancouver-Point Grey, 55.1
12.Vancouver-Kensington, 54.9
13.Burnbaby-Edmonds, 53.7
14.Vancouver-Fairview, 53.6
15.Surrey-Fleetwood, 53.4 (Gain from Liberal)
16.Victoria-Swan Lake, 53.4
17.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 52.9
18.Langford-Juan de Fuca, 52.8
19.New Westminster, 51.6
20.Stikine, 51.2 (no Green Party candidate)

Green
1.Oak Bay-Gordon Head 51.9%
2.Saanich North and the Islands 41.7
3.Cowichan Valley, 37.2
4.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 30.3
5.Victoria-Swan Lake, 29.9
6.West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, 28.7
7.Nelson-Creston, 27.9
8.Parksville-Qualicum 25.6
9.New Westminster, 25.4
10.Saanich South, 25.2
11.Esquimalt-Metchosin, 24.8
12.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, 24.1
13.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, 23.7
14.Vernon-Monashee, 21.4
15.Kamloops-South Thompson, 20.5
16.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, 20.3
17.Kamloops-North Thompson, 20.2
18.Nanaimo, 19.7
19.West Vancouver-Capilano, 19.2
20.Kelowna-Lake Country, 19.2 (no Green Party candidate  )

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Homer Simpson channels Andrew Weaver on the Green Party election results
https://youtu.be/R_rF4kcqLkI?t=1m44s

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All votes except absentee ballots have now been counted: 1,799,355 votes.  Any chance it gets to 2,000,000?

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html

As it says on the website, that number is only the valid votes cast.  So, the number of people who cast a ballot is greater than that.  Anybody know how many spoiled ballots there usually are?

I think it's possible about 2 million cast a ballot. If only there weren't well over 3 million eligible voters.

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One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

To be precise though, all of that pontificating came from our resident troll. 

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Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?

Richmond is heavily, heavily Chinese and even though in terms of average income its no richer than Surrey (which is heavily South Asian and is more NDP-friendly) it has traditionally been an NDP dead zone because the NDP didn't have much support in the Chinese community. If you look at household income and being a inner suburb of Vancouver, were it not for the Chinese factor, Richmong OUGHT to be as NDP-friendly as Surrey! so the gains there are a bit of a reversion to the mean

That seems to have changed this time. If you look at how the NDP picked up Fraserview and Burnaby North (both of which have large Chinese populations) and gained so much ground in all four Richmond seats, I suspect that as the Chinese community matures and assimilates politically it is starting to hedge its bets politically and the taboo on voting NDP is wearing off. Now that the NDP has elected four Chinese-Canadian MLAs, I expect the NDP to target Richmond heavily next time and to have much more credibility in that community.

I commented on this previously.  I wrote there were three primary possibilities (or a combination of 'all of the above')
1.The Chinese community becoming more integrated with the general community.

2.The general swing in Metro Vancouver to the NDP

3.A sense from all voters in Richmond that they had been taken for granted by the B.C Liberals.  I was at the NDP office on election night and in their concession speeches both defeated candidates Kelly Greene and Chak Au mentioned that.  So, it's likely that was something they had heard on the door step.

In addition to the not very popular in Richmond Massey Bridge Replacement and the school closures (which was the reason for Kelly Greene's entry into politics) there may have been some unhappiness with Jas Johal being appointed as the B.C Liberal candidate (both due to the lack of a nomination and that he doesn't live in the riding or in Richmond or New Westminster) and the extra sense with some Richmondites of 'time for a change' with Linda Reid who was first elected back in 1991.

This is especially the case with Linda Reid in that there is a sense that despite her lengthy service of 'what has she done for us?" as well of, obviously  'she's nothing but a hack career politician.'

In regards to Johal, it will be interesting to see how he did in the Richmond part of the riding vs. how he did in the New Westminster part of the riding.

Johal is ahead by over 250 votes, but with the absentee votes still to be counted there is a very slim possibility he could lose.  I wouldn't expect it, but it's a possibility.

