India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

Kerala 1987

1987 elections were called when the INC+ government completed its term.  KEC had split again after merging and KEC(M) ran as independents while KEC was controlled by the original KEC(J) faction with both saying in INC+.  NDP and SRP experienced splits with splinter factions going over to CPM+ and the rump NDP and SRP becoming NDP(P) and SRS(S) and staying in INC+ while NDP(G) split from NDP ran as a rebel NDP party.  Both were to experience a difficult election with the splits plus a challenge from BJP+ where the Hindu based HM joined up with BJP.  BJP+ are strong in NDP(P) and SRS(S) regions and will eat into their vote share.  CPM splinter CMP joined the INC+ alliance at a tactical level where INC+ will back CMP in a couple of seats running as independents.  The level of rebellion in INC+ after 5 years of incumbency is quite high and as a result of the rise of BJP+ and INC rebellion INC+ lost in a close election to CPM+.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                140           61              44.40%
 INC                   76           33               24.83%
 MUL                  23           15                 7.73%
 KEC                   13            5                 3.53%
 KEC(M)              10            4                 3.34%
 NDP(P)                9            1                  2.23%
 SRP(S)                4            0                  1.21%
 CMP                    2            1                  0.72%
 PSP                     1            1                  0.30%
 RSP(S)                1            0                  0.23%
 Ind.                    1            1                  0.28%

NDP(G)                3            0                  0.16%
INC rebel           13            1                  1.61%

CPM+              140           78               45.00%
 CPM                 74           40                24.31%
 CPI                  26           17                  8.42%
 ICS                  14            6                   4.02%
 JNP                  12            7                   3.79%
 RSP                   7            5                   2.43%
 LKD                   2            1                   0.62%
 Ind.                   5            2                   1.42%

CPM rebel            4            0                   0.22%

BJP+                135           0                   6.62%
 BJP                  116          0                    5.64%
 HM                    11           0                   0.84%
 Ind.                    8            0                   0.14%

The rise of BJP+ and INC rebellion did their damage on INC+ and hurt NDP(P) SRP(S) the most.  INC+ saw the risk both factors would play and tried to counter by deploy Rajiv Gandhi as well as pushing NDP and SRP to try to corner CPM+ Nair and Ezhava voters.  It was close but this strategy failed as both NDP and SRP were mostly wiped out.  CPM+ actually lost vote share from 1982 but still managed to win a majority and install a CPM CM.   Of course in retrospect looking at the results seat by seat even the INC rebels increased the CPM+ seat by 3 and a strong BJP performance increased the CPM+ seats by 3 (taking into account that a weaker BJP performance would have only transferred votes to non-MUL INC+ candidates) the CPM+ was predestined on its on strength to win 72 seats even with such a low vote share mostly because of the the uneven nature of the pro-CPM+ swing.  After the election CMP became a full fledged member of INC+ bloc.  SRP mostly disappeared and merged into INC while PSP and RSP(S) also merged into INC.   HM mostly merged into BJP.  KEC which is mostly the original KEC(J) faction had a falling out with INC+ and went over to CPM+.  The original KEC faction that made up the KEC(P) in the 1977 and 1980 elections then merged back in to KEC now broke with KEC over this decision and formed KEC(B) and stayed in INC+.  This is ironic as  KEC(P) was formed when KEC joined INC+ in 1977 with the objective of staying in CPM+.  Now the same faction is forming KEC(B) with the objective of staying in INC+ when KEC is going over to CPM+.  At the national level mergers between JNP and LKD formed JD which continued with CPM+ in Kerala.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1991

The CPM+ government decided to go for an early election.  Unfortunately for CPM+ the election took place after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination which was expected to give the INC+ an advantage due to the sympathy wave.  KEC which at this stage is really KEC(J) contested with CPM+ while KEC(B) split out from KEC to contest with INC+.  The sympathy wave, the homecoming of various INC+  rebels of 1987, and the relative decline of BJP from 1987 was able to give INC+ a solid majority even as CPM+ gained slightly in terms of vote share mostly due to the boost it got from KEC coming over to CPM+.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                140           90               48.18%
 INC                   91           55                32.07%
 MUL                  22           19                 7.37%
 KEC(M)             14            10                 4.70%
 NDP                   5              2                  1.51%
 CMP                   4              1                  1.18%
 KEC(B)               2              2                  0.58%
 Ind.                    2             1                  0.76%

