Predict the Next Democratic Wave

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LeBron, don't assume two years out that the president's approval rating will be at ~50% come election night 2016. You might point to his ongoing bump, but I would point to the fact that the president had a bump after the 2010 midterms as well - in fact, that boost was larger than the one he had right now (he was at 49/44 Approve at this time four years ago). It happens for a very simple reason - Obama's not perceived as a hero of some sort or as an indisputable embarrassment - so his approval is based on the rhetoric around him. When candidates are attacking him, it goes down into the low 40's, when it's the off season, it gets to the high 40's or low 50's.

Now, what happened with the 2011 bounce? It went away. In the summer of 2011, once republicans began running for president and started actively criticizing Obama again, Obama's approval cratered to the low 40's (Eventually, Obama's great campaign and Romney's terrible one got it to 50/47 Approve by election day 2012, but that's beside the point.).

So, basically, you're assuming either the bump Obama's getting now will last from now until 2016, which, if the last campaign means anything, probably won't happen, or you're assuming that Hillary will be such a great campaigner that she'll lift Obama's approval as she's lifting her own.

Bottom line - Don't use the word 'will', as it implies a chance painfully close to 100% of an event, which you can never use two years out politically, barring things like Senate Races in AL going republican (because AL residents would vote for a dog with an R next to its name over any democrat).