India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

Updated NDTV poll of polls for TN



C-Voter the outlier here in calling it for AIADMK

If we throw out the two extreme exit polls C-Voter and Newsx/Today Chanakya and then take the average we have

DMK-INC     127
AIADMK        96
Others          11

A somewhat more comfortable DMK-INC win.  My sense is that the final result will end up being a bigger win than that for DMK-INC.  In TN swings tends to be uniform and small shifts in vote share tends to produce  large shifts in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Summery of Todays Chanakya exit polls. Todays Chanakya did very well in 2014 LS but did not do so hot in 2015 Delhi or Bihar (which was a total disaster). Compared to other exit polls it does seem to keep its pro-BJP house affect.  One should see these exit polls as sort of a cap on BJP performance.

Assam



Kerala


These results look funny as a vote share gap of this size would imply a much bigger seat victory for CPM+.

WB


Thats 210 seats for AITC

TN


Again, a 10% vote share victory by DMK-INC should imply a much bigger seat level victory by DMK-INC with something like 180 seats or even greater.   Todays Chanakya is not really that credible with results like this.

[jaichind]

C-voter seem to have a much closer fight in WB with LF-INC vote share very close to AITC

[jaichind]

C-voter exit poll in TN is different from everyone else with AIADMK ahead



For seats it has

AIADMK         139
DMK-INC         78
Others            17

[jaichind]

NDTV Puducherry poll of polls

[jaichind]

Updated NDVT Kerala poll of polls



News nation does have it neck-to-neck even though everyone else has CPM+ with a large lead

Todays Chanakya is the outlier on BJP seat share

[jaichind]

Updated NDTV poll of polls for each state

[jaichind]

As to what I think is likely to take place.  My algorithm is the following.  If the exit polls seem to match pre-election surveys then go with the poll of polls average unless the exit polls has an incumabant party losing in which case add a few seats for the winning insurgent party.  If the exit polls seem to exceed the pre-election surveys for a particular party then go with the most extreme of the exit poll surveys for the side that has the momentum.  

In Assam and TN the exit polls seems to be more pro-BJP and pro-DMK than the pre-poll surveys while exit polls tend to match pre-poll surveys in WB Kerala and Puducherry
 
If that is the case then my guess for Assam would be something between the Todays Chanakya and ABP which are the most pro-BJP exit polls given the pro-BJP house effects of Todays Chanakya.  That would be something like

Assam
BJP+        85
INC+        30
AIUDF      10
Others       1


For TN I would go with Todays Chanakya exit poll as the most pro-DMK plus some extra seats for DMK-INC given the history of  TN exit pollsters always underestimating the winning side which would be

TN
DMK-INC    155
AIADMK       75
Others          4


For WB my best guess is the average of exit polls followed by me filtering out the pro-BJP house effects of  Todays Chanakya

WB
AITC           185
LF-INC        104
BJP                 4
Others            1


For Kerala I see no reason why not to go with average of exit polls followed out by the filtering out of the pro-BJP house effects of  Todays Chanakya and adding a few seats for CPM+

Kerala
CPM+           86
INC+            52
BJP+              1
Others           1


For Puducherry  there were not that many pre-poll surveys but they mostly match exit polls so there is no reason not to go with average of exit polls plus some extra seats for INC-DMK

 Puducherry
INC-DMK     19
AINRC           7
AIADMK        3
Others          1

Which would actually be a not so bad result for AINRC all things considered.

[jaichind]

If in WB the vote shares are similar to what C-Voter predicts (LF+INC) and AITC both around 40% then I think LF has a viable future in WB even if LF-INC is defeated this time by AITC.  If the vote share is like what Todays Chanakya projects with LF+INC at 32% then this will he a sign that LF is entering into terminal decline and perhaps implosion in WB.  In such a scenario, INC would most likely end up as an ally of AITC and BJP will end up displacing LF as the alternative to AITC while LF declines into a third rate force in WB.  From the BJP point of view the former is better because it leaves open the future possibility of a AITC-BJP alliance whereas in the latter AITC will direct their power at BJP with LF mostly a spent force.

[jaichind]

C-voter survey in Assam which is labled as Times Now survey in the NDTV poll of polls



Where INC+ and BJP+ are a lot closer in terms of seats.  Others won 10 seats which I assume are mostly BJP and AGP rebels.  It seem the narrative of this exit poll is that the BJP-AGP alliance did not work in Upper Assam with BJP and AGP rebels either winning seats of taking enough BJP-AGP votes to let INC through.  

If we take the NDTV poll of polls survey for Assam



If we instead threw out the two most extreme exit poll results Todays Chanakya and C-Voter and took the average, it looks similar

BJP+          72
INC+         38
AIUDF        11
Others         5

Although now the BJP+ landslide narrative seems less compelling than it was when the first exit polls came out.  There are now 2 polls, India TV, and C-Voter that has BJP+ well below majority.  We also have 3 polls, ABP, India Today/Axis, and Todays Chanakya that has BJP+ seats above 80.   All the polls that has BJP in the 50s in terms of seats have a high number of seats for Others which should be BJP-AGP rebels.  So the main determining factor of this race is: How much damage did BJP-AGP rebels do to BJP-AGP in Upper Assam?  