CPM+               140           50               45.96%
 CPM                  67           30                22.77%
 CPI                   25           12                  8.60%
 JD                    13             3                  4.04%
 ICS                  12             2                  3.47%  
 KEC                  10            1                  2.99%
 RSP                    6             2                 2.11%
 Ind.                   7             0                  1.99%

CPM rebel            2             0                 0.05%

BJP                  137            0                  4.76%

BJP lost ground relative to 1987 most of which is likely to be the sympathy factor for INC but also anti-incumbency tactical voting which boosted INC+.   INC+ government came into power with a INC CM.  This election showed the NDP is mostly running out of power and after 1991 elections NDP mostly merged into INC although a small NDP faction NDK(K) became a BJP ally.  KEC(J) split from KEC(M) in 1993 but stayed within INC+. Of course his KEC(J) is not to be confused with the earlier KEC(J) that was created in 1979 and merged back into KEC and is now the core of KEC which is now part of CPM+.  JSS split from CPM and joined INC+ in 1994.  Also in 1994 INL split from MUL and joined CPM+.

[jaichind]

Kerala 1996

The 1996 election was called at the end of the term of the INC+ government.  The INC government at the center is fairly unpopular and anti-incumbency is weighing down on the INC+ government.  INC+ and CPM+ traded some splinters with CPM splinter JSS going with INC+ and MUL splinter INL going with CPM+. PDP which is also a MUL splinter ran separately and damaged the INC+.   The result was a fairly narrow victory for CPM+ who only got a small vote share increase from 1991.

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                140           59               44.84%    
 INC                   94            37              30.43%
 MUL                  23            13                7.42%
 KEC(M)             10              5                 3.18%
 KEC(J)                4              2                 1.14%
 JSS                    5              1                 1.54%
 KEC(B)               2              1                 0.64%
 CMP                   2              0                 0.49%

INC rebel            7              1                  0.61%

CPM+              140           80               46.03%
 CPM                 65           42                22.48%
 CPI                  23           18                  7.62%
 JD                    13            4                   4.12%
 KEC                 10             6                  3.10%
 ICS                   8             3                   2.49%
 RSP                  6              5                  2.07%
 INL                   6             0                   1.34%
 Ind.                  9             2                   2.54%

CPM rebel          7              0                  0.22%

BJP+              140             0                  5.73%
 BJP                127            0                   5.48%
 BLP                   2             0                  0.04%
 NPD(K)              1             0                  0.03%
 Ind.                10             0                   0.18%

PDP                  50            0                  0.72%

The CPM+ came back into power after the election.  Then in 1999 at the national level JD split into JD(U) and JD(S) with JD(U) going with BJP and JD(S) staying in CPM+.   1999 also saw NCP break off from INC at the national level with NCP in Kerala also joining CPM+ front.  RSP also experienced a split with RSP(B) splitting out and joining the INC+ bloc in 2001.

[jaichind]

Kerala 2001

As the CPM+ government completed its term it was clear that anti-incumbency was setting in.  NCP going CPM+ bloc was not anywhere close to enough to shift the balance in favor of CPM+.  ICS mostly merged into NCP.  So other than RSP(B) joining INC+ plus NCP taking the place of ICS and JD(S) taking the place of JD in CPM+ there does not seem to be much of a shift in party alignment.  A small but significant swing toward INC+ was enough for a fairly large victory for INC+.

                   Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+             140             99              49.05%
 INC                88              62              31.40%
 MUL               23              17                8.00%
 KEC(M)          11                9                3.54%
 JSS                 5                4                 1.78%
 RSP(B)            4                2                 1.37%
 KEC(J)            4                 2                 1.32%
 KEC(B)           2                 2                 0.61%      
 CMP               3                 1                 0.92%

INC rebel         3                1                 0.47%

CPM+           140             40               43.70%
 CPM              67              23               21.94%
 CPI               24                7                 7.70%
 JD(S)            12                3                 3.48%
 KEC              10                2                 2.90%
 NCP               9                 2                 2.60%
 RSP               6                 2                 1.71%
 INL                3                0                  0.89%
 Ind.               9                1                  2.49%

JD(S) rebel      1                0                  0.19%

BJP+           135                0                 5.15%
 BJP             123               0                 5.02%
 JD(U)             2                0                 0.02%
 AKMDMP        1                0                 0.01%
 Ind.               9                0                 0.11%

