India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

TN 1967

1967 is the first year elections were held for TN (it was called Madras) using the state borders which match today so it is the best place to start.  Politics in Madras up until 1967 was dominated by the INC machine lead by INC party boss Kamaraj.  Up until 1967 it was a battle between regionalism DMK trying to create an alliance to defeat INC and always falling short.    In 1967 DMK finally put together a grand coalition that cross Left and Right which includes Communists/Left (CPM FBL), Socialists (PSP SSP), and the Right (INC Right wing splinter SWA).  Riding the populist wave of anti-Hindi agitation DMK+ won in a landslide against INC.   
             
                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+             233            180              52.82%
 DMK              173             137              40.52%
 SWA                26              20                5.26%
 CPM                21              11                 4.06%
 PSP                  4                4                  0.89%
 SSP                  2                2                 0.51%
 FBL                  1                1                 0.29%
 Ind.                  6                5                 0.87%

DMK rebel         8                1                  0.87%

INC+            234              51                 41.46%
 INC              233              51                 41.28%
 Ind.                 1                0                   0.18%

INC rebel         6                0                    0.34%

CPI               32                2                    1.80%

The defeat of INC was comprehensive.  CPI did not join the grand alliance but enough of the anti-INC vote was concentrated to break the INC hold on power.  DMK led Annadurai came into power with Annadurai as the first non-INC CM of Madras which he rename Tamil Nadu (TN).

[jaichind]

TN 1971

Soon after DMK came into power several things took place.  Annadurai passed away paving the way for Karunanidhi to become the leader of DMK and also the CM of TN.  INC encountered a major split into Leftist INC(R) led by Indira Gandhi and Rightist INC(O).   INC party boss Kamaraj sided with INC(O) and as a result in TN INC(O) is strong and INC(R) fairly weak.  To break her INC(O) rivals Indira Gandhi aligned with DMK in TN and pretty much made a deal not to run candidates in TN but back DMK in TN elections.  CPI which became an ally with INC(R) also aligned with DMK.  INC(O) then formed a Rightist opposition to DMK-INC(R) and is joined by SWA and SOP (which is renamed from SSP).  At the national level INC(O)-BJS-SWA-SOP formed an anti-INC(R) alliance.  Mid-term elections were soon called in TN to test out the power of the two blocs.  The result was a massive landslide for DMK+ was INC(R) was able to swing enough of the old INC vote base to ensure DMK victory.


                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+               234           209              55.02%
 DMK                 203           184              48.58%
 CPI                     10              8                2.32%
 FBL                      9              7                 1.71%
 PSP                      4              4                 0.94%
 MUL                     2              2                 0.44%
 Ind.                     6              4                 1.04%

 CPI rebel             1              1                  0.20%
 DMK rebel           2              1                  0.18%

INC(O)+           234           22                 40.07%
 INC(O)             201           15                 34.99%
 SWA                  19             6                   2.95%
 SOP                    2              0                   0.24%
 Ind                   12              1                   1.88%

INC(O) rebel        6             0                    0.39%
SWA rebel           1             1                    0.09%

CPM                  37             0                    1.65%

CPM could not back INC(R) nor go with the Right so it contested alone.  Support from INC(R) to DMK more than made up for the loss of SWA and SOP from the DMK+ front to INC(O) front.  This election broke the power of Kamaraj INC machine.  In the aftermath a good part but not all of the INC(O) base when over to INC(R) which became just INC.   This election result mirrored the INC(R) victory at the national LS election held in the same year.   The split of the INC machine between INC and INC(O) meant that DMK will dominate politics going forward.  Of course that just created a vacuum for DMK to split with AIADMK spliting out from DMK in 1972 led by Ramachandran (also known as MGR.)

[jaichind]

TN 1977

AIADMK led by MGR which split from DMK in 1972 became a new pole TN politics.  INC remained divided as well between INC and INC(O).  Then the Emergency of 1975-77 realigned national politics where SOP PSP SWA INC(O) and BJS all merged into JNP to opposed Indira Gandhi INC.    In TN this mean that the old INC machine which is now under INCO) merged into JNP with SWA SSP and SOP. DMK also broke with INC due to DMK's opposition to the Emergency. When assembly elections in TN was finally called after the end of the Emergency it became a 4 bloc battle between DMK AIADMK INC and JNP.  AIADMK came out with a majority of seats in this 4 way contest.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+              231            48               24.98%
 DMK                230           48                24.89%
 Ind.                    1             0                   0.09%

AIADMK+        233           144               34.68%
 AIADMK          200           130               30.36%
 CPM                 20             12                 2.79%
 RPI                    1               1                 0.21%
 Ind.                 12               1                 1.32%

INC+              231             32                20.51%
 INC                198             27                17.50%
 CPI                  32               5                  2.90%
 Ind                   1                0                  0.10%

INC rebel           4                0                  0.23%

JNP+              234             10                16.77%
 JNP                233             10                16.67%
 Ind.                   1               0                  0.10%

JNP rebel           9                0                  0.58%

The vote was split 4 ways and AIADMK established itself as the new dominate party of TN with MGR as CM.  At the national level JNP came into power with AIADMK actually backing INC for the LS elections even as AIADMK contested separately from INC at the assembly level.   Same for DMK and JNP where they contested as allies in the LS elections even they contested separately in the TN assembly elections.  JNP coming in last even as it won at the national level means that it will continue to lose its vote base over to the other three blocs.

