India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

BJP, DMK, and MDMK led Welfare Front all are trying to rope in DMDK to no avail.  It seems that PMK is insisting, for now, to go its own way.  Unless a good portion of these parties and gang up on AIADMK it seems that AIADMK should be able to cruise to victory in 2016.

[jaichind]

Now that the floods are over in TN, political alliance jockeying are picking up the pace.  DMK, in addition to trying to rope in DMDK, has also indicated that it will strive to include INC in its alliance.  Of course INC in TN is a shadow of a shadow of itself after the double blow of getting crushed in the 2014 LS election (worst ever performance of a united INC in TN) due to corruption and Sri Lanka Taml issue followed by the TMC splinter breaking away.   From the DMK point of view they are better of trying to rope in TMC than INC.  Of course DMK might be trying to get both factions of the INC back together in an alliance with DMK.  It seems to me that unless there is an alliance that include DMK DMDK and INC/TMC, it is unlikely AIADMK can be beaten in 2015.  I guess DMK is beginning to see it that way as well.  Of course the current DMK leader Karunanidhi  (age 92) was always pro-INC.  It is his son Stalin that was opposed to the INC alliance, especially back in 2014.  2016 elections was suppose to be the passing of the baton from Karunanidhi to Stalin.  Pro-Karunanidhi factions in DMK are fearful of Stalin taking over.  This move toward an alliance with INC might has also to do with the dynamics of Karunanidhi-Stalin tension within DMK.

[jaichind]

Speaking of Karunanidhi one does to make mention of him in any discussion of TN politics.



Karunanidhi is the leader of the DMK and had held that position since 1969.  He was first elected in 1957 and became CM of TN in 1969 after DMK founder and TN CM Annadurai passed away.  He is still very much active in politics today 46 years later.  In theory even if DMK wins in 2016 he will not be CM but he had made promises of retirements before only to continue as leader of DMK and CM of TN.  The main driver is as much he desire for power as he is the only one that can hold the faction ridden DMK together between various sons of his.

His son Stalin this times does seems to have a fairly tight hold over the party so the 2016 so the election next year should see the transition of Stalin to leadership and CM of TN should DMK win.

[jaichind]

WB branch of INC has requested for INC high command to create an alliance with Left Front.  Its main argument is that BJP support has collapsed in WB since 2014 so if the anti-AITC vote can be united behind INC-Left Front, then AITC can be beaten in 2016.  CPM internally have been debating this  and seems to have overcome ideological objections to a INC-Left Front alliance.  The Kerela branch of CPM who has to fight INC in 2016 are opposed to such an alliance.

[jaichind]

In TN, MDMK lead People’s Welfare Front which includes MDMK VCK CPI and CPM has been trying to get GK Vasan's TMC  to join it after also trying to woo DMDK. TMC split from INC late 2014.  GK Vasan's father G K Moopanar first created TMC splitting from INC in 1996 to protest INC alliance with AIADMK.  After GK Moopanar's death in 2001 TMC mostly ran out of steam and GK Vasan merged it with INC in 2002.  GK Vasan had a falling out with INC high command in late 2014 and re-created TMC.

Meanwhile, AIADMK's Jayalalitha seems to indicate that AIADMK is open to having alliances after taking a hardline position on going alone in 2014.  I guess Jayalalitha is admitting that after the flooding fiasco the AIADMK position is not as invulnerable in 2014 when AIADMK was at the height of its popularity and the anti-AIADMK hopelessly split between NDA and DMK.

[jaichind]

With AIADMK indicating they might be open to alliances, one has to think about who these allies might be. 

It is said that AIADMK is talking informally with CPI (which in theory is part of the MDMK lead PWF) and TMC as well as the Mulsim-based MMK.  A TMC alliance with AIADMK would be ironic as TMC was formed in 1996 as an INC splinter to protest the INC alliance with the corruption filled AIADMK.  TMC went on to ally with DMK and swept the 1996 Assembly elections.  Of course TMC allied with AIADMK in 2001 along with INC paving the way for merging of TMC into INC in 2002 but TMC could argue that AIADMK was in opposition and no longer capable of corruption.  The recent flooding disaster has exposed the corruption at all levels of AIADMK so that makes it harder and more ironic if TMC goes with AIADMK.

