Israel general discussion

[danny]

New poll from channel 10:

Likud: 26
Bayit Yehudi: 16
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Labor: 13
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 8
New Kachalon Party: 7
Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Movement: 5
"Arab parties": 10

[Hnv1]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

[politicus]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Why did they choose such an odd number as 3,25%?

[danny]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Why did they choose such an odd number as 3,25%?

I believe that It's a compromise.

[danny]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Polls only show how things are like when the poll is taken. Obviously there will be changes until the election.

[Hnv1]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Why did they choose such an odd number as 3,25%?

Livni wanted 2.5 or 3% libermaan wanted 4% or to abolish democracy, and like a truly great Israeli legislation it ended with a bad compromise

[danny]

A Knesset channel poll without Kachlon:

Likud: 25
Jewish Home: 20
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 12
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 8
Hatnua: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM: 3
Balad: 3

[Famous Mortimer]

Minister of Internal Affairs and Likud number 2 Gideon Sa'ar has resigned the Knesset.

Rumor is, he is going to link up with former Likud MK Moshe Kahlon. Kahlor has been planning to set up his own party. The thing is though, Kahlon's gimmick is that he's economically "left-wing" and Sa'ar is a pretty generic conservative. Having him in the new party would take away its raison d'etre and pretty much make it just "Likud 2"

So that fact led to a new rumor, that Sa'ar and Kahlon are going to work together to topple Netanyahu as Likud leader.

Also worth noting, Netanyahu is planning to appoint Likud number 3 Gilad Erdan as ambassador to the UN.

If Sa'ar and Kahlon do end up forming their own party, it means Netanyahu will have basically gotten rid of anyone who could challenge him for leadership.

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh, and Sa'ar will be replaced in the Knesset by the next person on the Likud Beytenu list (even though Likud Beytenu doesn't exist anymore) who is a member of Yisrael Beytenu.

With that loss of a seat, Yesh Atid becomes the largest party in parliament.

[Hnv1]

Minister of Internal Affairs and Likud number 2 Gideon Sa'ar has resigned the Knesset.

Rumor is, he is going to link up with former Likud MK Moshe Kahlon. Kahlor has been planning to set up his own party. The thing is though, Kahlon's gimmick is that he's economically "left-wing" and Sa'ar is a pretty generic conservative. Having him in the new party would take away its raison d'etre and pretty much make it just "Likud 2"

So that fact led to a new rumor, that Sa'ar and Kahlon are going to work together to topple Netanyahu as Likud leader.

Also worth noting, Netanyahu is planning to appoint Likud number 3 Gilad Erdan as ambassador to the UN.

If Sa'ar and Kahlon do end up forming their own party, it means Netanyahu will have basically gotten rid of anyone who could challenge him for leadership.

Can't see Sa'ar going to be a number 2 for Kahlon (Who I can't see how anyone would describe as left wing on economics). If anything there is a rumour Haaretz have some investigating report in the making on Sa'ar indecent conduct in a Tel Aviv bar (which makes sense as the rumours in the political swamp had ran on that for years).
Also I would add that Kadima was a Likud 2, and to a degree Yesh Atid is likud 2 in a way as well (more similarties with moderate likud than Labour as I see it).

regarding the seat count as I understood it Bibi will demand one of Liberman's minister resign from the knesset as well

[Famous Mortimer]

Balad is trying to unite the Arab parties to overcome the new threshold. If it does happen, it looks like it will just be Balad and the UAL. Hadash will stay out of it. If it doesn't happen, Balad will probably boycott.

[danny]

new channel 10 poll:

Likud: 22
Jewish home: 17
Yesh Atid: 12
Labour: 12
Kachlon: 11
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
UTJ: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnua: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4

[danny]

Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 21
Jewish Home: 16
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Kachlon: 9
UTJ: 8
Shas: 7
Hatnua: 5
Hadash: 5
RAAM TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

[MalaspinaGold]

New Smith/Globes Poll: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/10/31/smithglobes-poll-likud-24-bayit-yehudi-15-labor-14-yisrael-beitenu-10-yesh-atidkachlon-9-each/
Likud- 24
Habayit Hayehudi- 15
Labor- 14
Yisrael Beitenu- 10
Yesh Atid- 9
Kachlon- 9
UTJ- 8
Meretz- 8
Shas- 7
Hadash- 5
Hatnuah- 4
Raam Taal- 4
Balad- 3

Any guess on if/when Kachlon makes the jump?

[danny]

Any guess on if/when Kachlon makes the jump?

He's definitely running. If you mean making a formal announcement and saying who he is running with, then he might wait until he knows when the election will happen.

[MalaspinaGold]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

[danny]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

He will probably be part of any coalition since there is no reason he can't be in a coalition with any particular party.  But with the current polls Labour isn't forming a government anyway, no one is forming a government with 14-16 seats while being the third largest party.

[MalaspinaGold]

I guess I'm asking the question. Since the Likud-Beitenu packed dissolved, if he were to get a large surge of support (a la Yesh Atid), and he got the largest number of seats (unlikely, but possible), would he want to ally with Labor or with Likud/YB/HH?

[Famous Mortimer]

He would have to ally with the right because the left wouldn't have enough to put him over the top. They wouldn't even have enough to put him over the top before he took half of their votes away, so especially not after.

If you're asking who he would prefer to form a coalition with if the right and left blocs where 50/50 (which would never happen). Probably still the right. He was a Likud member for a long time. He even endorsed Likud after he resigned the Knesset.

[danny]

I guess I'm asking the question. Since the Likud-Beitenu packed dissolved, if he were to get a large surge of support (a la Yesh Atid), and he got the largest number of seats (unlikely, but possible), would he want to ally with Labor or with Likud/YB/HH?

This is very hypothetical, but a party formed by Kachlon would have many possibilities, not just two.

[MalaspinaGold]

Yeah, I was thinking Shas/UTJ might join a coalition based on left-wing economics. Not sure about Yesh Atid (or if they're even still around).

[Famous Mortimer]

Vote on Monday on easing the process of conversion to Judaism.

It will probably fail. Livni has said she will leave the government if it does although there's a chance she'll stay anyway.

There's also a small chance it will actually pass.

Netanyahu is likely secretly hoping it fails so that he can maintain good relations with Shas and UTJ for future coalitions.

[danny]

That is one hypothetical option, but you can come up with 10 different reasonable options if you wanted to. Coalitions don't actually have to be based on anything in particular other than that those are the parties that want to be in the coalition and managed to come to agreeable terms for both sides, even if the terms are all about which ministries to control and money for the right sector.

[danny]

Yeah, I was thinking Shas/UTJ might join a coalition based on left-wing economics. Not sure about Yesh Atid (or if they're even still around).

Yesh Atid are not left wing on economics,  but that wouldn't stop them from joining a government, joining Shas and UTJ  would be a problem though.

[MalaspinaGold]

New poll from NRG:
Likud: 21
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 15
Yesh Atid: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kahlon: 7
Hatnuah: 5
Hadash: 5
Raam-Taal: 4