[jaichind]

TN 1980

After 1977 the new JNP national government became to fall apart over time which led to the mid-term elections in 1980.  AIADMK DMK INC and JNP swapped partners with DMK-INC taking on AIADMK-JNP in TN.  DMK-INC won in a landslide over AIADMK-JNP.  This defeat put confidence of the AIADMK TN government into jeopardy.  MGR decided to call a mid-term TN assembly election to restore confidence in the AIADMK regime.  MGR decided to dump JNP feeling that anti-JNP sentiment in the 1980 LS election was what sunk him.   AIADMK won re-election with a significant margin and increased majority.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+              234            69             44.44%
 DMK               112            37              22.10%
 INC                114            31              20.92%
 Ind.                   8              1                1.42%

INC rebel            5              0                0.42%
DMK rebel           8             0                 0.57%

AIADMK+        234         162               49.28%
 AIADMK         177          129               38.75%
 CPM                16            11                 3.16%
 CPI                  15             9                 2.66%
 GKC                10             6                  1.71%
 AIFB                 2             1                  0.35%
 INC(U)              3             0                  0.28%
 Ind.                 11            6                  2.37%

AIADMK rebel     9             1                  0.94%

JNP                  95             2                  2.77%

AIADMK was able to win by putting together an coalition of Communist parties (CPI CPM) as well as INC splinters (GKC JD(U)) and was able to capture the anti-DMK anti-INC vote by pushing aside JNP without the baggage of the JNP government.  DMK and INC was able to hold their vote bases from 1977 but had to deal with the loss of CPI to AIADMK+ as well as the consolidation of the 1977 JNP vote bloc behind AIADMK+.   AIADMK again showed its dominance over DMK.

[jaichind]

TN 1984

After the AIADMK returned to power in 1980 it sought to have support at the center while INC is looking to from a winning alliance in TN.  So over time AIADMK and INC formed an alliance with CPM and CPI switching to DMK from AIADMK in response.   JNP also allied with DMK.  When Indira Gandhi was assassinated MGR called an election to cash in on the sympathy wave for INC.  The result was another landslide victory for AIADMK+

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+              234             34               39.72%
 DMK               169              24               29.65%
 CPM                 16                5                 2.76%
 JNP                   15               3                 2.23%
 CPI                   17               2                 2.62%
 TNC                   5                0                 0.70%
 Ind.                 12                0                 1.76%

DMK rebel         17                0                 1.10%

AIADMK+        234            199               54.64%          
 AIADMK         154             132              36.88%
 INC                 70               61               16.05%
 GKC                 4                  2                 0.56%
 AKD                 1                  1                 0.22%
 Ind                  5                  3                 0.93%

AIADMK rebel    9                  1                 0.89%
INC rebel           1                  0                0.06%
 
INC(J)             36                  0                 0.51%

BJP                 15                  0                 0.25%

DMK managed to get CPI CPM and JNP on board as well as INC splinter TNC.  AIADMK kept INC splinter GKC in its alliance and also got the Dalit based AKD as well along with INC.  There were rebels on both sides but overall the combined strength of AIADMK and INC was too much for DMK+ especially in light of the sympathy way for INC due to the Indira Gandhi assassination.   After the election GKC would merge back into INC.  MGR won 3 elections in a row but this will be his last as he will pass away in 1987.

[jaichind]

TN 1989

MGR passed away in 1987 which immediately sparked a split in AIADMK.  MGR's widow Janaki Ramachandran was made leader of AIADMK and CM of TN.  But MGR's protege Jayalalitha challenged this succession and projected herself as the leader of AIADMK which split into two factions AIADMK(JL) for Jayalalitha and AIADMK(JR) for Janaki Ramachandran.  New elections were called.  INC decided to contest on its own to try to recapture lost political space.  The result was a 4 way battle between DMK+ AIADMK(JL) AIADMK(JR) and INC.  CPI went with AIADMK(JL) while CPM stayed with DMK.  DMK+ would easily with its 1984 foes split into three blocs but AIADMK(JL) showed itself as the more popular faction and legitimate heir of MGR.  The various AIADMK candidates ran either under AIADMK(JL) or AIADMK(JR) or as AIADMK rebels.  There a few AIADMK MLAs who had the backing of both AIADMK factions and ran as AIADMK.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+                234          169              37.99%
 DMK                 202           150             33.18%
 CPM                   21             15               3.53%      
 JNP                    10              4                1.17%
 Ind.                     1              0                0.11%

DMK rebel             1              0                0.06%

AIADMK(JL)+    229            32              23.92%
 AIADMK(JL)      198           27               21.15%
 CPI                    12             3                 1.22%
 Ind.                   19             2                 1.55%  

AIADMK(JL) rebel  3             0                 0.15%
CPI rebel               1            1                  0.06%

AIADMK(JR)+    220            3               11.32%
 AIADMK(JR)      175           2                 9.26%
 AIFB                    5            0                 0.13%
 Ind.                   40            1                 1.93%

AIADMK+            5              2                 0.65%
 AIADMK              4              2                0.62%
 Ind.                    1              0                0.03%

AIADMK rebel     27             1                1.12%

INC+                233          26               21.18%
 INC                 214          26               19.83%
 MUL                    5            0                 0.36%
 Ind.                  14            0                 1.00%

INC rebel             1             0                 0.07%

BJP                    31            0                  0.37%

The DMK under Karunanidhi  was returned to power after 12 years winning in a fractured election.  INC+ showed its strength but at the same time also showed the limits of its strength that it is not able to win on its own with its 20% vote base.  AIADMK of all factions were smashed as a result of the split of the AIADMK vote.  But the election showed that AIADMK(JL) was the more popular faction and all AIADMK blocs immediately reunited under the leadership of Jayalalitha with Janaki Ramachandran retiring from politics.  AIADMK at least became united again to fight another day.
 