The new INC+ government did not start well as the size of its victory actually provoked large amounts of internal INC rebellion from the start.  This lead to a disastrous 2004 LS election for INC+ which in turn provoked a split down the middle in INC with the creation of DIC in 2005.  KEC(J) supported the DIC and merged itself with DIC to support it.  DIC was a big tent INC splinter and was divided on if its goal should be to displace INC within the INC+ bloc or join the CPM+ bloc.  After trying to do both it lost a lot of credibility and was forced to join INC+ for the 2006 elections.    Also in 2005 RSP(M) and RSP(BJ) split from RSP(B) and took its place in the INC+ bloc with RSP(B) being an irrelevant player for 2006.   KEC had a split and a splinter KEC(S) was created but stayed in CPM+ along with KEC.  MUL(R) split from MUL and joined CPM+.  Part of ICS that merged into NCP split back out into C(S) but stayed in CPM+.  All things equal INC+ was looking at a potentially disastrous 2006 elections.

[jaichind]

Kerala 2006

INC+ headed into 2006 in a state of disarray.  DIC which had merged KEC(J) into it eventually worked an alliance deal to stay within INC+.  But the battle scars between the DIC and INC over the last 5 years meant that this alliance would be hard to work on the ground.  PDP which is a MUL splinter supported CPM+ unconditionally which was a blow to MUL of INC+.  The result was a very large victory for CPM+ bloc but not as bad as feared.

                   Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+              140            42              42.98%
 INC                 77            24               24.09%
 MUL                21              7                 7.30%
 DIC                 18              1                 4.44%
 KEC(M)            11              7                3.26%
 JSS                   5              1                 1.51%
 CMP                  3              0                 0.81%
 KEC(B)              2              1                 0.62%
 RSP(BJ)             1              0                 0.34%
 RSP(M)              1              0                 0.21%
 Ind.                  1              1                 0.72%

INC rebel         15              0                 0.73%

CPM+            140            98               48.63%
 CPM               85             61               30.45%
 CPI                24             17                 8.09%
 JD(S)               8              5                  2.44%
 KEC                 6              4                  1.75%
 RSP                 4              3                  1.44%
 INL                  3              1                 0.90%  
 NCP                 2              1                 0.64%
 C(S)                1              1                 0.47%
 MUL(R)            1             1                  0.42%
 KEC(S)            1              1                 0.31%
 Ind.                5              3                  1.72%
 
CPM rebel         2              0                 0.24%

BJP+             140             0                 4.90%
 BJP              136             0                 4.75%
 JD(U)              1              0                 0.00%
 Ind.                3              0                 0.14%

BSP              107             0                 0.69%

CPM+ stormed back to power in an election which could have been even worse for INC+.  DIC bore the largest brunt of the INC+ defeat and was mostly wiped out.  KEC(J) split back out from DIC.  Some DIC members went back to INC, and then the rump DIC merged into NCP on condition that NCP left CPM+ which it did.  Then most of the DIC elements of NCP went back to INC which provoked the original NCP to rejoin CPM+.  As time went on the CPM+ government also experienced dissonance in addition to NCP leaving and re-joining.  The KEC and KEC(S) defecting from it and merging into KEC(M) in 2009.  A faction of KEC that opposed this split from KEC and formed KEC(AMG) and continued in CPM+.  And in 2010 JD(S) splinter SJD was created and joined INC+.  RSP(B) which had become irrelevant after 2006 election merged into JSS.  RSP(B) splinter RSP(M) merged into SP before splitting back out and then merged into INC in 2011.    MUL(R) which is part of CPM+ renamed itself NSC.

[jaichind]

Kerala 2011

As the 2011 election approached, there did not seem to be much of an anti-incumbency wave against CPM+ but with the war of defections working in INC+ favor with SJD and KEC coming over to INC+ the INC+ was seen as having the advantage.  Muslim based SDPI ran as a separate bloc was expected to impact INC+ a bit but the MUL hold on the Muslim areas seems solid.  The result was a narrowest victory to date in Kerala assembly election history with INC+ with a tiny edge both in seats and votes.

