Pennsylvania 2012 Why no Romney Effort?

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

[Badger]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

The key word being "his" numbers, which unsurprisingly were shown to be only one step less ludicrously hackish that unskewedpolls.com, which is saying quite a lot. Every other pollster back in realityland showed PA out of reach.

[Badger]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

The key word being "his" numbers, which unsurprisingly were shown to be only one step less ludicrously hackish that unskewedpolls.com, which is saying quite a lot. Every other pollster back in realityland showed PA out of reach.

So the more liberal pollsters showed it out of reach. We get it.

Corrected.

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

So what do you think of left-wing hacks?

At least they tend not to post their tripe on EVERY damn thread.

Hint, hint.

[Badger]

I think Obama underperformed in PA vs what another generic (white) Dem would do. Lets not forget that Obama was talking about PA when he made his "cling to their bibles and guns" comment. Hillary would easily reverse the trend and any GOPer going up against her would probably be throwing away money in PA.

Pennsylvania is losing population in the west and it's caused a rightward trend throughout this century. They were leaning Democrat and now the western part of the state is leaning Republican.

Re-read these last two lines of your post and you'll realize why that's not happening soon.

[Badger]

What I think happened, was that the eastern side of Pennsylvania stayed largely the same. But the western side swung (or trended) far enough right, to combat the loses of population in some areas.

This is incorrect. The Philly region (primarily the surrounding suburban counties) have grown steadily in population, particularly compared to the State as a whole, and especially Western PA. Likewise, Democratic registration in SE PA boomed over the last two decades.

It's a little (emphasis here) like VA: The fastest growing area of the state (NOVA) is also that where the Democrats share of registered voters is growing fastest. Likewise, the once traditional Democratic area (SW coal country VA) where Republicans are making the fastest inroads is also the region with the lowest population growth in the state.

[Badger]

Another way of thinking about the rightward trend of western PA is about age. When the steel industry crashed, it meant the Pittsburgh area lost a cohort that came of age in the 70s. This compounded and means fewer young adults today as well. Now with the Democratic Greatest Generation dying, the conservative Silent Generation is overrepresented in SW PA. I think this explains its demographic trends about as well as anything.

Yeah, PA is only slightly behind FL for % of seniors, surprisingly. IIRC that elderly population is particularly slanted in Western PA.