[jaichind]

TN 1991

After the 1989 elections a new party emerged in TN in the form of PMK which tends to represent the Vanniyar caste which is dominate in Northern TN.  The 1991 LS elections saw the assassination of INC leader Rajiv Gandhi in TN.  The culprit was LTTE which many suspect had the sympathy and perhaps support of the DMK government in TN.  Although under MGR's AIADMK regime in the 1980s there were also tacit AIADMK support for LTTE the AIADMK and INC demanded that the DMK government be dismissed for its role in the assassination.   TMK which was led by movie start Rajendar split from DMK but after not be able to get into the AIADMK+ front eventually contested in the DMK+ front. The new election saw the DMK completely crushed in the sympathy wave for AIADMK+ due to Rajiv Gandhi.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+                234            7                 30.30%
 DMK                 175            2                  22.45%
 TMK                    10            2                   1.51%
 CPM                    22            1                   3.15%
 JD                       15            1                   1.69%
 CPI                     10            1                   0.16%
 AIFB                     1            0                   0.16%
 Ind.                      1            0                   0.10%

AIADMK+         234          225                 59.79%
 AIADMK           168          164                 44.39%
 INC                   65           60                  15.19%
 ICS                     1             1                    0.22%

AIADMK rebel       6             1                    0.42%

PMK+               208            1                     6.16%
 PMK                 194            1                    5.89%
 MUL                  14             0                    0.26%

BJP                    99             0                    1.70%

JNP                    75            0                     0.21%

DMK+ was wiped out with Karunanidhi barely winning his seat.  DMK actually managed to assemble a front with CPI CPM as well as with JD.  It also got DMK splinter TMK aboard as well.  But the AIADMK+ wave was too strong.   The scale and vote share of the AIADMK+ was unprecedented and unmatched before or since in TN politics.   After 2 short years AIADMK is back in power with Jayalalitha as CM.

[jaichind]

TN 1996

Once Jayalalitha came into power she immediately started to alienate INC whose alliance was key to the AIADMK comeback.  It then got to the point where INC broke off ties with AIADMK.  The new AIADMK regime also seems to be notoriously corrupt culminating with a world record breaking wedding for her adopted son with 150K guests costing up to $100 million.  In the meantime DMK experienced another split with MDMK led by DMK leader Vaiko in 1993 based on a more radical agenda for LTTE support.  After the MDMK split TMK merged back into DMK.  By the time 1996 came around both INC at the center and AIADMK in TN were experiencing strong anti-incumbency tides.  INC face massive rebellion at the national level with rebels aplenty and a vertical split of the national INC with the creation of the splinter AIIC(T).  INC decided that it must hang together or hang separately and reestablished ties with AIADMK.  This provoked a split in the INC where an anti-AIADMK splinter TMC was created.  TMC decided to ally with DMK.  At the national level JD was trying to create a Third Front which allied regional anti-INC parities as well as the Left Front.  In TN JD was opposed to including TMC in this alliance while DMK insisted on it.  This led to a split in the Third Front in TN where DMK-TMC-CPI ran as a bloc while JD ran with MDMK and CPM.  PMK tied up with the INC splinter AIIC(T).  But the anti-AIADMK trend was so strong that even this split failed to stop an massive landslide against AIADMK.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+               234           221              53.77%
 DMK                 182           173              42.07%
 TMC                   40             39                9.30%
 CPI                    11              8                 2.21%
 AIFB                    1              1                 0.28%

AIADMK+         234              4               27.16%
 AIADMK           168             4                21.47%
 INC                    64             0                 5.61%
 Ind.                     1             0                 0.08%

AIADMK rebel     17             0                  1.27%

PMK+               214            5                  5.37%
 PMK                 116           4                  3.84%
 AIIC(T)              46            0                  0.77%
 JNP                    50            1                 0.55%
 ICS                     2             0                 0.20%

MDMK+           233             2                 7.89%
 MDMK            177             0                  5.78%
 JD                   16              1                  0.43%
 CPM                 40             1                  1.68%

BJP                 143            0                   1.81%

The AIADMK+ bloc was wiped out with Jayalalitha losing her own seat.  The vote share for the AIADMK+ bloc reached unprecedented lows after reaching an unprecedented high in 1991.  The split of anti-AIADMK vote between DMK+ PMK+ and  MDMK+ did not stop the landslide.  DMK under Karunanidhi  is returned to power once again.  In the aftermath of this landslide  the trend toward a balance of power asserted itself as despite Jayalalitha's antics, PMK and MDMK began to migrate closer to AIADMK to counter DMK+TMC.

[jaichind]

TN 2001

After the DMK returned to power in a landslide, the very size of the DMK+ lead led other players in TN to rally against it.  In the 1998 mid-term LS elections PMK and MDMK joined forces with AIADMK along with the BJP to beat back DMK-TMC.  AIADMK then became the key party keeping the NDA government afloat at the center.  This lead to the return of an arrogant Jayalalitha which again provoked PMK and MDMK who were key in giving AIADMK this key position.  Then AIADMK had a falling out with BJP and pulled down the NDA government.  In the 1999 LS elections AIADMK allied with INC while all anti-AIADMK (BJP MDMK PMK) parties rallied behind DMK with TMC exiting DMK bloc to protest the inclusion of BJP.  AIADMK-INC suffered a setback as a result.


In the buildup to the 2001 elections the humble Jayalalitha emerged again to create an anti-DMK bloc and using the existence of the BJP in the DMK bloc to rally TMC INC CPI and CPM.  In the end PMK joined up with AIADMK+ but MDMK decided no to join and contest separately.  Alliance with BJP consigned the DMK in the wilderness in terms of allies and could only get various minor caste based parties like PT(Dalits), MTD(Yadava), TB(Muthirayar), CNMK (Kongu) and minor AIADMK splinters (MADMK PNK MGRK).   AIADMK+ won in large but not massive landslide.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+              234            37                38.67%
 DMK               183            31                 30.92%
 BJP                  21              4                   3.19%
 MADMK             3               2                   0.46%
 PT                   10               0                  1.27%
 MTD                  6               0                  0.92%
 PNK                  5               0                   0.70%
 MGRK               2               0                   0.49%
 TB                    1               0                   0.16%
 CNMK               1               0                   0.14%
 Ind.                  2               0                   0.41%

DMK rebel        14              0                   1.02%
BJP rebel           1               0                   0.04%

AIADMK+       234          196                 50.11%                  
 AIADMK         141          132                 32.64%
 TMC                 32           23                   6.73%
 PMK                 27           20                  5.56%
 INC                 14             7                   2.48%
 CPM                  8             6                   1.68%
 CPI                   8             5                   1.59%
 AIFB                 1             1                   0.14%
 MUL                 1             0                    0.13%
 Ind.                 2             2                    0.37%

AIADMK rebel    5             0                    0.42%
TMC rebel          4            1                     0.35%
INC rebel           4            0                     0.22%
MUL rebel          1            0                     0.06%
PMK rebel         1             0                     0.03%

MDMK          164             0                     1.79%

There were rebels abound on both sides given the changes of partners from last election but it seems that rebellions hurt both blocs about equally.  AIADMK swept back into power with Jayalalitha as CM.  Of just like previous patterns, Jayalalitha is good a keeping friends when she is down but always drive them away when she is on top.  After she is back in power she started to drive away allies like INC TMC and PMK that helped her get back to power.  Soon after the 2001 elections TMC merged back into INC.  