Based on the 2015 Federal Election results there certainly is no indication that Richmond is becoming any more NDP ideologically.

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One explanation for the upset win of Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is that the outgoing Liberal MLA, Naomi Yamamoto, was hurt by the "I am Linda" incident.

On the video after Christy Clark quickly walked away (ran away?) from the Linda person who wanted to tell Clark why she'd never vote for her, Yamamoto apparently gave Linda a very nasty glare/stare.

I don't think this would have become anywhere near the issue it did if the B.C Liberals did not put out the ridiculous allegation that Linda was somehow an NDP plant.  Christy Clark further compounded that by claiming that Linda said that she had never voted for the B.C Liberals when all she, in fact, said was "I'd never vote for you."

I wouldn't say Christy Clark was intentionally lying there because I know memory is a strange thing, but why did she and the B.C Liberals feel any need to respond to this incident in the first place?

Another reason that may have been a bigger cause - this riding which is based in the City of North Vancouver - and is home to many renters, may have not been too happy with Christy Clark's opposition to the NDP promise of a $400 a year rent subsidy on the basis that 'people want help moving to homes and don't want to stay renting.'

I think most renters probably agreed with Horgan when he said (this wasn't his exact reply but it summed up his position) "people want help with addressing their present situation."

Also, I always find this interesting:

When a tax increase of say $400 a year is proposed right wing politicians and their advocacy group enablers refer to it as a 'massive tax increase.'

When a tax cut (or subsidy) of $400 is proposed many politicians and advocacy group enablers of all stripes refer to it as 'an insignificant cut worth $1 a day."

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Should the Liberals form the next government and not in a formal coalition with the Greens, I would certainly suggest to them that they appoint more MLAs from Metro Vancouver to the cabinet.  The "woefully underused MLAs Sam Sullivan and Marvin Hunt" (quote from David Schreck from before the election) should be two obvious considerations.  Sam Sullivan was a one term mayor of Vancouver and Hunt was a Surrey City Councilor and chair of the GVRD.

My proposed B.C Liberal cabinet (9 MLAs from Metro Vancouver, 9 MLAs from North/Interior - including Christy Clark - and the one from Vancouver Island, ,not including Donna Barnett.)

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Christy Clark
2.Finance/House Leader, Mike de Jong
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shirley Bond
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Jane Thornthwaite
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Teresa Watt
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Steve Thomson
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Rich Coleman
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Norm Letnick
9.Environment, Mary Pollack
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Todd Stone
11.Citizen Services, Innovation and Technology, Sam Sullivan
12.Human Resources and Housing, Michelle Stilwell
13.Children and Family Development, Stephanie Cadieux
14.Education, Mike Bernier
15.Advanced Education and Training, Mike Morris
16.Health, Coralee Oakes
17.Municipal Affairs, Marvin Hunt
18.Aboriginal Relations, John Rustad
19.Justice and Public Safety, Andrew Wilkinson

1.Minister of State for Rural Development, Donna Barnett

On the one hand I could see an interest in Christy Clark promoting some of the high profile new MLAs to cabinet - Ellis Ross who gained an open NDP riding in Skeena, Peter Milobar the popular mayor of Kamloops, Tracy Redies the CEO of Coast Capital Savings Credit Union, or Jas Johal, but with the Liberals in such a precarious position, it would also be very difficult to drop any current ministers from the cabinet.

Dropped minister "What's the Mr Whip, you need me for a vote, cough cough.  I seem to have just gotten a cold, sorry but it's best I not go to the legislature."

The actual outgoing cabinet has 21 senior positions with two others who were ministers of state, but I think the easiest thing for Christy Clark to do would be to just tell her new MLAs that 'there will be future cabinets.'

Shirley Bond gets trade from Teresa Watt because Bond is Economic Development Minister and this requires a top minister due to Trump.

Jane Thornthwaite is promoted to cabinet as Tourism minister as she represents tourist economy communities in North Vancouver.

Teresa Watt is from heavily recent immigrant Richmond.