In theory AIADMK-BJP are natural partners.  BJP could add a 3% vote share on top of the AIADMK 35% base.  Being part of NDA could protect Jayalalitha from CBI corruption investigations and roping in AIADMK into NDA could help BJP in the upper house where AIADMK has a significant number of MPs.  In reality this seems unlikely.  The reason is any party that could ally with BJP (PMK DMDK) are very negative AIADMK this election cycle (Jayalalitha tried to lock up leaders of both parties soon after coming into power.)  While possible allies for AIADMK like CPI TMC and MMK could never stand being in the same front as BJP.  In fact if AIADMK-BJP were to ally then everyone else in TN will gang up on AIADMK-BJP creating a (35%+3%) versus everyone else with well known results. 

What is impressive about AIADMK is its ability to pretty much seamlessly ally with CPI one year, INC another year, and BJP yet another year.  We will see soon how the alliance game plays out.

 

[jaichind]

Recently news on alliances are

1) In Assam BJP formalized an alliance with BPF.   At the same time it seems that the more radical Bodo BPPF will merge into BPF.  All this should shore up NDA in Bodoland.  Both INC and BJP are working behind the scenes to get AGP on its side.  The sense is that side that gets AGP should have the advantage in Upper Assam as the Modi wave wears off.  INC mostly have ruled out an alliance with AIDUF citing possible Hindu consolidation behind BJP if an INC-AIUDF alliance is formed.

2) In WB CPM is pretty much coming out in the open asking for an alliance with INC with the national CPM silent on its opinion since CPM in Kerela is the main rirval to INC there.  The internal debate within INC continues on weather it should align with TMC or Left Front. 

[jaichind]

In Assam the word is that the BJP-BPF alliance was mostly based on BJP conceding all seats in the Bodoland region plus a very large financial aid package to the Bodoland region.  In return the BPF will support BJP in other parts of Assam where there are some Bodo populations.  This deal seems quite lopsided in favor of BPF.  It seems that some internal assessments out of BJP concluded that if BJP contested alone it will win at most 25 out of the 126 seats.  Based on this assessment the BJP began shopping for allies cuttings deals that might favor potential allies.  It seems that BJP-AGP talks are continuing even as certain factions in the AGP are opposed to a deal with BJP.  It seems that the AGP has demanded 35 seats whereas BJP only want to cede 20.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen national poll has

NDA    38%   301 seats vs 339 in 2014
UPA     28%   108 seats vs  62 in 2014



Going by these numbers it seems that UPA will lose ground in Kerela and Karnataka, gain some ground in WB and Assam and make a slight advance in the Hindu heartland.  NDA will lose a bit of ground in the Hindi heartland but more so in Bihar while making some gains in Karnataka, AP and Telangana .  Left Front will make some gains in Kerela and WB.  Regional forces will lose ground in WB, AP, and Telangana while remaining dominate in places like TN.

[jaichind]

Sarbananda Sonowal will be the BJP CM candidate for Assam.  Sarbananda Sonowal was with the AGP until 2011 when he defected to BJP but was critical in leading the successful 2014 BJP election campaign in Assam.  The hope is that he could replicate the same success in 2016 even though a lot of the promises he made in 2014 was unfulfilled.    Also former INC heavyweight Himanta Biswa Sarma who had a falling out with INC last year and defected to BJP as a result was hoping he get to lead the BJP campaign.  While this choice gives the BJP a face in Assam it does increase tensions within the various BJP factions many of whom were part of INC or AGP until recently.

[jaichind]

Looks like WB INC has rejected any alliance with TMC while leaving the door open for an alliance with Left Front.  Here the interest of the WB INC differs from national INC.  National INC, from a game theory point of view, should prefer TMC given its number of MPs in both the Lower and Upper House.  WB INC can point to the TMC threat from absorbing the WB INC base as a reason to ally with Left Front even if this leaves the door open for a possible TMC-BJP alliance in the future.  it seems Sonia Gandhi is for TMC alliance while Rahul Ghandi is trying to investigate of an alliance with Left Front is possible.

