Glasgow East by-election

[Harry Hayfield]

Westminster : Glasgow East

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Result 2005
David Marshall, Lab    18775   60.68%
Lachie McNeill, SNP     5268   17.02%
David Jackson, LDm     3665   11.84%
Carl Thomson, Con     2135    6.90%
George Savage, SSP     1096    3.54%
Labour majority of 13,507 (43.66%)
SNP swing needed to gain 21.83%

[afleitch]

An SNP win here would not surprise me considering the movement towards the SNP in this part of Glasgow in both local and Holyrood elections since 2005 coupled with the current political climate. There have also been interesting demographic changes in parts of this seat closer to the city centre in the past 3 years.

At the Holyrood level; there is also a by election in Motherwell and Wishaw scheduled for whenever Jack McConnel shifts his ass to Malawi. It will either be late this year or in the new year.

[afleitch]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

[afleitch]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

That he may stand down, again due to 'ill health.' I don't know much about him so I can't comment.

[Silent Hunter]

Labour *should* hold Glasgow East. Then again, that's only a "should"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

That he may stand down, again due to 'ill health.' I don't know much about him so I can't comment.

Where's the rumour coming from [qm]. It's not in any of the sort of places where I'd expect it to be (unless it's very new).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour *should* hold Glasgow East. Then again, that's only a "should"

I can't quite remember how the Holyrood seats fit into this one, but I think it's mostly Glasgow Baillieston, which went...

Labour 53%, SNP 30%, Con 7%, LDem 6%, some random fundamentalist 3%

Some also in Shettleston I think; result there much the same, SNP slightly stronger.

That's not a prediction, but might be useful anyway.

Random odd fact; in Baillieston the Labour majority was quite a bit higher in 2007 than 1999. But in Shettleston, the reverse be true.

[Rural Radical]

Labour *should* hold Glasgow East. Then again, that's only a "should"

We should hold this with a majority of this size.

What chances of a retread (former M.P.) running for this seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We should hold this with a majority of this size.

Should, yes. But Scottish Labour's by-election record is appalling.

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Probably pretty low; I doubt the CLP would want someone from outside Glasgow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By-election will be on the 24th of July.

How likely is McConnel to resign his seat as well now [qm].

[Harry Hayfield]

Scottish Labour by-election record 1997 - 2007
February 2nd 2006: Dunfermline and West Fife: Lib Dem GAIN Lab -17%
September 29th 2005: Livingston: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
December 21st 2000: Falkirk West: Lab HOLD Lab -16%
November 23rd 2000: Glasgow, Anniesland: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
September 23rd 1999: Hamilton South: Lab HOLD Lab -29%
November 6th 1997: Paisley South: Lab HOLD Lab -13%

Average Labour Change: -16%

[Rural Radical]

Scottish Labour by-election record 1997 - 2007
February 2nd 2006: Dunfermline and West Fife: Lib Dem GAIN Lab -17%
September 29th 2005: Livingston: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
December 21st 2000: Falkirk West: Lab HOLD Lab -16%
November 23rd 2000: Glasgow, Anniesland: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
September 23rd 1999: Hamilton South: Lab HOLD Lab -29%
November 6th 1997: Paisley South: Lab HOLD Lab -13%

Average Labour Change: -16%

Based on those figures irt should be a labour hold.

[Verily]

Scottish Labour by-election record 1997 - 2007
February 2nd 2006: Dunfermline and West Fife: Lib Dem GAIN Lab -17%
September 29th 2005: Livingston: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
December 21st 2000: Falkirk West: Lab HOLD Lab -16%
November 23rd 2000: Glasgow, Anniesland: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
September 23rd 1999: Hamilton South: Lab HOLD Lab -29%
November 6th 1997: Paisley South: Lab HOLD Lab -13%

Average Labour Change: -16%

Based on those figures irt should be a labour hold.

Glasgow Govan, which is certainly more comparable, tells a different story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Govan_by-election%2C_1988

Interestingly, the betting markets seem to have decided that the SNP are the favorites ()

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Glasgow Govan, which is certainly more comparable, tells a different story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Govan_by-election%2C_1988

And the other Glasgow Govan by-election in 1973. And the Hamilton by-election of 1967. And the Motherwell by-election of 1945.

But I'd be careful about drawing anything out of past by-election results other than the fact that Scottish Labour has a proven ability to lose in places where they've no business losing.

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Says more about the sort of people who bet on election results than anything else.

[afleitch]

Davena Rankin, former candidate for Glasgow South has been selected for the Conservatives in Glasgow East. Here union background (she's pretty high up within UNISON; chairs the Scottish Women's Committee and is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch etc) may have helped her here.

She won't win of course but all the best to her.

[Hash]

Davena Rankin, former candidate for Glasgow South has been selected for the Conservatives in Glasgow East. Here union background (she's pretty high up within UNISON; chairs the Scottish Women's Committee and is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch etc) may have helped her here.

She won't win of course but all the best to her.

What are her chances for a third place?

[Verily]

Davena Rankin, former candidate for Glasgow South has been selected for the Conservatives in Glasgow East. Here union background (she's pretty high up within UNISON; chairs the Scottish Women's Committee and is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch etc) may have helped her here.

She won't win of course but all the best to her.

What are her chances for a third place?

I would say pretty good. I think Lib Dems are much more likely to vote tactically for the SNP than Conservatives, especially the sorts of both you might find in Glasgow East.

[Verily]

The SNP candidate is local councillor John Mason. Ex-MSP Frances Curran will stand for the SSP and get a derisory vote. Solidarity is not standing a candidate. The Liberals Democrats are running Ian Robertson; I don't know anything about him. He's probably just a paper candidate.

[Hash]

Could somebody explain why some (not necessarily on here) are talking about a possible SNP gain? Or did I misunderstand?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could somebody explain why some (not necessarily on here) are talking about a possible SNP gain? Or did I misunderstand?

They are talking about it being possible because Scottish Labour's by-election record is awful and has been for at least sixty years (maybe even longer; can't quite remember).

[Verily]

Could somebody explain why some (not necessarily on here) are talking about a possible SNP gain? Or did I misunderstand?

They are talking about it being possible because Scottish Labour's by-election record is awful and has been for at least sixty years (maybe even longer; can't quite remember).

And because the SNP has managed gains on gigantic swings in the past, similar to what you might have expected from the Lib Dems against Labour in 2003-2005 or against the Conservatives 1995-1997. Of course, the SNP has been very inconsistent about such gains, but they tend to come when Labour is very unpopular, like right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some rather strange goings on recently. George Ryan (a local councillor and the overwhelming favourite for the Labour nod) pulled out of the selection process last night (in an incredibly subtle way; he just didn't turn up to the selection meeting), citing family reasons. Not quite as messy as the start to the Southall by-election last year, but messy all the same (may be worth noting that both East Glasgow and Southall are machinelands).

Random rumours about new candidates apparently include one of the local MSP's (Margaret Curran; who's also a would-be leader of Scottish Labour) and Steven Purcell, the leader of the City Council.

[Verily]

For those keeping score at home, MSP Margaret Curran will be the Labour candidate. Which makes two Currans on the ballot, an amusing but probably irrelevant event.

Solidarity is running Tricia Leish, and the Greens are running Eileen Duke. Both are no-names.

[MaxQue]

For those keeping score at home, MSP Margaret Curran will be the Labour candidate. Which makes two Currans on the ballot, an amusing but probably irrelevant event.

They are in the same family or they only have the same family name?