Steve Thomson important to keep a steady hand at Forestry with the softwood lumber issue.

Rich Coleman takes over from retiring Bill Bennett. Energy is an important issue with the Site C Dam going ahead and with the negotiations over the Columbia River Treaty.  Merging Coleman's Natural Gas portfolio back into the larger ministry would also be an acknowledgment that LNG development is mostly a fantasy.

Sam Sullivan is promoted to cabinet.  His riding has many 'knowledge workers.'

Marvin Hunt is promoted to cabinet.

Andrew Wilkinson takes over from the defeated Suzanne Anton.  Wilkinson is one of the few lawyers in cabinet, and was a prominent and highly regarded person prior to getting into politics (in addition to being a top person at the B.C Civil Liberties Association, he is also a Rhodes Scholar, a medical doctor and was a Deputy Minister in the Gordon Campbell government. ) Unfortunately, just like the once highly regarded Chris Alexander, Wilkinson seemed to have a personality transplant after getting elected and became a partisan attack dog and hack government lying enabler.

The Justice Ministry which is supposed to be somewhat nonpartisan would be an opportunity for him to redeem himself.  I heard him in a fairly lengthy radio interview yesterday morning on CBC and he came across as much more reasonable and is clearly highly intelligent.

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One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

To be precise though, all of that pontificating came from our resident troll. 

To repeat what he predicted...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hey, Lotuslander was grandiosely declaring himself the expert of all experts.  He, and only he, knew the way things were going; the rest of us were NDP snowflakes.

And, look what happened to this so-called "expert".  Blown credibility in an instant.  *Nobody's* gonna take that putz seriously anymore.  He's no winner; he's just a bum--*regardless* of whether the BC Liberals get their majority in the end.

Wonder if he'll be hiding in the bushes, Sean Spicer-style...

To be precise, I think you were the only person here who took him seriously before this.

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What's striking to me in this election is the erosion of the "urban liberal" pillar of the Free Enterprise Coalition over these past two elections.  In terms of their geographic base, Christy Clark's "Liberals" look pretty much identical to Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011, False Creek really being the last of the "federal Liberal" BC Liberal holdouts.  

The "urban pillar" group has really solidified behind the NDP in the past two elections.  David Eby won with a much bigger margin in Point Grey than Gordon Campbell did in 1996, 2005 and 2009, the NDP took Fairview again by a wide margin too and even False Creek was close.

Also Vancouver-Quilchena and in the 2015 Federal election the Liberals won North/West Vancouver by large margins.

Maybe my strong dislike of Christy Clark clouds my judgement here, but I think this is much more of a strong anti Christy Clark government sentiment than a shift of Federal Liberals to the N.D.P based on changing ideology.

Our resident troll often quotes Keith Baldrey and I remember after the 2013 election when after nearly 3/4 of Christy Clark's cabinet was either from the Fraser Valley or from the Interior/North (around half the cabinet was from the Interior/North even though they had just 25 of the then 85 seats in the legislature) and Baldrey said something like "Vancouver shouldn't be surprised that it was punished after it voted out two Liberals."

And then after that came the disaster of Peter Fassbender as both education minister and municipal affairs/Translink Minister.  

Given that there isn't a bottomless pit of money to spend, I can sympathize with the government for the spending restraint in education, especially since the education outcomes for average students are very good based on rankings from standardized tests (the higher intelligence and the lower intelligence special needs students are the ones who seem to be getting shafted) and I believe the Vancouver School Board was much more to blame for its conflict with the province, but as Translink Minister, both he and before him Todd Stone certainly seemed to go out of their way to pick fights with the mayor's council forcing them into a referendum at the same time as allocating basically the same amount of money the referendum would have allowed to be collected in taxes on the ridiculously expensive George Massey Bridge that only one mayor wants.  

Throw in the housing affordability issue that the Christy Clark government for whatever reason was extremely slow to address, and essentially Vancouver and other parts of Greater Vancouver decided to punish Christy Clark in return.