[jaichind]

TN 2006

In a recurring pattern, once Jayalalitha is back in power she start alienating her allies.  As the 2004 LS election approached, DMK saw its chance for a comeback.  DMK quit the NDA and all other non-BJP parties jumped aboard the DMK bloc which includes INC PMK MDMK CPI CPM.  AIADMK was forced to ally with BJP and lost all 39 TN seats in the 2004 LS election.  DMK had hoped to keep the same alliance into the 2006 assembly elections but with AIADMK humbled in 2004 there was less drive in 2006 to keep the 2004 mega alliance together.  MDMK in the end went with AIADMK who dropped BJP seeing it adding not much and acting as a lighting rod for anti-BJP votes while the rest of 2004 mega alliances remained with DMK.  AIADMK also got the Dalit based VCK on board as well. As the election approached DMDK led by film superstar Vijayakanth emerged to challenge both AIADMK and DMK.  In the end MDMK going with AIADMK and DMDK taking some of the anti-incumbency vote kept the scale of the AIADMK defeat to fairly small margins by TN standards.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+               234            163            44.75%
 DMK                132              96             26.46%
 INC                   48              32               8.38%
 PMK                  31              18               5.65%
 CPM                  13                9               2.65%
 CPI                   10                6               1.61%
 
DMK rebel           3                0                0.13%
PMK rebel            2               0                0.13%
INC rebel             2               0                0.12%
CPI rebel             1                0               0.09%

AIADMK+         234            69              40.06%
 AIADMK           188            61             32.64%
 MDMK               35              6               5.98%
 VCK                   9               2               1.29%
 JD(S)                 1               0               0.07%
 Ind                    1               0               0.08%

IVP                     1               0               0.10%
AIADMK rebel      4               0               0.17%

DMDK              232              1               8.38%

BJP                  225              0               2.02%

BSP                 164             0                0.79%

There were not many rebels most because many DMK or AIADMK rebels could contest on DMDK.  IVP which is a AIADMK splinter I counted as a AIADMK rebel.  DMDK made a significant impact with its fairly large (for a non-AIADMK non-DMK party) vote share and certainly denied DMK+ from a even larger victory.  Even thought AIADMK was defeated it showed is resilience relative to 1996 when AIADMK was completely crushed.  Once again DMK's  Karunanidhi  is made CM of TN.

[jaichind]

TN 2011

After DMK returned to power in 2006 DMK+INC went on to win the 2009 LS elections defeating AIADMK as well as DMDK.  This means that AIADMK has lost three elections in a row (2004 LS 2006 Assembly 2009 LS) to DMK.  AIADMK was eager not to be defeated a forth time in 2011 assembly election and formed an alliance with DMDK which has a 8%-10% vote base.  DMDK agreed to this mostly based on the fact that after two elections while DMDK showed that it can win 8%-10% of the vote that does not translate into wins unless it joins an alliance.  AIADMK tried to get MDMK into its alliance as well but was not able to offer enough seats since it had to allocate a bunch to DMDK.  In the end MDMK chose not run in 2011.  DMK retained INC and PMK and got the Kongo Nadu based KMK and the Dalit based VCK to join DMK+.  AIADMK, in addition to DMDK and the Left parties of CPI CPM AIFB also got the Dalit based PT as well as the Dalit-Muslim based MNMK to join it.  The view was that the election was neck-to-neck but the result was a significant victory for AIADMK+.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+                234           31              39.43%
 DMK                 124           23               22.39%   
 INC                    63             5                 9.30% 
 PMK                   30             3                 5.23%
 VCK                   10              0                1.51%
 KMK                    7              0                 1.00%

DMK rebels         11             0                  0.79%
INC rebels            2             0                  0.10%

AIADMK+          234         203               51.80%
 AIADMK            165        150               38.40%
 DMDK                 41          29                 7.88%
 CPM                   12           10                 2.41%
 CPI                     10           9                  1.97%
 MNMK                  3            2                  0.49%
 PT                        2            2                  0.40%
 AIFB                    1            1                   0.24%

AIADMK rebels      2            0                   0.13%

BJP                   204           0                   2.22%

IJK                    126          0                    0.59%

BSP                   193         0                     0.54%

Overall the scale of the AIADMK+ victory is similar to that of 2001. But the difference is that back in 2001 all DMK had was BJP and everyone else was arrayed against it.  In 2011 DMK had INC and PMK both brought with them vote bases of 5% or more.  Yet DMK+ still was defeated by a large margin.  This speaks to the power of the AIADMK and perhaps the difference DMDK made.    This defeat led to the split between DMK and INC each of whom blamed the other for the defeat.  Just like before Jayalalitha in power alienated DMDK  pretty quickly and AIADMK-DMDK relationship broke down.  In the 2014 LS elections AIADMK ran by itself and nearly swept TN defeating DMK and INC which ran separately and the grand alliance of BJP-DMDK-PMK-MDMK.  This grand alliance itself broke down soon after the 2014 LS elections leaving most players non-aligned as the 2016 TN assembly election approaches.

[jaichind]

Looking at the TN elections from 1967 to 2011, one could derive these facts

1) Leadership transition for a party is usually dangerous in this personality based politics system in TN.  AIADMK was defeated in 1989 as the price for transition from MGR to Jayalalitha.    The tentative shift from Karunanidhi  to Stalin in this election could spell bad news for DMK+ chances.

