538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups

[Gass3268]

Democrats currently sit at a 62.5% of taking back the Senate. Democratic chances were only at 51.4% on October 9th but there have been generic congressional poll has really started to break for the Democrats recently (Ipsos +10, NBC +6, Fox +6, Morning Consult +5).

Odds:

Colorado 95.7% (D)
Illinois 88.4 (D)
Wisconsin 87.3% (D)
Indiana 62.9% (D)
Pennsylvania 57.2% (D)
New Hampshire 55.4% (D)
-------------------------------
Nevada 50.8% (R)
Missouri 58.2% (R)
North Carolina 58.3% (R)
Florida 73.1% (R)
Louisiana 86.2% (R)
Kentucky 88.7% (R)
Ohio 95.4% (R)  

[Gass3268]

There have already been some changes since this morning

[Gass3268]

Going with the polls-plus model (that's the one I used above, and the one that you are directed to right away): 65.3%

Odds:

Colorado 95.9% (D)
Illinois 89.0 (D)
Wisconsin 88.6% (D)
Indiana 66.7% (D)
Pennsylvania 59.7% (D)
New Hampshire 55.6% (D)
Nevada 53.7% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 55.2% (R)
Missouri 56.0% (R)
Florida 74.5% (R)
Louisiana 84.6% (R)
Kentucky 87.6% (R)
Ohio 95.1% (R)

[Gass3268]

Looks like the coattails have arrived!

Yeah, the generic congressional poll is sitting around 5 points and it appears to be growing. This is definitely not enough to take the House, but probably enough to take the Senate.

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 77.4% D
Polls-Only - 75.3% D
Nowcast - 84.2%


Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.7% (D)
Wisconsin 95.1% (D)
Illinois 90.5 (D)
Indiana 69.8% (D)
New Hampshire 63.67% (D)
Pennsylvania 62.4% (D)
Missouri 61.2% (D)
Nevada 60.6% (D)
North Carolina 54.4% (D)
-------------------------------
Florida 70.4% (R)
Kentucky 72.4% (R)
Louisiana 83.1% (R)
Arizona 89.2% (R)
Ohio 95.1% (R)

They are currently projecting 7 Democratic pick ups.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.

The big jump recently came from negative trend lines for the Republican candidates.

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 74.9% D
Polls-Only - 72.6% D
Nowcast - 75.0%


Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.7% (D)
Wisconsin 94.3% (D)
Illinois 90.2 (D)
Indiana 71.8% (D)
New Hampshire 62.8% (D)
Missouri 60.7% (D)
Nevada 59.0% (D)
Pennsylvania 58.1% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 53.6% (R)
Florida 72.7% (R)
Kentucky 73.6% (R)
Louisiana 84.2% (R)
Arizona 91.8% (R)
Ohio 95.8% (R)

California 91.9% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 72.8% D
Polls-Only - 71.6% D
Nowcast - 70.8% D


Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.5% (D)
Wisconsin 93.6% (D)
Illinois 89.5 (D)
Indiana 70.2% (D)
New Hampshire 67.1% (D)
Missouri 58.9% (D)
Nevada 57.1% (D)
Pennsylvania 55.4% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 56.9% (R)
Kentucky 73.5% (R)
Florida 74.3% (R)
Louisiana 84.1% (R)
Arizona 92.7% (R)
Ohio 95.9% (R)

California 91.6% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.

Harry Enten says that the Last Week Has Been Very Kind To Democrats’ Hopes For A Majority

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 74.1% D
Polls-Only - 72.4% D
Nowcast - 77.5% D

Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.9% (D)
Wisconsin 94.6% (D)
Illinois 91.9 (D)
Indiana 69.9% (D)
New Hampshire 66.8% (D)
Missouri 61.7% (D)
Pennsylvania 57.8% (D)
Nevada 56.8% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 59.5% (R)
Kentucky 72.0% (R)
Florida 77.3% (R)
Louisiana 85.1% (R)
Arizona 93.1% (R)
Ohio 96.0% (R)

California 91.7% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.