I would think that if Christy Clark resigned as Premier and was replaced by a centrist Liberal like Mike Bernier that the B.C Liberals would regain a number of Greater Vancouver ridings in a subsequent election and return with a comfortable majority.

The view is that in many ridings the increase in the Green vote was a result of past B.C Liberal voters who couldn't take any more of Christy Clark but couldn't bring themselves to vote for the NDP parking their vote with the Greens.  The B.C NDP for the fourth straight election has basically stalled at 40% of the vote.

Of course, part of this view is likely based on the need for so many pundits to keep churning out the lazy conventional wisdom that the 'NDP can only win (or come close to winning) when the free enterprise coalition is split' so these new Green voters MUST be former Liberals.  For example, there is a ridiculous claim that the Green Party did not split the centre/left vote and take ridings form the NDP. The NDP candidates in the former NDP ridings of Saanich North and the Islands and Cowichan Valley might disagree with that.

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Also Vancouver-Quilchena and in the 2015 Federal election the Liberals won North/West Vancouver by large margins.

Again, said Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011.

Oops. Sorry

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Haha. Why do NDP zealots/flakes continue to troll this thread? We have "Adma", from Ontario, a 5-hour flight away from BC, who knows absolutely nothing about BC politics and has contributed absolutely nothing to this BC election thread except to troll - part of the "NDP is a church" crowd - the Christian Heritage Party types on the left. No analytical skills whatsoever.

We have "Adam T" who claims to reside in the east Richmond neighbourhood of Hamilton... yet is/was unaware that neighbouring Queensborough is part of New Westminster earlier herein - about a 15-second drive down the 91 Fwy. Every dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of same. Sigh.

Now back to the current 2017 outcome and various potential political permutations.

Even if Courtenay-Comox (which BC NDP won by 9 votes) doesn't flip from the BC NDP to BC Libs after final recount (another ~2,000 votes), etc. a BC NDP/BC Green combination will still only add up to 44 seats v. 43 for the Libs. Such a combination will also require a speaker appointed leaving 43 - 43 tie votes in the legislature. If just one BC NDP/BC Green MLA fails to show up for a confidence vote, throne speech vote, monetary bill, etc. then the gov't falls. No stability there.

Under that scenario, if the gov't falls, that does not necessarily mean a new election. The lieutenant-governor could appoint the BC Libs as gov't if she believes they have the confidence of the house (that BC Greens will then support them).

Now some political history with narrow BC gov't MLA margins. Back in the 1979 BC election, the outcome 31 Socreds v. 26 NDP. With a speaker appointed from Socred benches leaving a 4 seat majority. Even then, at one point, the gov't almost fell in a confidence vote as some Socred MLAs were either sick, unable to attend, etc.

After the 1996 BC election, the BC NDP had 39 seat to 36 seat opposition. With a speaker appointed, the BC NDP had a 2 seat majority. During one key confidence vote, the 5-minute vote warning bell was ringing in the legislature. Then BC preem Glen Clark ran toward the doors of the legislative house, but was too late. Doors had already been locked for voting - it was a tie and the speaker broke the tie.

Again, a BC NDP/BC Green combo would always result in a tie vote. An "unstable" proposition.

OTOH, a combined BC Lib/BC Green vote would be 46 - 41 and bring more "stability". The BC Libs could also govern as a minority akin to the 2004/2006/2008 fed Con minority gov'ts. The fed Libs did not prop them up - they just abstained from voting to prevent the gov't from falling resulting in a new election.

Former well-known UVic prof Norman Ruff from earlier yesterday, who is also known to have soft-centre-left leanings (BTW, his wife ran for the BC NDP in a Greater Victoria area riding during the 1972 BC election):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/11/bc-greens-most-likely-to-side-with-liberals-in-a-minority-government-uvic-professor/

And tonight, in a Globe & Mail article, BC Green leader Andrew Weaver is quoted as follows:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are the words again... "stable gov't".