[jaichind]

In TN BJP is trying to recreate the NDA of 2014.   BJP is offering DMDK 113 seats, PMK 70 with 51 for itself.  PMK seems to have rejected this saying that it refuses to play second fiddle to DMDK.   The real issue for a DMDK-BJP alliance is the BJP willing to accept the DMDK leader Vijayakanth as the NDA candidate for CM.  Also DMDK has to consider how many seats the NDA can win without PMK nor MDMK.  If it seems the prospects as not positive it might go with DMK-INC.  So this has become a game of chicken.  Will the PMK back down at the last minute or insist on running a seperate front lead by itself?  Also how serious is DMDK on joining the NDA or is it a ploy to increase its leverage over DMK?

On the AIADMK front there is talk that AIADMK and TMC might be forming an alliance especially when it seems that DMK and INC will get together.   As always there are talks of AIADMK-BJP alliance which seems unlikely since that will merely push the anti-AIADMK parties (PMK DMDK DMK) and anti-BJP parties (INC, Left Front, TMC) into one mega front to defeat AIADMK-BJP.

[jaichind]

One funny story about DMDK and AIADMK is the story of the DMDK rebel MLAs.   

The DMK-AIADMK and Karunanidhi-Jayalalitha rivalry is all consuming and intense.  One thing that pleased Jayalalitha about the 2011 landslide election is that DMK was reduced to 23 seats behind the 2011 AIADMK ally DMDK with 29 seats.  As a result of the AIADMK majority DMDK which did not join the AIADMK government and was recognized as the official opposition which was humiliating to DMK that it could not even be the official opposition.  Soon after the 2011 elections AIADMK and DMDK  had a falling out and became bitter enemies.  A group of 9 DMDK MLAs opposed route and rebelled against DMDK.  One of them resigned, joined AIADMK and was re-elected as a AIADMK candidate.   Jayalalitha decided not to take the other 8 into AIADMK since that would mean that DMDK MLA count would fall below DMK and DMK would become the opposition.  DMDK did not want this either.  So these 8 DMDK rebel MLAs pretty much act like members of AIADMK going to AIADMK rallies and taking turns attacking DMDK, but because neither DMDK nor AIADMK want the DMDK to lose the status of the official opposition they all go along with the facade that these 8 MLAs are still officially members of DMDK.     

[warandwar]

One funny story about DMDK and AIADMK is the story of the DMDK rebel MLAs.   

The DMK-AIADMK and Karunanidhi-Jayalalitha rivalry is all consuming and intense.  One thing that pleased Jayalalitha about the 2011 landslide election is that DMK was reduced to 23 seats behind the 2011 AIADMK ally DMDK with 29 seats.  As a result of the AIADMK majority DMDK which did not join the AIADMK government and was recognized as the official opposition which was humiliating to DMK that it could not even be the official opposition.  Soon after the 2011 elections AIADMK and DMDK  had a falling out and became bitter enemies.  A group of 9 DMDK MLAs opposed route and rebelled against DMDK.  One of them resigned, joined AIADMK and was re-elected as a AIADMK candidate.   Jayalalitha decided not to take the other 8 into AIADMK since that would mean that DMDK MLA count would fall below DMK and DMK would become the opposition.  DMDK did not want this either.  So these 8 DMDK rebel MLAs pretty much act like members of AIADMK going to AIADMK rallies and taking turns attacking DMDK, but because neither DMDK nor AIADMK want the DMDK to lose the status of the official opposition they all go along with the facade that these 8 MLAs are still officially members of DMDK.     

That's amazing. Jayalitha really does recreate TN in her own image, as the Marx quote goes.

