Glasgow East by-election

[afleitch]

An SNP win here would not surprise me considering the movement towards the SNP in this part of Glasgow in both local and Holyrood elections since 2005 coupled with the current political climate. There have also been interesting demographic changes in parts of this seat closer to the city centre in the past 3 years.

At the Holyrood level; there is also a by election in Motherwell and Wishaw scheduled for whenever Jack McConnel shifts his ass to Malawi. It will either be late this year or in the new year.

[afleitch]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

[afleitch]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

That he may stand down, again due to 'ill health.' I don't know much about him so I can't comment.

[afleitch]

Davena Rankin, former candidate for Glasgow South has been selected for the Conservatives in Glasgow East. Here union background (she's pretty high up within UNISON; chairs the Scottish Women's Committee and is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch etc) may have helped her here.

She won't win of course but all the best to her.

[afleitch]

Quick run down.

Margaret Curran. Probably the best MSP Labour has and will make their job of winning both votes and holding up turnout easier. A line will be drawn under her name for Scottish Labour leader however for the time being. Which will hurt Labour in the long term as a result

The YouGov Poll. Ignore. People are on holiday, and while I am pleased to see polling companies target by-elections, the demographics are so skewed in Glasgow East you just can't poll it even as part of a national poll. As for the national poll itself, the possibility of the SNP being ahead nationally in Westminster can be considered reasonable. The SNP as a party, simply by being the government regardless of its capability changed their image of a 'cannae win' outsider party overnight

Timing. Crafty at first glance. The week of the by-election is the Glasgow Fair holiday. Probably up to 1 in 4 voters will not be in the city that week. Except in Glasgow East, where long standing economic hardship coupled with the current climate will depress that number. It may hit turnout in the more middle class areas of the seat. And there are some, despite media reports to the contrary (it contains the north part of the Football Belt - where present and past Old Firm footballers live which gives an indication of the housing stock)

Result. I predict what can only be called an 'embarrasing Labour win' which will go largely unnoticed and will change the dynamics in Scottish politics not one jot. The SNP can of course win here. If they do then the story is very different.

[afleitch]

ICM poll: Lab 47, SNP 33, LDem 9, Con 7, Oth. 4

The record of constituency polls is poor, the record of by-election polls is worse and I don't see this as being an easy area to poll under any circumstances. So treat wi' a salt mine or three.

It looks better than the other poll with regard to the Tory and Lib Dem shares, but has probably been designed to look that way anyway. It's got the betting folk stirred a little which is predictable.

But yes, disregard.

[afleitch]

Also of note is that the SNP are using this as a 'dry run' for their campaign to unseat Gordon Brown in his own seat next time round. If they win this, put a little flutter on Gordon loosing his seat. It is still highly unlikely but certainly worth a bob or two in risk.

Much more likely is the probability of the SNP vote share overtaking that of Labour. Not perhaps as a result of a depresion in the Labour vote, but simply the transferral of the 'not Labour' vote from the Lib Dems to the SNP. While such a swing would be unlikely to dent Labours lead in seats (the SNP themselves are aiming for 12-15 seats) on closer inspection Labour losses in 'the right places' for the SNP and other parties is certainly a possibility. Not least, for the Tories wishing to scalp Alistair Darling (unless of course he is dropped from his post or even the Cabinet in a re-shuffle - it may just save him if the night is really bad for Labour)

[afleitch]

http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/exclusive-glasgow-east-labour-fakes-93.html

[afleitch]

Glasgow by-elections since 1945

12th Feb 1946: Glasgow Cathcart CON HOLD Labour Government

24th August 1946: Glasgow Bridgeton ILP HOLD Labour Government
This was upon the death of Jimmy Maxton. ILP vote collapsed and the Labour Party polled a close second

28th January 1948: Glasgow Camlachie CON GAIN from ILP Labour Government
An odd one this. The late Campbell Stephen won this seat for the ILP however joined the Labour Party shortly before his death. The then Manchester Guardian wrote Camlachie's chief warning is ... that a government candidate cannot even rouse the slums

30th September 1948: Glasgow Gorbals LAB HOLD Labour Government

25th November 1948: Glasgow Hillhead CON HOLD Labour Government

That was 5 by-elections in the one city in the 1945-50 government. It demonstrated nothing other than the ILP was a spent force.

25th October 1950: Glasgow Scotstoun CON HOLD Labour Government.

13th March 1958: Glasgow Kelvingrove LAB GAIN from CON Conservative Government

16th November 1961: Glasgow Bridgeton LAB HOLD Conservative Government

22nd November 1962: Glasgow Woodside LAB GAIN from CON Conservative Government

9th March 1967: Glasgow Pollock CON GAIN from LAB Labour Government

3rd October 1969: Glasgow Gorbals LAB HOLD Labour Government

8th November 1973: Glasgow Govan SNP GAIN from LAB Conservative Government
Swing 26.7% from LAB to SNP.

13th April 1978: Glasgow Garscadden LAB HOLD Labour Government

26th June 1980: Glasgow Central LAB HOLD Conservative Government Swing 13.95% from LAB TO SNP

25th March 1982: Glasgow Hillhead SDP GAIN from CON Conservative Government
The Tory candidate for this seat, Gerry Malone was of course involved in the 1997 Winchester re-run. He is also, somewhat embarrassingly, attended my old school.

2nd December 1982: Glasgow Queen's Park LAB HOLD Conservative Government

10th November 1988: Glasgow Govan SNP GAIN from LAB Conservative Government Swing: 33.1% from LAB to SNP

15th June 1989: Glasgow Central LAB HOLD Conservative Government Swing: 15.1% from LAB to SNP

23rd November 1999: Glasgow Anniesland LAB HOLD Labour Government Swing: 7% from LAB to SNP

[afleitch]

Just back from Glasgow East.