I still stand by my method that if the exit polls are stronger for one party than pre-poll surveys, which is true for BJP+ then take the most pro-BJP poll if possible for my projection.

[jaichind]

This election cycle C-Voter is the odd man out in predicting a AIADMK victory in TN, neck-to-neck in Assam and neck-to-neck in vote share in WB.  Its projection in Kerala does seem to be in line with everyone else.  I guess on 5/19 they will be the heroes or have a egg on their face.

[jaichind]

News Nation exit polls

Kerala

Vote shares INC+ 47% CPM+ 46% BJP+5%.  So this poll show no surge for BJP+

WB
                  Seats      Vote share
AITC            153             46%
LF+INC        136             43%
 LF                                  29% 
 INC                                14%
BJP                 5                 7%
Which is the best performance for  LF+INC in terms of seats of all exit polls


TN
   
Vote Share DMK-INC 39% AIADMK 35% DMDK-PWF 14% BJP 4% Others (which includes PMK) 8%

Assam

Vote share INC+ 35% BJP+ 43% AIUDF 11% Others 11%.  It seems to be the BJP+ seat lead should be bigger given their 8% vote share lead.  It could be a lot of BJP+ votes in Lower Assam which did not translate into seats but that seems unlikely.

[jaichind]

All things equal unless somehow the exit polls are biased against INC in Assam and WB, it looks like that BJP is doing better than INC in this round of assembly elections.   And even if somehow the more pro-INC Assam exit polls take place BJP will still be the larger party there and have first shot at forming a government.   Incumbents losing in Kerala TN and Puducherry  is par for the course and nothing for either side to brag about.

[reciprocity]

The only race that is interesting (to me anyway) is Tamil Nadu because Jayalalithaa is looking set to lose. And some of those vote/seat shares look absolutely dreadful. Electoral reform is needed most definitely. I know India has a lot of other problems but still, if Nepal did it...

[ag]

The only race that is interesting (to me anyway) is Tamil Nadu because Jayalalithaa is looking set to lose. And some of those vote/seat shares look absolutely dreadful. Electoral reform is needed most definitely. I know India has a lot of other problems but still, if Nepal did it...

Nepal had a major civil war in which Maoists won. Do you think it would be nice for India to have the same experience?

[reciprocity]

The only race that is interesting (to me anyway) is Tamil Nadu because Jayalalithaa is looking set to lose. And some of those vote/seat shares look absolutely dreadful. Electoral reform is needed most definitely. I know India has a lot of other problems but still, if Nepal did it...

Nepal had a major civil war in which Maoists won. Do you think it would be nice for India to have the same experience?

Is this a joke question? I wonder whether it actually occurred to you that Nepal could have just reverted to its previous system it had before 2008? Should I be smug like you and ask you if you knew that Nepal had elections before 2008?

[ag]

The only race that is interesting (to me anyway) is Tamil Nadu because Jayalalithaa is looking set to lose. And some of those vote/seat shares look absolutely dreadful. Electoral reform is needed most definitely. I know India has a lot of other problems but still, if Nepal did it...

Nepal had a major civil war in which Maoists won. Do you think it would be nice for India to have the same experience?

Is this a joke question? I wonder whether it actually occurred to you that Nepal could have just reverted to its previous system it had before 2008? Should I be smug like you and ask you if you knew that Nepal had elections before 2008?

I am very well aware that Nepal had elections before 2008. Which does not change the fact that the reason it had a Constituent Assembly was that it had a civil war. India has not been able to even do the reapportionment regularly, because doing it would be too controversial. It is very hard for me to see how a major departure from the current Westminster-style system could be achieved without something very dramatic happening. A civil war seems to be on the low end of the possible drama.

[jaichind]

In the end JSS led by K. R. Gowri Amma decided not to join NDA nor run by itself and instead back CPM+ even though JSS was not allocated any seats.  This meant that Gowri Amma will not run in an assembly election in Kerala or pre-Kerala for the first time since Indian independence.  She campaigned for CPM+ but did not run herself.  This is an end of an era.  

She was first made Minister in the first CPI government of Kerala in 1957



and ran under JSS in 2006 and 2011 and lost both time narrowly.  The only other time she lost was in 1977.  She is now 97



In her tribute I will list every assembly election she participated in.  She ran in 1951 and 1954 in Travancore Cochin which was a state that eventually merged with other territories to form Kerala in 1956.  She won in 1951 as an independent only because CPI was banned at the time.  But in 1954 she ran and won as CPI.

Travancore Cochin

1951
THURAVOOR
K. R. Gowri Amma  (IND)  47.87%
INC                                  24.40%
SP                                    14.15%
IND                                  12.30%

1954
SHERTALA
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPI)    63.16%
INC                                  36.84%

Kerala was then formed

1957
SHERTHALA
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPI)    53.41%
INC                                  46.59%

Gowri Amma was made minister in the CPI government.  She also married fellow CPI MLA Minister T.V. Thomas.