[jaichind]

The battle for allies continues in Assam.  BJP is now actively trying to get AGP into NDA.  Such an alliance back in 2001 (when AGP as the ruling party contested  77 seats and BJP 46 did not save the AGP from defeat.)  There were talks of AGP-BJP alliances in 2006 and 2011 but they did not go anywhere because the two sides could not agree on seats.  Now the BJP wants AGP in NDA to prevent the Hindu vote in Upper Assam from being split.  The latest talks seems to indicate that AGP wants 40 seats while BJP only wan to part with 20.  INC is also trying to get AGP to join it in an alliance although it is more likely that it want to push up the market value of AGP so BJP does not want to pay such a high price.  The latest word is that the AGP will most likely go it alone without alliance with BJP nor INC.  One thing is for sure, if there is a de jure or de facto alliance in Upper Assam between INC and AIUDF then the BJP will lose interest in an AGP alliance since such a Muslim consolidation will automatically lead to a Hindu consolidation in Upper Assam and the BJP will get the AGP vote share without needing an alliance with AGP.   From the INC point of view, it is critical for its survival that in Upper Assam, like in 2006 and 2011, it becomes a 3 way race between INC BJP and AGP which would then provoke tactical voting from the small AIUDF base there to vote INC.  Anything else means doom for INC in Upper Assam.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a political crisis brewing in J&K which might mean a mid-term election.  J&K had an assembly election which led to the defeat of the ruling alliance of JKN-INC which contested separately anyway PDP 28 BJP 25 JKN 15 INC 12 Other 7. After prolonged talks an unlikely alliance of PDP-BJP government was formed led by PDP founder Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as CM.   Mufti  was a major INC figure in J&K until he founded PDP back in 1999 as a Kashmir autonomy if not pro-independence outfit. Mufti recently passed away and it was expected that his daughter Mehbooba Mufti will take over PDP and then continue as CM with BJP support.  She seems to be dragging this process out threatening to break the alliance with the BJP.  The main problem is that marriage of opposites has made PDP unpopular in its Kashmir base and BJP unpopular in its Jammu base.  Mehbooba Mufti is afraid that if she continue her alliance with BJP for another year or two then next election PDP will be wiped out in Kashmir by JKN.  To some extend the same dynamic is taking place in Jammu for the BJP with respect to INC.  The current thinking by Mehbooba Mufti is to demand massive financial support from the BJP who also rules the federal government.  If she wins that game of chicken then she can go back to Kashmir showing her vote base there a boat load of money and also saying she stared down the BJP and show them who is boss.  If BJP does not give in then she will go for mid-term elections where PDP will lose a lot of ground but not wiped out.  BJP's stock in Jammu has fallen a lot more and an election now means they will be reduced to low single digits in terms of seats.  So right now the BJP is trapped between looking weak and giving in or getting crushed by INC in Jammu in an snap election.  All this should be coming to a head in the next few days.

[jaichind]

In Assam, AGP seems to have ruled out alliances with INC nor AIUDF but still shows some interest with BJP.  Although just today Senior BJP leader and former Union Minister Bijoya Chakraborty who used to be part of AGP until the late 1990s launched a verbal attack on AGP which indicate that BJP-AGP talks might have failed.

[jaichind]

In TN, both BJP and DMK are still trying to get DMDK on its side.  Within the BJP and DMK there are now factions that are coming out for a DMK-DMDK-BJP alliance even though they seems to be minority factions.  One main obstacle is that Modi is on very friendly terms with Jayalalitha at the personal level.  While BJP and AIADMK might not be allies they try not to be enemies.  If BJP allies with DMK then it will make Modi the enemy of Jayalalitha which Modi seems to want to avoid.

[jaichind]

In TN, DMK and INC formally form alliance.  This means DMK-BJP alliance is off which means DMDK will have to pick between BJP and DMK.  DMDK is more likely to go with DMK from a winnability point of view since BJP will struggle getting PMK or MDMK to come with it like in 2014.  BJP might end up going it alone or go with PMK and accept PMK projecting the CM candidate which would be PMK's condition for alliance.  There are also signs that PWF led by MDMK which includes Left Front and VCK might join up AIADMK.  One thing is for sure, PMK and DMDK will not go with AIADMK.    TMC is also a player whose alliance leanings will be more clear after other pieces fall into place.