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/weaver-charts-path-to-green-party-support/article34981079/

1.I never said I reside in the Richmond neighborhood of Hamilton.  The first part of analytical skills is being able to take in information correctly and you can't even do that.

Given that you trolled me earlier on twitter, I suspect you may be on some other fishing expedition here.  I'm not the type to hide in a safe space, but I am suspicious of what you're up to here.

Again, I ask the mod here, please ban this troll Lotuslander.

2.I thought this was a very good letter to the editor in the Richmond News, Friday May 12, 2017

Dear Editor,
So yet another vitriolic B.C election is over, and the NDP, despite coming so close, appear to have fallen short yet again.

Despite the fact that Premier Christy Clark (a person, who, in my opinion, is totally devoid of empathy, has no morals or ethics, has been totally corrupted by big money, and is on loose terms with the truth and facts) appears to have, subject to recounts and absentee votes, at minimum, secured a minority mandate, the NDP may be better off coming up a bit short.

Take the economy.

B.C has led the country for the last two years in economic growth.  During the election, Clark was claiming that the Conference Board of Canada indicated that B.C would also lead the country in economic growth at 2.4%, in 2017.  This statistic was also quoted by the Vancouver Sun in their endorsement of Clark the day before the election.  However both the Sun and Clark (again showing her loose association with the truth) failed to acknowledge that the Board had revised their growth prediction for B.C to 1.9% (fourth in the country.) It should be noted that the current budget is pedicated on growth of 2.3%

The reduced growth projection for 2017, and subsequent years, will result in less government revenue and reduced (if any) job growth.  This, of course, will mean a deficit budget or reduced expenditure (with the Liberals this means cuts to the most vulnerable in society.)

Under Clark, both ICBC and B.C Hydro have been reduced to financial basket cases.  Both are losing massive amounts of money.

It has been speculated that ICBC rates could increase as much as 42% over the next few years.

B.C Hydro may be in even worse shape, given that Moody's Investments Services is considering downgrading its investment rating.

Under the Liberals, Hydro has created deferral accounts that now total almost $6 billion, by far the most of any North American utility.  That money eventually needs to be repaid.

The deferral accounts give the allusion that B.C Hydro is making a profit and thus need to pay a dividend to the government.  The fact is Hydro does not make a profit and has to borrow money (from the government) to pay the government a dividend.

The NDP's election promise to freeze hydro rates for a year may be good politics, but it is incredibly bad policy. The bills eventually have to be paid.

A day of reckoning is coming for both ICBC and B.C Hydro.  The result will be massive cost increases to British Columbians regardless of who is in power.

The Vancouver Convention Center, B.C Place Renovation, South Fraser Perimeter Road, North West Transmission Line, Port Mann Bridge Extension and the Evergreen Line Extension are all, among other projects, initiated by the B.C Liberals that have one thing in common: they were all delivered late and massively over budget.  The same situation applies to almost every I.T project initiated by the Liberals.

Why should we believe that Site C and the Massey Bridge will be any different?

If the NDP was in government when the bills come due, they would be tarred with the fallout (after all, they are still vilified by the B.C Liberals for alleged sins in a previous century) and would spend another 20 years in the political wilderness.

The NDP is best letting the B.C Liberals take the heat for the mess they created.
-Al Williams

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1.I never said I reside in the Richmond neighborhood of Hamilton.

Haha. You are nothing more than a complete and utter flake. You incessantly post that you have "put me on your Ignore List" yet, every time I post herein... you deceive everyone... you have not put me on your "Ignore List". You always respond to my posts. Typical fringe "Jehovah's Witness Sect" NDPer. Weird and bizarre.

Now you even deceive again. The only residential neighbourhood in East Richmond IS Hamilton! Any dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of that as well FFS.

From our discussion herein on November 11, 2015:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Google is my friend. Caught ya in another deceitful episode irrespective of your bafflegab. BTW, I have zero tolerance for both deceitful folk as well as NDP "cultists" akin to yourself. Don't EVER want to see you respond to me ever again. Capiche?