Oh the things I wish I could tell you

[afleitch]

If that wasn't the case it'd be a surprise...

True, but would you expect (total) turnout to be as low as 20-25%? That's the current estimate.

In an East End seat during the Glasgow Fair? Yes I probably would unfortunately. Now give us a suburban seat where the Tories are behind Labour and we'd get a different picture. Our lot are more motivated.

[afleitch]

Well hello...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4380787.ece

Good news if it holds.

[afleitch]

Well hello...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4380787.ece

Good news if it holds.

Wouldn't high turnout (or, at least, exceptionally high turnout) be good for Labour? I would imagine the SNP want turnout to be just high enough that they get all of the angry people out to vote but not so high that the characteristically disinclined to vote urban Labour supporters start showing up.

In a seat like Glasgow East it is probably neither good or bad for Labour or anyone else at the moment. Which is why half the Cabinet have visited - to test the waters. They cannot let the Labour ehatlands go the way of Glasgow East even if Labour win. A narrow Labour victory here is still a disaster.

[afleitch]

What a scorcher of a day. This is election weather.

[afleitch]

Nothing to suggest that Lab will get good news from Glasgow East even if they hold the seat.

Of course. This race should never have been at the stage to be called close

[afleitch]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

EDIT - Or wrong...naturally

[afleitch]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

What were that [qm]

Nothing major.

It's about what 'our' lot were doing. All parties saturated this seat with campaigners, in particular the Tories who usually wouldn't bother their arse in a seat like this. As such we got alot of 'vocal' indications of what Tory leaners were doing. And if they are as keen as every other Tory to give Brown a bash then we will perform worse than our returns indicated.

[afleitch]

BBC report turnout of 'about 48%'

Which I'm not sure about - as it was a 48% turnout last time.

[afleitch]

Now they say 41%

People are wondering about the effect of having two Currans on the ballot.

[afleitch]

No one is really taking any chances here. Both parties seem pretty mute and if it is that close, then I'd expect a recount.

[afleitch]

far too long to stay sane.

Thus, this is like certain Assembly seats in the Welsh elections last year.

In Scotland it was different. We knew Labour were 'running away with it' in Hamilton South at about 10.15 because the screens constantly updated the tally. Then everything crashed. And everyone still knew the result, they just couldn't announce it

[afleitch]

Oh come on already!



It's probably Mt Vernon holding everyone up...

For space filling purposes, Chris' parents live in Garrowhill in the seat. If the winning partywins by 2 votes I'll be on the phone....

[afleitch]

Official turnout is 42.25% (!!!)

Tories take 3rd.

I am beginning to wonder if Mr Masons's base is beginning to come in now if the Tories have opened up a gap. It was Tory held until 1980 and there is still a fairly generous share there.

[afleitch]

Even if the seat is held, Labour should launch an inquiry into this fiasco; not because it's a one-off awful result in the depths of a Midtermland coloured by less than wonderful economic news, but because it isn't (though obviously economic gloom, the general unpopularity of the government, the popular Scottish government, etc are all factors. Not enough though). This, no matter who wins, easily fits into a long pattern of appalling by-election results in Scotland in areas that shouldn't even be close, let alone lost or tottering-on-the-brink. Something, somewhere is seriously wrong, has been for at least fourty years and unless the problem is spotted and fixed ghastly Scottish by-elections will remain ever-looming... and that will be as true when we are in opposition as when we are in government. What I cannot understand is why this hasn't been done already; it's not as though Labour is so unwilling to learn from its errors elsewhere in Britain. Then again, are people even aware that something is seriously wrong [qm].

Half a rant, half a ramble. Still. Hmm.

You've got a point. The close ones too, like Hamilton South in '99 and even Monklands East in 1994. To almost loose John Smith's seat (The Monklands Affair aside) was pretty shocking. However this is a safe, solidly safe, Labour seat in the East End of Glasgow. I've bolded that because it's so obvious and you're well aware of that, but it highlights the extraordinary position that Labour find themselves in.

The issue for Labour in Scotland is that unlike in England they have dominated everything since the 50's. Even in years like '83 they held disproportionate power in local government and in Westminster. Historically that is Labour's success story, but it has bred two generations of un-opposed politicians. They have created the Wendy Alexanders of the world, who were bright and successful but were never challenged from the electorate and no one ever challenged them internally. Wendy is an example of a 'spoilt' politician who no-one ever said no to.

What hurts Labour is the loss of those who did know challenge, not necessarily politically but institutionally. I won't go over the top on the Smiths, Cooks, Dewars and Robertsons of the past but professionally they operated within circles whereby Labour aspirations for equality of opportunity were still an ongoing fight. Likewise for the old duffers in the unions.

But now the institutions are no longer in natural opposition to Labour. Labour itself has become institutionalised and in government it has relied on it's old self belief in the success of it's policies on poverty for example but has became detached from the organisations that exist in places like the East End. The old Labour Party and the former councillors worked closely here in the past and now they feel sidelined. (Which left them in the position of opening up communications with Iain Duncan Smith during the past few years) This is because there is opposition to some Labour policy and there was very vocal opposition to Labour's benefit plans this week (though the big talking point was Thatcher's state funeral) but

Loose David Marshall, someone who maintained these links and the fall I think is harder.

It's just that usually Labour don't last this long. In fact they never have, even taking the 8 years in power in Holyrood before they were booted, never mind the 11 in Westminster. So Labour across the UK is being exposed to something strange and unusual.

[afleitch]

John Mason has arrived at the count and is being applauded and looks to be celebrating.