2) Building the right alliance blocs are critical.  Every time there is a gang up by most of the medium players in TN against the ruling bloc it usually spells bad news for the ruling bloc.  Jayalalitha has this habit of alienating these medium players when she is in power and triggers them to join a massive anti-AIADMK bloc.  No sign of that this time.  DMDK choose not to join DMK+ when historical patterns indicate that it should. 

3) Ever since 1989 AIADMK and DMK always alternate in power.  If DMK+ does not win this time it will break a clear pattern.  In Indian politics if a party does not win an election when it is its turn to win, it usually means it will go into decline for several election cycles and perhaps terminal decline.  Perhaps this is why DMDK choose not to join DMK+.  DMDK sees that AIADMK is fairly strong and given the leadership transition in DMK the DMK+ might struggle to win.   If DMDK runs on its own it will not win and perhaps make DMK lose.  If DMK loses it might fall into terminal decline and perhaps DMDK then takes over as the second pole in TN as the main rival to AIADMK.

[jaichind]

Another Assam poll by People's Pulse which was done before the BJP-AGP alliance was formed.



It has INC getting around 45 seats to BJP 35 seats and AIUDF at around 17.  While the BJP-AGP alliance should be able to push up the BJP and AGP seat total it seems given the rebellions in BJP and AGP due to the alliance perhaps the gain, if any, would not be large.  If these were the results then it will most likely be a INC minority government with AIUDF support from the outside.

[jaichind]

In WB, it seems INC and Left Front finished seat adjustment talks.  It will be Left Front 190 seats, INC 89 seats and 5 seats for Gorkhaland regionalist GJM.  In theory GJM is part of NDA but this time Left Front decide to back GJM so they can take on AITC 1-on-1.  This shows how low Left Front has fallen.  When Left Front dominated WB politics they will never accept backing a party that is for creating a separate Gorkhaland state.  But now the need to defeat AITC has driven Left Front to do this.  In theory the rough vote share support in WB should be something like

AITC         40%
Left Front  35%
INC           10%
BJP           10%

Now that Left Front recaptured some of its support base lost to BJP in 2014 LS elections.  If so then the seat ratio between Left Front and INC should be something like 3 to 1 where INC will get around 70 seats and not the 90 seats INC actually got.   In 2011 AITC gave INC 66 seats but now INC will get 90 seats even though it is clear INC lost some of its vote base to TMC.  In theory if Left Front and INC vote blocs can transfer votes to each other then AITC can be beaten but it is not clear that is the case.  In theory AITC can counter this by taking on BJP as an ally but part of the growth of the AITC last few years it getting the INC Muslim vote base to support AITC.  Being that Muslims are almost 1/3 of the WB voting population AITC most likely cannot take the risk of an alliance with BJP.  AITC will have to hope that Left Front - INC seat adjustment does not work at the ground level.

[jaichind]

Latest ABP news poll on the critical UP assembly elections which will be 2017. This election will almost make or break NDA for 2019 LS elections as far as momentum is concerned.   The result is the BJP gained from 2012 but is coming in way below what it achieved in 2014 LS elections when BJP-AD won 43.6% of the vote.



It has BSP coming back to power in 2017 with a near majority with BJP making up much ground from 2012 but still distant second.  The poll assumes that RLD still allies with INC just like in 2012 and 2014 LS.  
              
                seats     vote share     2014 LS vote share
BSP            185        31%                   19.8%
NDA           120        24%                   43.6%
SP                80        23%                   22.3%
UPA              13        11%                     8.6%

What this poll seem to indicate is that the Dalit base that went over to BJP in 2014 LS is mostly coming home to BSP while INC is gaining back a bit of its Upper Caste base it lost to BJP in 2014 LS. There are also indications that the small part of the Upper Caste vote that went to BSP in 2007 which swung away from them in 2012 is also coming back to BSP.  SP's hold on part of the non-Yadav OBC which went over to BJP in 2014 LS seems to be sticking with BJP.

[jaichind]

In Assam for the NDA it seems to be that out of the 126 seats it will be BJP 82 AGP 24 BPF 16 and two small tribal parties 4.  Main problem here is that these alliances are already causing rebellions within BJP and AGP with splinter parties being created and determined to contest seats allocated to the other party.  This is putting pressure for both BJP and AGP to contest more than what is allocated.  It seems AGP announced that it will contest at least 26 so it will have "friendly contests" with BJP in two seats.  The BJP has announced that it will contest 90 seats so it will have "friendly contests" with mostly AGP in 8 seats.  On the non-NDA side, it seems that AIUDF has formed an alliance with JD(U) and RJD.  This alliance has asked INC to join it which is unlikely since INC will fear losing its Assamese base in Upper Assam if it allied with AIUDF.  Besides, JD(U) and RJD has very little influence in Assam so this alliance is not worth having.  In Bodoland it will be BJP-BPF vs INC-UPP vs AIUDF vs SJA.  SJA is a bloc of small parties which represent various non-Bodo communities in Bodoland.  SJA's plan is for BJP-BPF and INC-UPP to split the Bodo vote and for it to come in and consolidate the significant non-Bodo vote just like it did in the 2014 LS elections.

[jaichind]

Now I have written the history TN assembly elections I will shift to Kerela.  I will start with 1957 since that is the first assembly election held in Kerela under current state borders.  The swings in Kerela tend to to smaller than TN and most sifts are mostly about party realignment to gang up on the enemy of the day.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1957

Since Indian independence political conflict in the area which became Kerala has been between INC and CPI.  The Socialist PSP and Muslim base MUL  have their pocket of influences as well and contested in an alliance.  RSP which is a Leftist SOC (ancestor party of PSP) splinter has a small but concentrated base as well.  In 1957 the first non-INC government was election with the CPI front winning a small majority seats and finally beating INC down to second place.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+               126            44              37.94%
 INC                 124           43               37.85%  
 Ind.                   2              1                 0.10%

INC rebel            6              0                 0.25%

CPI+               120            65              41.01%
 CPI                 100           60               35.28%
 Ind.                  20             5                 5.73%

