ME-UNH: Clinton +7 overall, -2 in ME-02

[Seriously?]

So +7 in the state and -2 in ME-02? Rough math makes the swing between the two districts 16% to get a +7 statewide result. So it's Clinton +14 in ME-01.

Seriously?

There was a 7% difference in 2012. And there's a 7% difference with Cook PVI D+9 for ME-1 and D+2 for ME-2. So... ummmm. no...

[Seriously?]

There's no way she's only up 7 in Maine at large. Still, in a close race, ME-02 could be close, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

She's at Obama 2012 numbers with an average of C+5ish in the nationwide polling.

Clinton +7 in ME is plausible (Obama took it by roughly 6 in 2012). The ME-01/02 split is not. If the state ends up C+7, Clinton takes all 4 EVs.

[Seriously?]

There's no way she's only up 7 in Maine at large. Still, in a close race, ME-02 could be close, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

She's at Obama 2012 numbers with an average of C+5ish in the nationwide polling.

Clinton +7 in ME is plausible (Obama took it by roughly 6 in 2012). The ME-01/02 split is not. If the state ends up C+7, Clinton takes all 4 EVs.

Wait, what? Obama won it by 15% in 2012, and won ME-02 by 8.5%!

You are correct. Math was not my friend there....