EP elections 2014

[Tayya]

MP being so high and SD so low makes that poll look like a huge outlier.

MP tends to overperform in EP elections, partly thanks to right-leaning environmentalist voters not having to care about putting a left-wing government in place. SD's voters are hard to turn out, many of them being low-income and presumably low-info voters.

The EP polls are more volatile, though, since turnout can shift more considerably than in the national elections. EP polls being rare doesn't help.

[Jens]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today
First line is the poll in percent
Second line the result in 2009
The lineup is: Social Democrats (A, S&D), Social Liberals (B, ALDE), Conservative (C, EPP), SF (F, Greens), Liberal Alliance (I, ?) People's Movement against (N, GUE), Danish People's Party (O, EFD), Venstre (V, ALDE)
Conservatives retain and Social Liberals gains a mandate because of electoral alliances.


DF largest party... sigh

[Diouf]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

[Tender Branson]

Turnout could actually increase here compared with 2009, a new poll for the ÖGfE shows:

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections on May 25 ?"

48% Yes, definitely
19% Likely, yes
15% Likely not
  8% Definitely not
10% Undecided

http://www.oegfe.at/cms/uploads/media/Grafiken_EP_0414.pdf

History (also in polls taken before federal elections) shows that only those who say "I will definitely vote" and a few of those who say "likely, yes" will actually turn out.

A ÖGfE poll taken just before the 2009 elections showed the following:

39% Yes, definitely
31% Likely, yes
12% Likely not
13% Definitely not
  5% Undecided

http://www.ifes.at/sites/default/files/downloads/1243943202_PRESSEUNTERLAGE.pdf

...

Actual turnout in the election was 46% then.

Which means that there's a chance for a 50%+ turnout this year.

[Tender Branson]

The current poll also shows that Austrian voters do not think that the parties are currently discussing/treating the issues well enough that are important to voters:

30% Yes, the parties are discussing/treating them well enough
51% No

...

Which issues are most important to you in the EP election campaign ? (multiple choices possible)

19% Energy/Environment/Climate/Animal Protection/Consumer Protection
15% Social Policy/Health/Pensions
12% Migration/Asylum/Borders/EU-Enlargement
  9% Tax- and Econmic Policy/Freetrade agreement between EU/US
  9% Jobs/(Youth-)Unemployment/Wages
  9% Financial Policy/Crisis Management/Euro
  8% Education
  7% National Identity/Centralism/Bureaucracy
  5% Solidarity/United Europe
  4% Security Policy/Ukraine/Peace/Common Foreign Policy
  1% Corruption/Lobbying/Transparency
15% Other issues
28% Don't know

[Jens]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

It do look like an outliner - Turnout will probably also be significant. DF voters are more likely to stay home

Have you tried SF's talking posters?

[Diouf]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

It do look like an outliner - Turnout will probably also be significant. DF voters are more likely to stay home

Have you tried SF's talking posters?

Yeah, normally they would be more likely to stay home, but i don't know whether that's the case now. Have you seen any polls with crosstabs? I actually think DF now could have almost ukippish numbers with a massive lead among the 60+ which are generally more likely to turn up than younger voters.

I've barely seen a SF poster yet, so that's a no. Nice initiative though

[Diouf]

Some ehh... interesting views from the leader of the Congress of the New Right which currently looks like crossing the threshold in Poland and getting three seats.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/124011

[Zanas]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

Oh?  What crime did a fetus ever commit?

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

[Franzl]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

[afleitch]

Survation (another out of the ass poll) for Britain

UKIP 31%
LAB 28%
CON 24%
LIB 7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I understand that that is literally how they produce their numbers.

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

Ok so as long as we don't talk about it being the "sanctity," we're justified in saying it's more of a priority for us to protect innocent, defenseless life, right?

And before this turns into a flame war, let's note who started by questioning the credibility of those opposed to abortion/in favor of the death penalty.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Change the record comrades, or the player will be abruptly smashed.

[Franzl]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

Ok so as long as we don't talk about it being the "sanctity," we're justified in saying it's more of a priority for us to protect innocent, defenseless life, right?

And before this turns into a flame war, let's note who started by questioning the credibility of those opposed to abortion/in favor of the death penalty.

You're kind of moving the goalposts here. It's not about priorities. Of course you can reasonably say that.

That's not at all equivalent to supporting the death penalty.

[Tender Branson]

From the ÖGfE poll:

"Which of these people would you vote for as Commission President ?"

18% Juncker
14% Schulz
22% None of these people
31% I don't know those names
15% Undecided/No opinion

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

Ok so as long as we don't talk about it being the "sanctity," we're justified in saying it's more of a priority for us to protect innocent, defenseless life, right?

And before this turns into a flame war, let's note who started by questioning the credibility of those opposed to abortion/in favor of the death penalty.

You're kind of moving the goalposts here. It's not about priorities. Of course you can reasonably say that.

That's not at all equivalent to supporting the death penalty.

I'm going to respect the moderator's wishes (the post clearly immediately above yours) and not engage beyond this point.

[doktorb]

*wanders into thread*

*speed reads*

*wanders out again*

[Middle-aged Europe]

*wanders into thread*

*speed reads*

*wanders out again*

Thank you for stopping by.

[Tender Branson]

Found the first 2009 ORF projection for Austria on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjLh2I2Io8

The first "exit poll" (actually it's not an exit poll, because it is based on already-counted precincts) was very good and almost identical to the final results.

Only the FPÖ-share was a bit too high, mostly because the FPÖ always loses big when the postal votes are counted the Monday after the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please behave. Final warning to all concerned.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anti-immigrant UKIP hiring immigrants, not British people, to deliver their leaflets.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/07/ukip-eastern-european-leaflet-distribution-_n_5279567.html?1399473398&utm_hp_ref=uk

[Tender Branson]

McPomm (= German state) EU poll by Infratest dimap for NDR: