India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #225 on: May 18, 2016, 12:31:38 PM »
Late TN exit poll from local TN Thanthi TV

It has a neck-to-neck result with slight advantage for AIADMK

 

AIADMK        111
DMK-INC        99
PMK                 2
DMDK-PWF      3
BJP                  1
neck-to-neck  16
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jaichind
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« Reply #226 on: May 18, 2016, 01:40:19 PM »
Most of the rumors out of INC in Assam is that INC has mostly accepted defeat and that its latest strategy is to hope that BJP does not win a majority of seats.  In such a case some in the INC seems to want to support an AGP-BPF government from the outside along with AIUDF to keep out BJP.  Even if this scenario comes to pass I am not sure how long this arrangement will last and will just lead to mid-term elections where the BJP will win in a landslide by itself.
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jaichind
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« Reply #227 on: May 18, 2016, 02:36:34 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2016, 02:44:29 PM by jaichind »
PEACS came out with exit polls for Assam and WB.

Anyway.  They have for Assam

                     Vote share          Seats
BJP+                  38%                51
INC+                 36%                 48
AIUDF                13%                 17
Others                                       10

Which pretty much has BJP and AGP rebels hitting BJP-AGP hard in Upper Assam and almost not AIUDF tactical voting for INC in Lower Assam.  

Their pre-election survey has BJP+ 46 INC+ 58 and AIUDF 19 Others 3.  So even they picked up a pro-BJP trend.  This means even if they got the right mix of people being polled they are underestimating the BJP+ vote.

For WB they have

AITC                151
LF+INC            128
 LF                     87
 INC                  41
BJP                     6
Others                9

Their pre-poll survey had AITC 146 LF-INC 136 BJP 3 Others 9. Again, the momentum argument would imply that the result should be more pro-AITC than their exit poll.

I do not know that much about PEACS but their 2014 J&K and Jharkhand exit polls were pretty good at least in terms of vote share in two very complex and 4- way battles.

Jharkhand


A vote share comparison shows their exit poll was pretty good
              
            exit poll          result
BJP+        38%          35.5%
INC+        18%          14.8%
JVM            8%          10.2%
JMM          21%         20.8%

J&K


In terms of vote share they might have overestimated BJP and PDP but they got the rough order correct and got the trends correct.

            exit poll          result              
BJP           29%           23.2%
INC+        16%           18.2%
JKNC         19%           21.0%
PDP           27%          22.9%
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jaichind
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« Reply #228 on: May 18, 2016, 09:35:40 PM »
Counting starts
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jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: May 18, 2016, 09:40:45 PM »
ABP seems to be the fastest so I will use them


WB (294)
AITC            1
LF-INC         0
BJP+            0
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            0
INC+           0
AIUDF         0
Others         0


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      0
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+          6
INC+           1
BJP+           0
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #230 on: May 18, 2016, 09:41:40 PM »
Leads

WB (294)
AITC            1
LF-INC         0
BJP+            0
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            0
INC+           0
AIUDF         0
Others         0


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      0
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+        40
INC+         29
BJP+           0
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: May 18, 2016, 09:43:09 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294)
AITC            4
LF-INC         0
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            0
INC+           0
AIUDF         0
Others         0


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      0
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+        40
INC+         29
BJP+           0
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #232 on: May 18, 2016, 09:45:02 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294)
AITC            4
LF-INC         0
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            9
INC+           3
AIUDF         2
Others         0


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      0
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+        40
INC+         29
BJP+           0
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #233 on: May 18, 2016, 09:46:21 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294)
AITC            5
LF-INC         0
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            9
INC+           3
AIUDF         2
Others         1


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      0
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+        44
INC+         30
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #234 on: May 18, 2016, 09:48:50 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294)
AITC            9
LF-INC         0
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126)
BJP+            9
INC+           3
AIUDF         2
Others         1


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)
DMK-INC      1
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140)
CPM+        44
INC+         31
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30)
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #235 on: May 18, 2016, 09:52:06 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 13 counted
AITC            9
LF-INC         3
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 31 counted
BJP+           19
INC+           6
AIUDF         4
Others         2