CPI rebel             7             0                  0.58%

PSP+                92           17               16.95%
 PSP                  62            9                10.76%
 MUL                 16            8                  4.15%
 Ind.                 14             0                 2.04%  

RSP                  28            0                   3.23%

CPI led by Namboodiripad (Also known as EMS)  formed a narrow CPI government as it and its allies won a tiny majority.  PSP and MUL won seats in its strongholds as part of the PSP+ bloc and the rest is INC+ vs CPI+ which CPI+ came out ahead by a small margin.  Christians tend to vote INC while Muslims which are more concentrated split their vote between MUL and INC.   CPI was strong with Hindus especially the more backward castes.  The CPI government implemented a series of economic and social reforms which slowly provoked and turned the PSP and MUL against it.  The CPI regime also targeted the Church which also intensified Christian opposition to CPI.  Due to opposition to the CPI policies which provoked a series of demonstrations and even riots the government at the center dismissed the CPI led EMS CM in 1959 and called for new elections for 1960 with INC PSP and MUL united against CPI.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1960

Due to opposition to the CPI policies across the various political blocs, INC PSP and MUL all joined an opposition bloc lead by INC to fight the CPI+ bloc.  Under this polarization most of the RSP base shifted to back CPI and RSP ran a very tiny slate of candidates recognizing that is vote bloc is gone.  But the union of INC PSP and MUL is too large for CPI and INC+ won in a landslide.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                126           95               53.81%
 INC                   80            63              34.42%
 PSP                   33           20               14.14%
 MUL                  12           11                 4.96%
 Ind                     1             1                  0.29%

INC rebel             5             1                  0.40%
PSP rebel             1             0                  0.19%

CPI+                126          29              44.02%
 CPI                  108          29              39.14%
 Ind.                   18           0                 4.88%

CPI rebel              1           0                  0.03%

RSP                   17            1                 1.32%

INC+ won by sweeping the Christian and Muslim areas which consolidated behind INC+ bloc.  CPI+ bloc actually gain votes from 1957 mostly by absorbing RSP tactical voters but lost by a wide margin to the combined might of INC PSP and MUL.  A united front government was formed.  As per agreement PSP would hold the CM post for 2 years followed by INC.  The era of INC rule led to conflict between INC and PSP and MUL.  CPI itself split due to the USSR-PRC conflict with the pro-PRC faction creating CPM with EMS going over to CPM himself as well.  KTP which began as a farmers party was also formed during this period and decided to align with with CPM.  RSP at the same time decided  to align with CPI.  INC itself experience a split with its Christian bloc splitting off and forming KEC.   This lead to the fall of the government in 1964 with new elections called for 1965.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1965

The INC-PSP government collapsed in 1964 as PSP and MUL fell out with INC while INC split with the creation of the KEC.  CPI also split with CPM being created.  This set up a 4 way battle with the two INC and two CPI parties battling it out.    CPI was confident of being able to retain the original CPI vote base and defeat the divided INC.   Then one by one various Leftist forces seems to ling up behind CPM.  RSP went with CPM, PSP which itself split at the national level with the Kerala unit going with the PSP splinter SSP also when with CPM, and MUL allied with KEC which created a de facto Muslim-Christian bloc. Surprised by its relative weakness CPI decided to try to form united front candidates with CPM which mostly failed but did result in CPI backing CPM backed independents in a number of seats.  The result was a plurality for CPM+ bloc but with INC+ and KEC+ winning between them a majority  of the votes and bare majority of seats between them.  

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                  133            36              33.55%

INC rebel             7              0                0.21%

CPI+                102             3              10.63%
 CPI                   79             3                 8.30%
 RSP                    5             0                 1.05%
 Ind.                  18             0                 1.28%

CPM+              129           57               33.41%
 CPM                 75           41                20.43%
 SSP                 29            13                 8.13%
 KTP                   3              1                 0.70%
 Ind.                 22             2                  4.14%

CPM rebel         13             0                 0.33%
SSP rebel           1             0                  0.08%

KEC+              113          37                21.26%    
 KEC                 53           23               12.56%
 MUL                23           12                 6.36%
 Ind.                 37            2                  2.33%

The two Congress parties gained significantly from 1960 while the two Communist parties lost ground.  But because the Communist vote was concentrated on the CPM+ bloc in terms of seats there was pretty much a deadlock.  While CPM and CPI were willing to cooperate for government formation the INC and KEC could not work together nor with the Communist parties.   KSP split from SSP during this period.  INC splinter SWA joined the KEC+ alliance.  BJS and the rump PSP also formed an alliance to contest the next round of elections.  Also the INC in Kasaragod region split to form KS which is dedicated to unify the Kasaragod region into Karnataka.  After a year of fruitless talks new elections were called for 1967.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1967

The 1965 elections ended in a deadlock with no viable majority for any combination of blocs that are willing to work together.  As a result new elections were called for 1967.  When confronted with the fact that the total vote share of the two Congress blocs (INC+ and KEC+) surged in 1965 relative to 1960 finally provoked the CPM to reach out to CPI and MUL to join forces to counteract the growing power of the Congress blocs.  As a result a grand alliance of CPM CPI MUL PSP RSP KTP KSP was formed to confront the two divided Congress blocs of INC+ and KEC+ who still were fighting each other for the original Congress space.  The result was that the grand alliance not only was able to confront a divide Congress fronts but also achieved a significant swing to itself and won in a massive landslide, at least in terms of seats.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                  133            9               35.43%

KS                       2             2                 0.70%
INC rebel             5             0                 0.09%

CPM+              133          117              53.59%
 CPM                 60            53              23.93%
 CPI                  22            19                8.57%
 SSP                  21            19               8.40%
 MUL                 15            14                6.75%
 RSP                   6              6                 2.71%
 KTP                   3              2                 1.10%
 KSP                   1              1                0.52%
 Ind.                   5             3                 1.61%

CPM rebel           1              0                 0.03%

KEC+                78             5                 8.60%
 KEC                  61             5                7.57%
 SWA                   6            0                 0.21%
 Ind.                  11             0                0.83%