I've explained to you three times already about when I decide to look at your posts.

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I've explained to you three times already about when I decide to look at your posts.

But again...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lotuslander's technique, as you see, is *do not acknowledge failure*.  *Do not acknowledge that you flopped in your forecast*, even if your blowhard manner of proclaiming your expertise practically *demands* greater scrutiny than the norm.  And when the flop's brought to your attention, then double down on the "NDP zealots/flakes" invective, i.e. the accusers are a bunch of loser poopy-pants.

Incidentally, on LL's 2017 election blog, he offers this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, if he was so against-the-grain close to the mark in 2013, what happened in 2017?!?

(Then again, he clearly ran out of gas re sustaining said blog:  5 posts, including analyses of only Burnaby and Surrey, and nothing after March 5 but a CATI-cheerleading polling-methodology post from April 30.  I guess it's only within a pack of granola-munching NDP cheerleaders like ourselves that he can overcompensatingly feel like he's Grand Poobah or something)

As always, we seem to disagree with how seriously to take anything he writes.

And, as always, it would be helpful if the moderators here simply banned him because he is clearly a troll whether anything he writes should be taken seriously or not.

I note also, the moderators may not want to ban him because he seems to add some valuable points to the discussion.  In reality, I've noticed that all the stories he posts here that may seem like interesting trivia or valuable knowledge are all taken from articles printed in the day's newspaper (like the story he posted on Glen Clark being on the wrong side of the legislative door.)

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Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

I agree, but there were some things that had to be cleared up first.

Like which types of polling is best and, if it's one of the reasons that the troll hasn't been banned from here, that he really isn't an expert on British Columbia political history, but that he just regurgitates trivia from the articles in the day's newspapers.

[136or142]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

[136or142]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.

Banning corporate and union donations and proportional representation are.  I'm sure the problem is that a 44-43 NDP/Green government would be very unstable.  So, I can understand why Weaver would prefer to be with a 46-41 Liberal led government as long as the Green Party gets its major demands met.

[136or142]

Another small wrinkle. The legislature has to elect a speaker before anything else happens. The incumbent speaker is Linda Reid who is nominally a Liberal and has been an MLA for over 20 years. She is well liked on both sides of the house and wants to stay on. I can guarantee the if stands in the legislature don't change NO ONE from the NDP or the Greens will stand for election to be speaker against Reid. That means that the NDP plus Greens will have 44 seats and the Liberals will have 42 and there are unlikely to be any tie votes for the speaker to break once the NDP takes power and in any case the speaker has to cast deciding votes with the government...so I could see an NDP government with Green support last at least a few years ...enough time to ban corporate and union donations, drastically reduce campaign spending limits, ban all government advertising, boost the minimum wage to $15, start an inquest into all the corruption under Christy Clark that would likely lead to some arrests AND bring in proportional representation which would change the face of politics forever in BC. Of course it will take a few years to actually implement PR and that will give the Greens a huge incentive NOT to cause an early election since any early election,cation would have to be fought under existing FPTP.

Of course if the absentee count flips a seat all bets are off, but if the standings remain 43-41-3 the above is the scenario I expect

Linda Reid is definitely not liked on both sides of the Legislature.

[136or142]

I've heard that the NDP don't mind Reid as speaker...and of course the NDP will prefer ANY Liberal to be speaker to giving up a vote from the opposition side

That could be true.

[136or142]

Recount in Courtenay-Comox increases NDP lead from 9 to 13 votes now absentee ballots are counted.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html

This was the recount. The absentees will be counted tomorrow.

[136or142]

I don't understand why they would do the recount before counting the absentees.

This is British Columbia where logic comes to die.  See the resident troll here for evidence of that.

[136or142]

I think that in ridings where the BC Liberals won by a big margin on election night the absentees will likely pad their leads in raw votes though in almost every case the bC Liberals are beating the NDP by a smaller percentage of the than they got on election night...in the case of Courtenay-Comox it's likely (though not certain) that the NDP will pad its lead with absentees. In 2013 the NDP lost that seat to the Liberals by 2000 votes but won the absentees by 30 votes

Different riding boundaries though in 2013.