                   Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+               140           72               45.83%
 INC                  82            38               26.73%
 MUL                 24            20                8.28%
 KEC(M)             15             9                4.94%
 SJD                    6             2                 1.65%
 JSS                    4             0                 1.31%
 CMP                   3             0                 0.93%
 KEC(J)                3             1                 0.91%
 KEC(B)               2             1                 0.72%
 RSP(BJ)              1             1                 0.37%

INC rebel            1             0                 0.04%  

CPM+              140          68               44.94%
 CPM                 84           45               28.18%
 CPI                  27           13                 8.72%
 JD(S)                5             4                  1.52%
 RSP                  4             2                  1.31%
 NCP                  4             2                  1.24%
 KEC(AMG)         3             0                  0.75%
 INL                   3             0                  0.55%
 NSC                  1             1                  0.38%
 C(S)                  1             0                  0.28%
 Ind.                  8             1                  2.02%

CPM rebel          4             0                  0.36%

BJP+              140           0                   6.06%
 BJP               138           0                   6.03%
 JD(U)               1            0                   0.02%
 Ind.                 1            0                   0.01%

SDPI               80            0                   0.91%

BSP               122           0                   0.60%

INC+ won only because MUL and KEC(M) were able to hold their strongholds while INC did poorly which shows the scars from the INC splits of 2001-2006 had not fully healed.  INC+ formed the government although it was not clear it could complete its term.  To everyone's surprise it managed to do so.  The 2014 LS elections produced the next hectic rounds of party alignment.  The Modi wave of 2014 LS elections seems to indicate that the BJP+ vote share could surge to above 10% in the next assembly election which provoked a frenzy of party splits and defections in anticipation of a possible 3 way battle in 2016.  First JD(U) broke from BJP due to Modi and aligning with INC+ with SJD merging into JD(U).  RSP split from CPM+ and joined INC+ but RPS(L) split from RSP and stayed in CPM+.  RSP(BJ) which was already with INC+ as a result merged back into RSP.   RSP(B) which had split back out from JSS decided to go with BJP in the 2014 LS elections before going back to INC+.   KEC(B) left INC+ to join CPM+.  JSS also left INC+ to join CPM+ although the JSS splinter JSS(RB) will join up with BJP+.   CMP also joined CPM+ but its splinter CMP(J) stayed with INC+.   KEC(AMG) got renamed KEC(ST) and will stay in CPM+ but KEC(T) split from KEC(ST) and joined up with BJP+.  KEC(D) split from KEC(M) and joined up with CPM+.   BDJS which is a new incarnation of the old Ezhava-based SRP of the 1980s was created and will be a major partner of the BJP+ bloc.  KEC(N) split from KEC(M) and joined BJP+ before just merging into BJP.   The original KEC(S) which merged into KEC(M) back in 2009 split back out again to join CPM+ which then broke down due to internal battles before then deciding to back BJP+.  All this dazzling splits and defections point to one fact.  The once powerful KEC(M) has splintered badly and should benefit both CPM+ and BJP+.  BDJS will be a major boast for BJP+ which can look forward to capture some of the INC+ Ezhava vote.  The tribal based JRS was also formed and will run in the BJP+ camp.  The swap of JSS CMP with RSP should be a net wash between INC+ and CPM+.  All things equal CPM+ should have the upper hand in 2016 with BJP+ having a chance at winning a couple of seats which would be first for the BJP+ bloc.

[jaichind]

For 2016 Kerala elections it seems that the party alliances will be

INC+ (UDF)
 INC
 MUL
 KEC(M)
 RSP
 JD(U)
 CMP(J)
 RSP(B)
 KEC(J)

CPM+ (LDF)
 CPM
 CPI
 JD(S)
 NCP
 KEC(ST)
 C(S)
 KEC(B)
 KEC(D)
 INL
 CMP
 JSS
 RSP(L)
 NSC
 KEC(S)

BJP+ (NDA)
 BJP
 BDJS
 KEC(T)
 KEC(N)
 JSS(RB)
 

[jaichind]

Media agency AVC just came out with a poll projection for Assam.  It has

INC        40
AIUDF    25
BJP        32-35
AGP        8-10
BPF         8-9

This is the first poll after the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance was formed.  Under this scenario it will most likely be a minority INC government with AIUDF support from the outside.

[jaichind]

In TN, it seems DMDK decided to go with PWF which is MDMK-VCK-CPM-CPI with will project DMDK leader Vijayakanth as the CM candidate.  This is a blow for DMK which still had hopes that it could rope in DMDK.  Of course this is also a blow to BJP which also had hoped to rope in DMDK.  What is still left in the cards is a possible PMK-BJP alliance but that does not look that likely.  Assuming TMC goes with AIADMK as it seems likely it seems the election will be (including rough vote share)

(AIADMK+TMC) (35%) vs (DMK+INC+MMK+MUL) (35%) vs (DMDK+MDMK+VCK+CPM+CPI) (15%) vs (PMK) (5%) vs BJP (5%).