BJS+                 31             0                 1.11%
 BJS                  24             0                 0.88%
 PSP                    7             0                 0.22%


The united CPM+ bloc swept almost all the seats as the Congress vote was split between INC and KEC+.  A United Front lead by CPM was installed led by EMS.  After a year or so conflict rose again within this grand coalition which pitted CPM against CPI MUL SSP.  In 1969 there was a massive falling out and EMS resigned hoping to provoke an election where CPM will defeat CPI-MUL-SSP-RSP, INC, and KEC who will all run separately.  Surprisingly CPI offered to form a government known as the Mini Front with MUL-SSP-RSP and outside support from INC.  One of the reasons INC was willing to do this was at the national level in 1969 INC itself split where INC(O) which was a center-right part of INC was created.  INC(R) which was the center-left Indira Gandhi INC which I will just call INC started to drift left and seeking Leftist allies to counter INC(O) which was forming alliances with Rightist parties like BJS and SWA.  INC(O) then joined the KEC+ bloc along with BJS and SWA.  The CPI-MUL-SSP government with INC support was a very fragile coalition and after a while CPI which then went to an election in 1970 once CPI felt that it could fight an election with CPI-MUL-SSP with support INC and confront CPM and KEC+ blocs.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1970

Once the Mini Front decided to go for a mid-term election the partisan alignments matches the realignments at the national level.  The PSP SSP split triggered further splits in SSP where ISP split from SSP.  This did not stop SSP ISP KSP from aligning togeather with CPM.  PSP, RSP, and MUL which were part of the Mini Front continued in CPI led front which ran in an alliance with INC the INC+ bloc.  INC(O) BJS SWA which are allied at the national level are aligned with KEC and ran with the KEC+ bloc.  Some INC(O) candidates ran under the banner of the old pre-independence CSP but still under the KEC+ bloc.   CPM clearly used united front tactics to where it will support various Leftist independents to try to pull into the CPM+ camp non-traditional CPM voters especially in areas where MUL and RSP are strong and CPM has no real presence.   INC+ which is INC plus the CPI led Mini Front wins a narrow victory and majority over CPM+ front.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+              133             69                43.72%
 INC                 53             32                 18.22%
 CPI                 29              16                  8.97%
 MUL                21             12                  7.92%
 RSP                14               6                   4.40%
 PSP                  7               3                   2.43%
 Ind.                  9               0                   1.68%      

KS                     2               0                   0.48%
INC rebel         18               0                   1.47%

CPM+             130            46                 40.16%
 CPM                77             32                 25.12%
 SSP                14               6                   4.07%
 ISP                 10               3                   3.23%
 KTP                  2               2                   0.79%    
 KSP                  1               1                   0.34%         
 Ind.                26               2                   6.60%

CPM rebel         7                0                   0.27%

KEC+             104            18                 13.01%
 KEC                32             12                  6.22%
 INC(O)            39              3                   4.50%
 CSP                  2              2                   0.64%
 BJS                  8               0                   0.60%
 SWA                1               0                   0.11%
 Ind.               22               0                   0.95%

The CPI Mini-Front led by CPI continued with INC support from the outside after the victory of the INC+ bloc.  In the meantime SWA and all the various Socialist splinters (like SSP PSP ISP) all merged into BLD at the national level although a rump PSP continued and stayed in INC+.  Then came the Emergency in 1975 which polarized everyone around pro- and anti- Indira Gandhi positions.  As the 1977 elections approached, INC(O) BJS BLD all merged into JNP.  MLO split from MUL as an anti-INC anti-Indira Gandhi MLO.  All the anti-Indira Gandhi parties united under CPM+ bloc.  CPI continued with INC along with RSP and MUL.  KEC which had to choose sides went with INC+ given the Christian opposition to the CPM program.  KEC(P) then split from KEC and went with CPM+ given its anti-Indira Gandhi position.  RSP experienced a split with NRSP splitting out and joining CPM+.  KS with its goal of Karnataka getting less traction and defeated in the polls mostly disappeared.
 

[jaichind]

Kerala 1977

After the Emergency ended national elections were called as well as Kerala assembly elections.  The Mini Front became the Maxi Front where INC became the leader of the front.  While all anti-Indira Gandhi forces fused around the CPM+ front.  This included the JNP which is the fusion of INC(O) BLD (itself the fusion of all Socialist splinters and SWA) and BJS, anti Indira Gandhi KEC splinter KEC(P), anti Indira Gandhi MUL splinter MLO while KEC went with INC+ given its opposition to CPM.  In this way both fronts had a INC party (INC vs JNP [which is mostly INC(O)), a KEC party (KEC vs KEC(P)), a Communist Party (CPI vs CPM), and a MUL party (MUL vs MLO.)  The Nair-based NDP ran with INC+ as independents.  A rump PSP which refused to join JNP also ran with INC+ as independents.  The result was a significant victory for INC+ where KEC and MUL was able to retain enough of the KEC and MUL vote base to carry INC+ over the top.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+              140            111              52.93%
 INC                 54              38               20.02%
 CPI                  27              23                9.94%
 KEC                 22              20                8.38%
 MUL                16              13                6.66%
 RSP                 11                9                4.20%
 NDP                  5                5                 1.88%
 PSP                   3                3                 1.08%
 Ind.                   2                0                0.77%

INC rebel           5                 0                0.42%

CPM+             140              29              43.27%
 CPM                70               17              22.87%
 JNP                 27                7                 8.23%
 KEC(P)            15                2                 4.53%
 MLO                16                3                4.45%
 KSP                  1                 0                0.36%
 NRSP                1                0                 0.26%
 Ind.                10                0                 2.57%

