Elizabeth Warren 2020 campaign megathread

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Ideologically, Warren may be my favorite Senator, and I think she’s highly capable and highly intelligent. I must echo everyone else’s concerns about her political skills and electability, though, which is why she would not be my first choice in the primary. I would still vote for her over Sanders or Biden, but not over Harris or Gillibrand.

I think maybe we should reserve some of our judgement until the primary really ramps up, though. She’s never been in a national race before and maybe she can surprise us, so I don’t want to write her off yet. But I’m skeptical.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

It's funny that a year or two ago I actually thought Warren would be a great unifier of the party. She's certainly liberal enough for the Sanders types but is actually a member of the Democratic Party (unlike Sanders) and has shown some respect for political logistics (refusing to endorse either candidate in the 2016 primary, etc.). Now, it appears that she has made a lot of enemies in the party. In fact, it appears that the farthest left faction of the party, despite once appearing to be her core base, has turned on her the most. All I've seen on Twitter today is liberals focusing on a few relatively inconsequential foreign policy differences they have with her and her not endorsing Sanders in 2016, and thus declaring her a "fake progressive." (Not to say that what we see on Twitter is perfectly indicative of her odds in 2020, but...) I mean, I don't really like to be the "think practically!" guy, but the nitpicking is getting pretty absurd. If she's not liberal enough for you, you're gonna have a hard time coming to terms with the realities of the 2020 primary, because if Sanders doesn't run, she's clearly the most progressive candidate you're going to get.

I personally think that the whole Native American debacle should be pretty inconsequential, but I actually do think it has negatively impacted her, not necessarily because Democrats dislike her personally any more than they did before but because now they more deeply question her political skills and electability. I don't think that's unfair.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

That's a good video, and I'll be happy to vote for her in November 2020 if she's somehow the nominee, but let's get real - she's an awful candidate (at least against Trump) and one of the most likely Democrats to blow what should be a very winnable election.

Just out of curiosity, which states exactly do you think she would underperform in vs. say, Kamala Harris.

Arizona for one, and likely Florida as well.

I would certainly add NC, VA, and NV to that list as well. (Although I’d don’t doubt that she would still win the latter two, they would be closer races than they would be if Harris was the nominee.)

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

For anyone interested in an anecdote about her event in Toledo today (which is the first town hall I’ve ever been to):

She focused heavily on unions and trade (which obviously was suitable for her audience), the wealth tax, the environment and green energy, and electoral/ethics reforms (ending gerrymandering, curbing lobbying, etc.). She almost entirely ignored abortion and gun control, and she only made a passing comment about immigration. Definitely seemed to be tailoring her content towards working class Rust Belt types, but I don’t know for sure how much she really changes her stump speeches from place to place.

For what it’s worth coming from one of her supporters, I genuinely found her to be a fantastic speaker and quite funny (and not just in terms of rehearsed lines, but also including witty responses to in-the-moment happenings).