1960
SHERTHALA
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPI)    51.29%
INC                                  48.71%

In 1964 CPI split into CPI and CPM.  Gowri Amma went with CPM.  She and her husband who stayed in CPI had to separate at the request of both CPM and CPI.

1965
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    38.09%
INC                                   29.11%
KEC                                  12.97%
CPI                                   12.83%

1967
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    54.29%
INC                                    40.51%
KEC                                    5.20%

1970
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    52.29%
CPI                                    44.27%
BJS                                      1.38%

1977
AROOR
CPI                                    56.06%
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    42.50%

Gowri Amma lost for the first time.

1980
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    57.30%
INC                                    41.29%

1982
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    52.58%
KEC(J)                               45.09%
BJP                                      2.33%

1987
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    50.70%
INC                                    44.97%
BJP                                      3.78%

During the 1987 elections many expected that Gowri Amma will become CM of Kerela if CPM+ won.  After CPM+ did win in 1987 Gowri Amma lost an internal struggle in CPM and failed to capture the CM position.  This struggle planted the seeds of Gowri Amma being expelled in 1994 from CPM.

1991
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (CPM)    49.84%
INC                                    46.72%
BJP                                      2.98%

In 1994 Gowri Amma was expelled from CPM and formed JSS which joined INC+

1996
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (JSS)     55.17%
CPM                                    40.45%
BJP                                      3.56%

2001
AROOR
K. R. Gowri Amma (JSS)     50.01%
CPM                                    39.91%
IND                                     4.52%
BJP                                      3.72%

Gowri Amma was made a minister in the INC+ government.

2006
AROOR
CPM                                   49.55%
K. R. Gowri Amma (JSS)     45.51%
BJP                                      2.93%

Gowri Amma switched districts under pressure from INC as the relative clout of JSS declined after her defeat in 2006

2011
CHERTHALA
CPM                                   53.11%
K. R. Gowri Amma (JSS)     41.83%
BJP                                      3.66%

Gowri Amma fell out with INC and decided to take JSS back to CPM+.  JSS(S) split from JSS to stay in INC+.  JSS(RB) eventually split from JSS(S) to join NDA.  After CPM+ failed to allocate a seat to JSS there were talk of Gowri Amma leading the JSS into NDA or running separately.  In the end she took JSS back to CPM+ and campaigned for CPM+ even as JSS was not allocated a seat.  This will most likely be the last election Gowri Amma will be participating even as she did not run as a candidate for the first time ever since 1951.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So has every incumbent been listed except Mamata?

Jesus I didn't realise how old the DMK leader is nowadays.

[jaichind]

So has every incumbent been listed except Mamata?

Jesus I didn't realise how old the DMK leader is nowadays.

There are several others even in this election.  The current INC CM of Assam Tarun Gogoi is 81 although it looks like he will not win re-election.  One of the front-runners for CM of Kerala in case CPM+ wins as it now seems likely is V. S. Achuthanandan who was CM in 2006-2011 and is also 92.  Unlike Karunanidhi who is 91, Achuthanandan is actually in pretty good health.  There is talk that the most likely scenerio for Kerala when CPM+ wins is that Achuthanandan will become CM for a year or so before handing it on to someone else.  Looks like something similar will take place in TN where in the case DMK-INC wins as it now seems likely, Karunanidhi  will be CM for a year or so before handing it off to Stalin.  So after 5/19 it is very likely that the CM if Kerala and TN will be 91 and 92 respectively. 

[jaichind]

Axis came out with seat-by-seat predictions

Assam




WB







Kerala





TN






Puducherry

[jaichind]

C-voter exit poll for Kerala in terms of vote share with BJP+ surging past 10% in terms of vote share



with Seat wise result being

CPM+     78
INC+      58
BJP          2
Others     2

[jaichind]

In the TN seats of Aravakurichi and Thanjavur, elections have been delayed a week to take place 5/23 following widespread seizure of cash and complaints of voters being bribed.   Looking at the results of these 2 districts in 2011 I would say that it is very likely that DMK+ will win these two seats once voting takes place next week, especially when the overall results show that DMK+ won the election.

[jaichind]

Even though most media outlets refer to WB's ruling party as TMC for Trinamool Congress, I always use AITC since that is the legal name of the party All India Trinamool Congress.  Also TMC collides with the TN INC splinter TMC or Tamil Maanila Congress. 

One funny aside is that the rule of thumb in India is that if a party starts with All India, then ironically, that almost certainly mean that said party is a regional party.  Examples which all see are

AITC - All India Trinamool Congress (WB)
AINRC - All India N R Congress (Puducherry)
AIUDF - All India United Democratic Front (Assam)
AIADMK - All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (TN and Puducherry)
AIMIM - All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (Telangana)

To be fair AIMIM is trying to expand to other states outside of Telangana mostly trying to capture the Muslim vote.  AITC is trying to expand into Jharkhand, Assam and Tripura but they are there trying to capture the Bengali vote in those states.

[jaichind]

SUN TV, a TN TV station which is owned by Kalanithi Maran, the grandnephew of DMK president Karunanidhi saw its shares rise 11% after the exit polls came out implying a likely DMK government in TN.