CPM rebel        23                0                 1.44%

CPM was hit by rebellion due to its alliance with JNP which does include old BJS elements.  INC+ won in a landslide and INC led the government.  At the national level the INC was soundly defeated by the JNP bloc which led the CPI to drift back to CPM at the national level.  The Indira Gandhi's attempt to continue control of INC after being ousted from power led to INC(U) to split from INC which aligned with CPM.  This plus INC internal rebellions led to attempts to maintain the government with a series of INC then CPI and then MUL CM. In the end KEC, CPI, and RSP all leaving the INC+ bloc and going over to CPM which provoked a mid-term election in 1980.  KEC(J) split from KEC due to its desire to stay with INC.  With KEC going over to CPM+ a good part of KEC(P) merged into KEC with a small rump KEC(P) remaining but still in CPM+.  RSP's switch to CPM+ provoked NRSP to switch over to support INC+ in 1980.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1980

The period of 1977-80 saw a national realignment where CPI broke off from INC, anti-Indira Gandhi INC elements broke off to form INC(U) with the remaining INC moving to the right.  When attempts to keep the Maxi Front going failed by 1979 Kerala had new elections.  INC(U) went with CPM+ along with CPI RSP and KEC.  KEC(J) split from KEC and stayed with INC+.   JNP which opposed INC at the national level went with INC+ given this Right-Left polarization.  The Nair-based NDP and Ezhava-based SRP were formed and went with INC+ and ran as independents although a lot of INC and JNP candidates also ran as independents.  PSP continued to run with INC+ as independents.  Fisherman based DLP also ran as independents with INC+.  The INC(U) split from INC took a bunch of the INC organization in certain areas forcing INC to back various pro-INC independents in certain districts.  The RSP defection from INC+ to CPM+ forced INC+ to run independents in vacuum of RSP strongholds.  MLO was renamed IML but otherwise stayed as the pro-CPM version of MUL.  The reunited CPM-CPI alliance plus size of the INC vote INC(U) was able bring to CPM+ was enough for a somewhat narrow CPM+ victory.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+              140             46               46.35%
 INC                 52             17               17.65%
 JNP                 25               5                 7.58%
 MUL                20             14                 7.18%
 KEC(J)            14               6                 4.94%
 NDP                 7                3                 2.46%
 SRP                  5               0                 1.74%
 PSP                  2                1                0.66%
 DLP                  1               1                 0.34%
 Ind.                14               0                 3.81%

INC rebel          9                0                 0.74%
 
CPM+             140             93               50.69%
 CPM                50             35               19.35%
 INC(U)            30             21               10.95%
 CPI                 22             17                 7.80%
 KEC                17              8                  5.25%
 IML                 11              5                 3.51%
 RSP                  8              6                  3.02%
 KEC(P)             2               1                  0.80%
 
CPM rebel          4               1                 0.49%
 
CPM+ came into power with CPM taking the CM position.  The win was a fairly narrow one and CPM needed almost all its larger allies to stay with it for the government to survive.  INC+ did fairly well once one takes account of the INC(U) split plus CPI and KEC going over to CPM+.  By 1981 was was no longer the case as ICS (new name for INC(U)) went over to INC+.  What is left of KEC(P) merged back into KEC.  Of course KEC then did the same as ICS and went over to INC+ and brought down the government in 1981 which brought to power an INC+ government.  Then ICS had a falling out with INC+ and wanted to switch back to CPM+ which led to INC(A) splitting out from ICS to stay in INC+.  JNP itself also decided to jump ship from INC+ to CPM+ which provoked the JNP splinter JNP(G) which stayed in INC+.  Then SKEC split from KEC to support in the CPM+ bloc.   This was enough to bring down the INC+ government and provoked the 1982 election.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1982

The 1982 elections were called because INC(A) and KEC defected from the CPM+ bloc over to INC+ bloc leading to the fall of the CPM+ government.  INC(A) joined INC+ and ran as independents.  KEC also this time went with INC+ joining KEC(J) which split from KEC in 1980 to stay with INC+.  JNP went over to CPM+ but JNP(G) split from JNP to stay with INC+ and ran as independents.  Ezhava-based SRP stayed with INC+ and also ran as independents as did PSP.  RSP(S) which is a RSP splinter also ran with INC+ running as independents.  The rump INC(U) was renamed ICS and stayed with CPM+.  With KEC and INC(A) going over to INC+, this left CPM+ with a bunch of seats with no real voting base.  CPM+ responded by supported INC(A) and KEC defectors as independents to try to have some viable candidate as part of the CPM united front tactics. The result was a very narrow victory for INC+ over CPM+ with vote shares very close to each other.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+               140            77              48.19%
 INC                  35            20              11.90%
 INC(A)              28           15                9.63%  
 MUL                 18            14                6.17%
 KEC                 17              6                5.86%
 KEC(J)             12              8                4.55%
 JNP(G)              8              4                 2.75%
 NDP                  8              4                 2.67%
 SRP                  6               2                2.15%
 RSP(S)              4               1                1.20%
 DLP                   1              1                 0.37%
 NRSP                 1              0                 0.36%
 PSP                   1              1                 0.30%
 Ind.                   1              1                 0.38%

INC rebel            4             0                  0.15%

CPM+              140            63               47.40%  
 CPM                 51            26               18.80%
 CPI                  26            13                 8.77%
 ICS                  18             7                 5.76%
 IML                  12             4                 3.25%
 JNP                  12             4                 4.04%
 RSP                   8             4                 2.76%
 DSP                  1              1                 0.39%
 SKEC                1              1                 0.38%
 LKD                  1              0                 0.22%
 Ind.                10              3                 2.93%

CPM rebel           1              0                 0.03%

BJP                   69             0                  2.75%

The INC+ returned to power with INC holding the CM seat.  In the reverse of 1980 the CPM+ did fairly well given INC(A) took the bulk of INC(U) back in INC+ and KEC went back to INC+.  INC(A) and JNP(G) merged into INC right after the election as well as DLP.  The government with a very slim majority actually managed to last the entire term.  It was helped by the fact that a faction of ICS joined INC during this term.  KEC and KEC(J) merged into KEC but split again with the faction that was KEC(J) becoming KEC and the faction that formed KEC becoming KEC(M) but both staying in INC+.  In 1985 IML merged back into MUL which also added to the INC+ numbers.  SKEC mostly dissolved and merged into CPM.  CMP also split from CPM and formed a tactical alliance with INC+ going into 1987 elections.