Glasgow East by-election

[Dan the Roman]

So will this give new life to the 'When will Gordon Quit?" stories? Trick question: When is the last time Labour ousted a Leader?













Answer: 1922 When James Clynes was ousted(I am not counting 1931, because technically Ramsey McDonald left the party, and the creation of the National Government was a unique circumstance)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SNP majority smaller than the vote for the other Curran. Read into that whatever you like.

Anyway. We'll get it back next General Election. Which doesn't change the fact that it's an awful, awful, awful result and I stand by what I wrote earlier in the night; an indication of general government woes, economic worries, the popularity of the SNP government at Holyrood and the state of flux the Scottish Labour Party was in anyway it might well be, there's something else at work here. Might well be time for lessons to be learned, fourty years later than they should have been.

Anyway. I won't be buying a newspaper until Monday at least.

[Verily]

SNP majority smaller than the vote for the other Curran. Read into that whatever you like.

Anyway. We'll get it back next General Election. Which doesn't change the fact that it's an awful, awful, awful result and I stand by what I wrote earlier in the night; an indication of general government woes, economic worries, the popularity of the SNP government at Holyrood and the state of flux the Scottish Labour Party was in anyway it might well be, there's something else at work here. Might well be time for lessons to be learned, fourty years later than they should have been.

Anyway. I won't be buying a newspaper until Monday at least.

Given the high turnout, isn't it at least possible that the SNP will actually manage to hang on in a GE?

I also sense the possibility that this is a bit of a premonition for a major shift in Glasgow politics specifically away from Labour. Who, after all, have had an iron grip on the city for ages, but Glasgow is still the sh*thole of Scotland. Might be some resentment that maybe the SNP's "Scotland first" attitude is better for Glasgow, or at least untested whereas Labour might be seen to have not helped.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So will this give new life to the 'When will Gordon Quit?" stories?

Presumably (yaaaawnz. unless he himself has a strange, strange approach to honour). But probably only for a few days (weeks in the Sundays, maybe)... for we are entering High Silly Season.

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Define "oust". No Labour leader has been defeated in a leadership challenge since the real birth of the post. But George Lansbury was clearly ousted in the '30's though not directly (cases can also be made for Callaghan and Blair, though there are problems with both) and a certain Scot with a moustache was simply expelled from the Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the high turnout, isn't it at least possible that the SNP will actually manage to hang on in a GE?

The majority is simply too small for him to have a hope in hell of hanging on (note also that the Llafur vote was above 40%). Even if he polls all his votes from tonight, plus more, he'll still lose. He'll know that himself, though I doubt he'll care. It really is almost beside the point. The SNP will gain in other places anyway (unless the Salmond government is destroyed by some massive scandal between now and then and that's hardly likely).

Flashback: turnout in the last Govan by-election was just under 60% and Sillars won by over 3,000 votes. He was soundly beaten in '92

. Good SNP by-election results don't usually happen because of poor turnout, but because of a perfect storm of protest (generally for several different reasons) and tactical voting and some form of discontent with some form of Labour that helps them in their best areas, makes it harder for Llafur in their better areas and encourages one-time switchers (in the last Govan by-election this was IIRC mostly due to the Godawful candidate IIRC). Replicating that in the next General Election has almost always been next to impossible (the sole exception was the near-miss in Dundee East in 197...3 I think). Or something that looks awfully like that.

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There is a shift in Glasgow away from Labour (they would have lost a lot of council seats in 2007 even without the shift to PR; a foreshadow was repeated awful local-byelections in the city), but its been going on for a while and I don't think that this will be a premonition of anything in that respect.

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A long time, but not ages. Local politics in Glasgow was occasionally competative until the late '70's or early '80's IIRC. Forget which. Minor quibble though.

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Hardly. Glasgow has more than its fair share of problems, but it's a better place in almost all ways than it was a couple of decades back (most of the awful tower blocks, for instance, are gone now). Overall its reputation outside Scotland is really not deserved at all. Nicer place than Edinburgh, anyway.

Just realsied that I wrote "Llafur" instead of Labour a few itimes here. Hah. I need lsesleep then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Answer: 1922 When James Clynes was ousted(I am not counting 1931, because technically Ramsey McDonald left the party, and the creation of the National Government was a unique circumstance)

Clynes was the incumbent Chairman of the PLP and not the Leader; the position of Leader and Chairman was created in 1922. In hindsight tis a great shame that he lost to MacDonald. Oh well.

[Dan the Roman]

Well in hindsight McDonald's record of party loyalty was decidedly mixed.

[Verily]

Just realsied that I wrote "Llafur" instead of Labour a few itimes here. Hah. I need lsesleep then.

Is "Llafur" Welsh for "Labour"?

[MaxQue]

Yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_Labour_Party

[The Man From G.O.P.]

So.... what does this mean really??


Just another kick to the nuts for Labour? Will the seat be back to red in '10? Or is something more.. sinister at work?