[136or142]

Its remarkable how well the NDP si doing over all with the absentees with about half of them counted now

Share of absentee vote   
so far            95,868   
BC Liberals   34,016   35.48%
NDP                   42,876   44.72%
Greens           16,732   17.45%
Other          2,244   2.34%

In 2005, the NDP received the plurality of absentee votes while, at the same time, losing two ridings where they were ahead on election day .  Both of them were ridings with former NDP MLAs trying to make a comeback: Tim Stevenson in Vancouver and Pietro Calendino in Burnaby.  (Also, both had subsequently been elected to their respective city councils.)

[136or142]

Regional vote totals

Vancouver 259,429
N.D.P:   134,241, 51.74%
Liberal:   87,470, 33.72
Green:    34,358, 13.24
Other:       3,361

Lower Mainland (Richmond, Tri Cities, Delta, New Westminster, North Shore, Burnaby - 19 ridings)
Total  431,299
N.D.P:  182,324, 42.27%
Liberal: 174,279, 40.41 
Green:    63,714, 14.77
Other:     10,982

Surrey 193,098
NDP:      88,706, 45.94%
Liberal:   79,469, 41.15
Green:   20,632,  10.68
Other:      4,291

Fraser Valley (Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Langley, Maple Ridge - 9 ridings)
Total: 217,853
NDP:       73,827, 33.89%
Liberal: 105,385, 48.37
Green:    31,990, 14.68
Other:      6,651

Southern Interior (Okanagan, Kootenays, Kamloops, Fraser-Nicola)
Total:  320,562
NDP:      97,183, 30.32%
Liberal: 158,779, 49.53
Green:    55,217, 17.23

North (including North Coast and Powell River-Sunshine Coast)
Total: 156,222
NDP:     55,090, 35.26%
Liberal: 78,425, 50.20
Green: 15,764, 10.01
Other:    6,943

Southern Vancouver Island (Up to Langford - 7 ridings)
Total:     198,659
NDP:    84,225, 42.40%
Liberal: 47,282, 23.80
Green:  64,980, 32.71
Other:     2,172

Northern Vancouver Island (Starting with Cowichan - 7 ridings)
Total: 196,792
NDP:     79,510, 40.40%
Liberal:  65,583, 33.33
Green:   45,733, 23.24
Other:     5,966

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Greater Vancouver - 48 ridings
Total: 1,101,679
NDP:      479,098,  43.49%
Liberal:  446,603,   40.54
Green:   150,693,   13.68
Other:     25,285


Interior (and Coast) - 25 ridings
Total: 476,784
NDP:      152,273, 31.94%
Liberal:  237,204, 49.75
Green:     70,981, 14.89
Other:      16,326

Vancouver Island - 14 ridings
Total: 395,451
NDP:     163,735, 41.40%
Liberal:  112,865, 28.54
Green:   110,713, 28.00
Other:        8,138

----------------------------------------------

Total:     1,973,914
NDP:        795,106 40.28%
Liberal:    796,672, 40.36
Green:     332,387, 16.84
Other:        49,749

[136or142]

WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Comox-Courtney, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

Is this the closest popular vote margin for any recent provincial election?

The 1999 and 2003 Saskatchewan Elections are probably instructive here for B.C. In 1999, the NDP won 29 of 58 seats, and the Sask Party 26 with the Liberals taking 3.  The NDP and the Liberals formed a coalition government, with one Liberal refusing to join after the Saskatchewan Liberal Party Executive voted that it wanted no part of a NDP-Liberal Coalition.  Still, the 31 seat coalition managed to remain in office for a full four year term.

The Sask Party won the popular vote in that 1999 election by 39.6-38.7%

In 2003, The Saskatchewan NDP won a bare majority by 30-28 seats (despite winning the popular vote 44.7-39.4%) yet, again, managed to govern for their entire four year term.