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 2 counted
DMK-INC      2
AIADMK       0
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 79 counted
CPM+        44
INC+         34
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 0 counted
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #236 on: May 18, 2016, 09:56:33 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 23 counted
AITC           18
LF-INC         4
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 31 counted
BJP+           19
INC+           6
AIUDF         4
Others         2


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 3 counted
DMK-INC      2
AIADMK       1
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 82 counted
CPM+        48
INC+         33
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 0 counted
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #237 on: May 18, 2016, 09:57:21 PM »
Note that postal votes tends to have a pro-BJP bias historically
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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: May 18, 2016, 10:01:13 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 32 counted
AITC           24
LF-INC         7
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 31 counted
BJP+           19
INC+           6
AIUDF         4
Others         2


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 14 counted
DMK-INC      8
AIADMK       6
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 84 counted
CPM+        50
INC+         33
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 0 counted
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,684
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #239 on: May 18, 2016, 10:05:32 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 54 counted
AITC          35
LF-INC       18
BJP+            1
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 46 counted
BJP+          27
INC+          10
AIUDF         6
Others         3


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 18 counted
DMK-INC    12
AIADMK       6
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 84 counted
CPM+        51
INC+         32
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 0 counted
INC-DMK      0
AINRC          0
AIADMK        0
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #240 on: May 18, 2016, 10:09:03 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2016, 10:11:25 PM by jaichind »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 78 counted
AITC          52
LF-INC       24
BJP+            2
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 46 counted
BJP+          27
INC+          10
AIUDF         6
Others         3


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 21 counted
DMK-INC    14
AIADMK       7
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 98 counted
CPM+        51
INC+         46
BJP+           1
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 9 counted
INC-DMK      4
AINRC          1
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #241 on: May 18, 2016, 10:12:37 PM »
Looking at non-postal votes it seems DMK-INC is gaining in TN, AITC gaining in WB, and CPM+ gaining in Kerala.
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jaichind
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« Reply #242 on: May 18, 2016, 10:15:44 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 92 counted
AITC          64
LF-INC       24
BJP+            2
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 46 counted
BJP+          27
INC+          10
AIUDF         6
Others         3


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 66 counted
DMK-INC    33
AIADMK      33
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 103 counted
CPM+        53
INC+         48
BJP+           2
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 9 counted
INC-DMK      4
AINRC          1
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,684
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #243 on: May 18, 2016, 10:19:21 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 110 counted
AITC          70
LF-INC       28
BJP+            2
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 46 counted
BJP+          27
INC+          10
AIUDF         6
Others         3


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 78 counted
DMK-INC    41
AIADMK      37
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 110 counted
CPM+        59
INC+         48
BJP+           3
Others         0


Puducherry (30) -> 9 counted
INC-DMK      4
AINRC          1
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #244 on: May 18, 2016, 10:23:46 PM »
Thanks for providing these elections with more context. I always learn a lot from your posts. ^^

Minor correction: Left+ is leading in 38 seats in WB.
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jaichind
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« Reply #245 on: May 18, 2016, 10:24:16 PM »
Leads, mostly postal votes

WB (294) -> 133 counted
AITC          87
LF-INC       44
BJP+            2
Others         0


Assam (126) -> 49 counted
BJP+          25
INC+          18
AIUDF         3
Others         3


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 128 counted
DMK-INC     62
AIADMK      66
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 120 counted
CPM+        64
INC+         53
BJP+           2
Others         1


Puducherry (30) -> 12 counted
INC-DMK      7
AINRC          1
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         0
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jaichind
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« Reply #246 on: May 18, 2016, 10:24:52 PM »
Looking at non-postal votes in Assam it seems BJP+ is making a lot of gains and AIADMK coming back in TN.
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jaichind
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« Reply #247 on: May 18, 2016, 10:27:03 PM »
Wow, it seems BJP-BDJS vote share in Kerala is around 18% so far.   What a surge ...
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #248 on: May 18, 2016, 10:28:37 PM »
Who are the 9 "others" leading in Kerala?
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jaichind
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« Reply #249 on: May 18, 2016, 10:30:03 PM »
Quote from: BundouYMB on May 18, 2016, 10:28:37 PM
Who are the 9 "others" leading in Kerala?

No idea... there are various rebels but there is no way 9 of them could be ahead.  They must be leads based on postal votes..
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