[Хahar 🤔]

So.... what does this mean really??

Just another kick to the nuts for Labour? Will the seat be back to red in '10? Or is something more.. sinister at work?

Seems like a referendum on Brown, plain and simple. This seat will, of course, be super-marginal. I can't tell either way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So.... what does this mean really??

It means that the new M.P for Glasgow East is John Mason.

You should have used a word other than "really"

[Harry Hayfield]

CNN International Headlines (in order of broadcast):
Obama speaks in Berlin
SNP gain Glasgow East

Quote from last night: "This will be the first and last time that John Mason and Barack Obama will be mentioned in the same programme!"

[Silent Hunter]

Well, that was awful.

Judging by Al's comment, it's not as bad as it seems. Unfortunately, perception is 9/10 of a war and I've got the feeling that is our Orpington.

More on the blog later.

[minionofmidas]

Calculated the percentages...

J Mason (SNP): 11,277 43.1% (+26.1)
M Curran (Lab): 10,912 41.7% (-19.0)
D Rankin (Con): 1,639 6.3% (-0.6)
I Robertson (LD): 915 3.5% (-8.3)
F Curran (SSP): 555 2.1% (-1.4)
T McLeish (Sol): 512 2.0%
E Duke (Grn): 232 0.9%
C Creighton (Ind): 67 0.3%
H Howitt (F4C): 65 0.2%

[minionofmidas]

Smaller swing than the two Govan debacles, btw.

[afleitch]

SNP majority smaller than the vote for the other Curran. Read into that whatever you like.

Looking at what happened in 2007 (and the contrast with voting patters in '03) where smaller parties like the SSP/Solidarity didn't stand, without the 'other Curran' the SNP majority would probably have been higher.

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Thank you Al. And for shame Verily

The tower blocks have gone due to the housing stock transfer away from Council control (and the hessitation of some Labour councillors to back demolition (and dispertion) in the past of what were effectively towers of 'condensed' Labour support ) We had a period this year of around a demolition a week.

The city economy is booming, though as in all cities it takes time for that to effect the poorest areas. We are the best outside London for shopping and out tourism is booming. Glasgow is not the city it was even a few years ago. In short it's an urban renaissance that complements Manchester, Liverpool etc.

Edinburgh is struggling. Culturally and socially it's in a malaise. Now that it's a proper administrative capital it's became that little bit more boring

[Silent Hunter]

What's the murder rate like in Glasgow these days?

[Harry Hayfield]

The BBC has just produced an interesting graphic:

Composition of the House of Commons 2005: Lab 54% Con 30% Lib Dems 10% Others 6%

June 2008 Average of Opinion Polls: Con 45% Lab 26% Lib Dem 19% Others 10%

Nothing wrong with that you may think, but explain this:

Lib Dems 2005: 62 seats (10% of total)
June 2008 Average: 35 seats (which is not 19% of the total despite the fact there's a massive 19% above the Lib Dem benches)

The actual seat tallies produced in the graphic are: Con 201 Lab 110 Lib Dems 35 Others 15

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Smaller swing than the two Govan debacles, btw.

Well this time round the Labour candidate wasn't a traincrash. Then again, I don't know anything about the Labour candidate in the first Govan debacle.

[Silent Hunter]

40% isn't that bad in most elections. Here though...

[minionofmidas]

Smaller swing than the two Govan debacles, btw.

Well this time round the Labour candidate wasn't a traincrash. Then again, I don't know anything about the Labour candidate in the first Govan debacle.

I think the main reason may well be the SNP started from an already slightly higher base.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Smaller swing than the two Govan debacles, btw.

Well this time round the Labour candidate wasn't a traincrash. Then again, I don't know anything about the Labour candidate in the first Govan debacle.

I think the main reason may well be the SNP started from an already slightly higher base.

The first Govan debacle was closer than I thought it was; must have had a tiny electorate as well.

[afleitch]

Smaller swing than the two Govan debacles, btw.

Well this time round the Labour candidate wasn't a traincrash. Then again, I don't know anything about the Labour candidate in the first Govan debacle.

I think the main reason may well be the SNP started from an already slightly higher base.

The first Govan debacle was closer than I thought it was; must have had a tiny electorate as well.

Yes. Glasgow had crazy seats back then. Glasgow Central was the first to declare in 1979 and had about 2 voters or something.Remember the whole Govan thing was after the UC Shipbuilders debacle where Labour didn't come through for them and the strike leaders had a cosy arrangement with the local SNP party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. Glasgow had crazy seats back then. Glasgow Central was the first to declare in 1979 and had about 2 voters or something.

Thought it was more like three

Btw, any idea how the different parts of the constituency voted [qm]. There were cryptic references throughout the night to turnout being better in the best areas for the SNP (but they never mentioned what they were) than in the best areas for Labour (ditto) but that's all. A little annoying when compared to all the drivel written about the place over the past few weeks.