Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

Alright folks, it’s wrapping up. Tomorrow’s weather for the entire state will be horse***t with some bull***t as a side. Southern Wisconsin from LaCrosse to Sheboygan could get hit with 60 mph winds, tornadoes, and hail. Central Wisconsin will get heavy winds and downpours, and north of highway 8 will see freezing rain, snow, and blizzard conditions. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are already out in the Duluth TV market (Douglas, Burnett, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, and Iron Counties). Link to alerts is here, from the Duluth TV station: https://www.wdio.com/weather-alert/

As a result, I’ve made a few minor tweaks to my election model. All counties that contain highway 70 and north (Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, Phillips, Vilas, Iron, Oneida, Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas) I have subtracted two percentage points from turnout. I also subtracted 2 percentage points from Grant, Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Jefferson, Racine, and Kenosha Counties, as these are where we could see tornadoes. While Dane, Iowa, Crawford, Sauk, Columbia, Waukesha, Dodge, and MKE are also in the severe weather area, the storms are moving south to north so they wouldn’t be effected until the last hour or so of voting with minimal impacts. Also, Democrats have a lot of early banked votes up. I expect Election Day votes to lean R about 60/40 or so, so I added up the total number of votes in the aforementioned counties and multiplied it by 0.02 and then again by 0.2 (20% R-lean with a 2% drop) and then by my vote estimates to see how that would change things. The result: Kelly “loses” 1,233 votes due to weather. Additionally, I increased Dane’s turnout by 3% because of high amounts of early voting, which adds another 2,400 votes for Janet. My model ends up with Janet getting a margin of +62,359 votes. I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

Counties won by Janet:
MKE: 63-37
Dane: 83-17
Rock 61-39
LaCrosse 60-40
Eau Claire 59-41
Portage 56-44
Sauk 57-43
Grant 51-49
Columbia 53-47
Douglas 57-43
Dunn 51-49
Pierce 51-49
Green 58-42
Door 53-47
Vernon 56-44
Trempealeau 55-45
Iowa 63-37
Jackson 52-48
Bayfield 57-43
Ashland 55-45 (bad weather reduces tribal turnout)
Richland 54-46
Crawford 54-46
Menominee 68-32

Largest Counties won by Kelly:
Waukesha 62-38
Brown 54-46
Racine 55-45
Outagamie 55-45
Kenosha 52-48
Washington 70-30
Marathon 58-42
Sheboygan 60-40
Walworth 59-41
Fond Du Lac 61-39
St Croix 55-45
Ozaukee 55-45
Dodge 65-35
Jefferson 58-42

Winnebago County TIED.

Reposted to clarify these county results would be a 4.4% Janet win, assuming approx 40% turnout statewide.

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1638524341351530497

[Pres Mike]

When will we know who won?

[Roll Roons]

When will we know who won?

Probably within a couple hours, Wisconsin is generally pretty good about counting.

It's Chicago that we might not know for a while.

[walleye26]

It should be clear who won by about 9 if it’s a blowout, 10:30 if it’s close. WI counts fast. Also, most places dump absentees last, MKE uses a central count location so they usually finish late.

[UWS]

A poll from WMC shows Kelly standing 2 points behind Protasiewicz, that is compared to Protasiewicz’s 4-point lead in March 2. It seems that Protasiewicz has took a hit from the soft on crime accusations against Protasiewicz and the allegations of racism and abuse

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll from WMC shows Kelly standing 2 points behind Protasiewicz, that is compared to Protasiewicz’s 4-point lead in March 2. It seems that Protasiewicz has took a hit from the soft on crime accusations against Protasiewicz and the allegations of racism and abuse

LoL Trump is getting a bump from his arraignment he is now tied with Biden but wait for the polls this isn't a normal Eday cycle ANYWAYS

[Stockdale for Veep]

The literal "pay to un-recuse" smoking gun would have ended this in the era before Scotty Sharkeyes. But, here we are...

Janet +3

(Why don't northern States hold their spring elections in May?)

[Gass3268]

A poll from WMC shows Kelly standing 2 points behind Protasiewicz, that is compared to Protasiewicz’s 4-point lead in March 2. It seems that Protasiewicz has took a hit from the soft on crime accusations against Protasiewicz and the allegations of racism and abuse

So two Republican internal polls showed Protasiewicz winning and you're happy about that?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

This is a very interesting and in-depth take. As a ATOC student an political junkie it’s always a nerd out when they collide. The overall result seems about what I’d expect given the polling we have. Again bravo for the analysis!

[SnowLabrador]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

[Yoda]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

Will you go away for a while if he loses? Or at least stop it with the dooming?

[Brittain33]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process? In my lifetime it happened in Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, several Mediterranean countries, not to mention Eastern Europe. It’s a testament to the people of Wisconsin that they haven’t lost faith in democracy and never stopped fighting for it that this moment may finally come after almost 13 years. It inspires me that the ideals of our leaders aren’t dead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

[DaleCooper]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

[Person Man]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

It seems that the narrative going into 2024 can be affirmed or lost because of this race.

[DaleCooper]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

It seems that the narrative going into 2024 can be affirmed or lost because of this race.

I don't really have a narrative going into 2024. I have no idea what's going to happen. I just don't believe that Wisconsin voters are eager for a white trash Tea Party abortion ban. I could be wrong though.

[Yoda]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

It seems that the narrative going into 2024 can be affirmed or lost because of this race.

There is probably some truth to this. Man, I'm not gonna be able to focus on anything today.

[Steve from Lambeth]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

[Holmes]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

Bold of you to say that when it’s the Republicans in Wisconsin that have gerrymandered the state to hell in order to preserve an undeserved supermajority in the legislature.

[Steve from Lambeth]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

Bold of you to say that when it’s the Republicans in Wisconsin that have gerrymandered the state to hell in order to preserve an undeserved supermajority in the legislature.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin do not have a "supermajority in the legislature," whatever the morality of such a state of affairs may be. They have never been able to override the veto of the current Governor - a Democrat - by themselves.

[Person Man]

What do the polls and early votes say so far?

[Brittain33]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

People in the countries I mentioned were often free to vote, too. And yet the result is that the single party stays in power, no matter what the vote total is.

[Brittain33]

How often do we get to see democratic government return to a corrupt one-party state through a peaceful process?

Every American citizen resident in Wisconsin can join, support, donate to, or vote for the candidates fielded by the Democrat Party of Wisconsin without fear of prosecution.

Bold of you to say that when it’s the Republicans in Wisconsin that have gerrymandered the state to hell in order to preserve an undeserved supermajority in the legislature.

The Republican Party of Wisconsin do not have a "supermajority in the legislature," whatever the morality of such a state of affairs may be. They have never been able to override the veto of the current Governor - a Democrat - by themselves.

An office they stripped of several important powers as soon as it changed from the governing party to the non-recognized party.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.