Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2022/01/27/imposter-electors-tied-to-fitzgerald-kleefisch-and-jarchow/

The fake electors are tied to Fitzgerald, Jarchow, and Kleefisch. Jarchow said if he was elected AG he wouldn’t look into this at all. Gee, I wonder why.

[Drew]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

[lfromnj]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

Assuming this flips R's would have 22 senate seats although Dems have a pretty solid chance of picking up SD13 . It is currently Trump+19 but basically it will face the brunt of the Milwaukee district push westward while taking more of Dane County. On the other hand SD 31 is also there for the GOP to flip.  The remaining Dem seats are either not up or are safe. The Janesville seat is maybe on the very edge of winnable for the GOP.

[Drew]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

Assuming this flips R's would have 22 senate seats although Dems have a pretty solid chance of picking up SD13 . It is currently Trump+19 but basically it will face the brunt of the Milwaukee district push westward while taking more of Dane County. On the other hand SD 31 is also there for the GOP to flip.  The remaining Dem seats are either not up or are safe. The Janesville seat is maybe on the very edge of winnable for the GOP.

SD13 has been moving toward Dems and the GOP could be held to a single digit win depending on redistricting, but I don’t see it flipping in the short term.  The most likely pickup for Dems is probably SD-5 just outside of Milwaukee.  Others to watch would be SD-17 SW of Madison which has stubbornly resisted flipping in its current form, and also SD-19 in the Appleton area.  Maybe SD-1 in Door County in a perfect storm.  Still, I have a bad feeling Dems will lose the 25th and 31st while gaining the 5th, putting them in a superminority in the Senate.

[walleye26]

Once Janet said she was retiring I got the 2010 style vibes, even though WI is so gerrymandered that even slightly changing the districts around should give them a few assembly seats. Anywhere she would have to take in would be more Republican leaning, unless she took in some tribal areas of Sawyer County.

[Drew]

GQP State Rep. Timothy Ramthun running for governor.  Mike Lindell plans to do a rally with him this weekend.  He’s not very good at this whole internet thing:

https://twitter.com/charlespmyers/status/1491618346437165056?s=21

[Schiff for Senate]

GQP State Rep. Timothy Ramthun running for governor.  Mike Lindell plans to do a rally with him this weekend.  He’s not very good at this whole internet thing:

https://twitter.com/charlespmyers/status/1491618346437165056?s=21

I just went to ramthunforgovernor.com and it's still broken.

This guy can't manage a website and he wants to manage the state of Wisconsin!

[Drew]

Today is Spring Primary Day in Wisconsin, with polls closing soon at 8 CT.  Most jurisdictions don’t have a primary today, with some places having municipal or school board races on the ballot today.  The big one to watch today is the special primary in Milwaukee for the mayor’s race, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election in April. 

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1493771899217723399?s=21

Unless the absentees skew much differently, looks like it’s going to be Johnson vs. Donovan.  In other words, a generic D vs. R. race, as Donovan is the GOP-aligned candidate.  It would have been interesting to see how Johnson would do against Dimitrijevic, Lucas, or Taylor in a 2-way race.

[SnowLabrador]

How was Democratic turnout?

[Gass3268]

How was Democratic turnout?

It's a non-partisan election.

[Drew]

How was Democratic turnout?

It’s a nonpartisan election in a state with nonpartisan registration, but not very good across the board:

https://twitter.com/bymattwild/status/1493782642247946248?s=21

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

How was Democratic turnout?

It’s a nonpartisan election in a state with nonpartisan registration, but not very good across the board:

https://twitter.com/bymattwild/status/1493782642247946248?s=21

To be fair a weekday special local primary election sounds like a made up example for the lowest turnout election possible.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wisn.com/article/gableman-gop-election-review-two-mayors-put-in-jail-if-they-dont-cooperate/39148786

Leader of GOP election review wants mayors of Madison and Green Bay put in jail if they don't cooperate

Multiple independent reviews have found no widespread fraud in Wisconsin

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump will endorse someone other than Kleefisch. i think Ramthun will win with the endorsement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro will all win due to downtrend of Omnicron surge

[GreenieGollum]

Who will the Dems nominate for Lt Governor and Treasurer?

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1493771899217723399?s=21

Unless the absentees skew much differently, looks like it’s going to be Johnson vs. Donovan.  In other words, a generic D vs. R. race, as Donovan is the GOP-aligned candidate.  It would have been interesting to see how Johnson would do against Dimitrijevic, Lucas, or Taylor in a 2-way race.

Bathroom Bob is going to lose by 40% again. When you’re known for bathroom peeping, alcoholism and actually saying black culture is destroying the city you know you’re toast.

[Gass3268]

I still think he loses in November, but Evers is pretty popular right now.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1499087344674168838?s=20&t=16D7Cdv-iUnFG...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice to see his approvals are in better shape than expected.

[Xing]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

[Duke of York]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

Full Poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/03/02/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-inflation-fears-up-pandemic-fears-down-marijuana-legalization-up-optimism-about-wisconsin-down-primary-candidates-not-yet-well-known/

[SnowLabrador]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

I agree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

I agree.

Too bad Evers isn't gonna lose according to this poll, he has a 51 percent Approvals

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/03/02/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-inflation-fears-up-pandemic-fears-down-marijuana-legalization-up-optimism-about-wisconsin-down-primary-candidates-not-yet-well-known/