Predict the Next Democratic Wave

[LeBron]

I'm surprised nobody has said the obvious 2016 yet. Yes, there is the fact that a party doesn't tend to benefit when their President leaves office after the 8th year, but Obama's approval is/will be around a nice 50% in 2016 with an even stronger Democrat running in Hillary to replace him all in a year where turnout will be very strong.

That and the Presidential map and congressional map favor Democrats. Dems should expect at least 237 in the electoral college and all they need are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia to get to that 270 which shouldn't be much of a problem (especially when they have plenty of other options beyond that).

As for the Senate, it's already guaranteed there's a net gain for Democrats here. It's a matter of how many. But keep in mind, in 2012 Democrats had a terrible map and still made net gains. In 2016, the GOP is defending seven Obama 2012 seats and more like NC and AZ. It will probably be a sizable gain enough to regain the majority. And in the House, I don't think it will flip, but even 2012 which was considered a small kind of wave only saw a handful of House gains. Democrats might get more votes in the whole state itself but gerrymandering will screw Democrats over here. Still, the party should be able to do even better than 2012's House gains given where some of these Republican-held seats are located, and Republicans are nearly maxed out right now in the House.