[jaichind]

It seems that with DMK-INC forming an alliance AIADMK is reaching out to BJP for a possible alliance.  This does not seem to make sense as INC is a shadow of itself so it is not clear why DMK-INC would be such a formidable combination to provoke AIADMK to make such a risky move.  If AIADMK-BJP alliance is formed this would push DMDK, Left Front, and VCK toward DMK-INC.  PMK would never go with AIADMK-BJP and in theory would not join DMK as well but if such a bipolar situation would come about PMK might have no choice but go with DMK.  One possible reason for this is a recent PTTV televsion survey has AIADMK and DMK neck-to-neck without allies which would AIADMK in a much worse position than previously imagined.  AIADMK internal polling might reveal the same results so even a marginal advantage for DMK might defeat AIADMK.  BJP, it is said, insist on contesting 25 select seats and 100 seats overall but seems to have come down to 60 seats.  In 2001 when DMK-BJP fought AIADMK-TMC-PMK-INC-CPI-CPM the BJP contested 21 seats as DMK only significant ally.   2016 seems to be a replay of 2001 only with AIADMK instead of DMK and with BJP being in a stronger position, so it seems, than in 2001. 

Meanwhile DMK rebel and  M. Karunanidhi's son,  M.K. Alagiri, came out openly against DMK-INC saying that there is no way AIADMK can be beaten, especially with his DMK rival and brother Stalin in charge.  This pretty much ends any reconciliation between M.K. Alagiri and his father/brother/DMK and might open up DMK- MDMK alliance since M.K. Alagiri has influence in Southern TN where DMDK is strong.

[jaichind]

In Assam it seems AGP and BJP are inching toward an alliance just like 2001 assembly elections and 2009 LS elections.  And just like those two elections it seems significant parts of both parties are opposed to said alliance and could mar chances of victory over INC just like 2001 and 2009.  It might not batter given the anti-incumbency wave against INC.  Talks are ongoing and there is likely to be a deal announced within a few days.  INC will not have to count on AIUDF tactical voting in Upper Assam to beat back BJP-AGP and somehow beat back AIUDF in Lower Assam by a significant margin so BJP-AGP does not sneak through.   INC will also have to hope for BJP-AGP dissension as on paper BJP-AGP-BPP should have the upper hand. 

[jaichind]

In Puducherry, INC kingpin P Kannan which came close to becoming INC CM of Puducherry back in the early 1990s seems to have a blowup with INC and defected to AIADMK with his bloc.   This is another blow to INC after AINRC broke from INC and became the ruling party in 2011.  AINRC seems to have faltered since and 2016 was a chance for INC to come back.  This defection could put AIADMK to be in a position to capture power and also complicate Rangasamy's plan to ally AINRC with AIADMK to retain power as now AIADMK might try to win on its own.  P Kannan has a track record defection of course.  He joined TMC and lead TMC in Puducherry in 1996 before coming back.  In 2001 and 2005 he created his own INC splinter Puducherry Makkal Congress  and Puducherry Munnetra Congress before coming back both times.  Now he is going to AIADMK giving AIADMK a big boost. 

[jaichind]

Recent ABP News-Nielsen poll for New Delhi.  AAP will have a small swing against it from Feb 2015 but still have a large majority. 

It has
                Vote Share           Seat
AAP             47                      48
BJP              38                      22
INC              12                       0

[jaichind]

In Assam AGP rejected BJP offer of alliance.    The number of seats the BJP offered it seems was just to low to overcome resistance from a good part of the AGP grassroots.  So in Upper Assam it will be INC vs BJP vs AGP.  INC can come out winner if the anti-INC vote can be evenly divided between AGP and BJP. In theory the anti-INC vote should go to BJP in Upper Assam based on the 2014 LS elections but AGP usually does a lot better in Assembly elections than LS elections. 

[jaichind]

Good summery of possible alliances in TN even though it is a bit out of date by not having possible AIADMK-BJP alliance.