All things equal the election is AIADMK's to lose now.  DMK is trying to get Karunanidhi's estranged son Alagiri who has some influence in Southern TN back into the fold.  Alagiri bolted from DMK in 2014 over the promotion of Stalin over him as the successor to  Karunanidhi.   The entire history of DMK's splinters center around Karunanidhi's attempt to promote his sons to power.   Back in 1972 Karunanidhi's attempt to elevate his eldest son Muthu over MGR lead MGR to bolt and form AIADMK. Muthu ended up being a political dud.  In 1993 Karunanidhi's attempt to promote his third son Stalin provoked Vaiko to bolt from DMK to form MDMK.  And of course Alagiri who is the second son also bolted from DMK in 2014 over Stalin's formal promotion as successor to Karunanidhi.

[jaichind]

ABP poll for Assam has



Which gives NDA (BJP+AGP+BPF) a majority
                 
              Vote Share       Seats
INC              34                 36
NDA             44                 78
AIUDF          11                 10

While this sort of result would mean that BJP would perform at around the same rate as the 2014 LS peak of Modi wave.  Given the distribution of votes in Lower Assam this result would be possible if INC and AIUDF splits evenly the Muslim vote in Lower Assam allowing NDA to win a bunch of seats in Lower Assam in addition to sweeping Upper Assam and Bodoland.  It seems unlikely that NDA would perform this well even it is likely if not possible that NDA beats INC as the largest bloc.

For WB ABP has



               Vote Share      Seats
AITC              45             178
LF+INC          44            110
BJP                  5                1

Which would mean that BJP would perform even worse than it did in 2011 and far cry from the 17% it got in 2014 LS elections.  This seems unlikely even if the polarization of AITC vs LF+INC would draw some BJP votes away via tactical voting.  If AITC does win 178 seats even with a 1% vote share lead then it must be the result of INC doing very well in its strongholds which runs up votes share without adding many seats but LF getting crushed in urban WB.  Possible but not sure how likely it is. 

Both these polls seems funny even if they got the general trend correct (NDA ahead of INC in Assam, and close race in WB between AITC vs LF+INC with AITC with slight edge.)

[jaichind]

In Kerala LDP (CPM+) came up with the seat distribution within the alliance.  It will be

CPM+ (LDF)
 CPM           84
 CPI            27
 JD(S)           5
 NCP             4
 KEC(D)        4
 INL              3
 KEC(ST)       1
 C(S)             1
 KEC(B)         1
 CMP             1            
 RSP(L)         1
 NSC             1
 Ind.             7
----------------------
                 140

JSS has been left out in the cold with zero seats allocated. JSS got 4 seats in the INC+(UDF) alliance in 2011.  It defected over to CPM+ although JSS(RB) split from it to stay in INC+ before going over to BJP+.  This is a humiliating end to the career of Gowri Amma (age 97), leader of JSS, who herself was not even given a seat from CPM+.  



She ran participated in every election in Kerala assembly election history starting in 1957.  When CPI split 1964 she joined up with the CPM faction even though her husband who was a CPI MLA as well stayed in CPI.  Back in the 1980s she was a top contender for CM in various CPM+ governments.  When she lost internal power struggles in the early 1990s she was expelled from the CPM in 1994 when she formed JSS and went over to INC+.  She must be the oldest active politician alive.  Unless she goes and runs as an independent this looks like the end for her.

KEC(S) was also left out in the cold with zero seats.  KEC(S) is pretty much a one person party led by P. C. George



P. C. George was part of KEC then led the KEC(S) split but stayed in CPM+.  Then he merged KEC(S) into KEC(M) in INC+ in 2009.  He then had a falling out with KEC(M) in 2015 and split KEC(S) back out again and decided re-join CPM+.  He will now get nothing although he might run as an independent.  

[jaichind]

It seems the game is not over for JSS.  JSS splinter JSS(RB) which stayed with INC+ when JSS went over to CPM+ but then went over to BJP+ has offered to merge JSS(RB) back into JSS if JSS, which now effectively dumped by CPM+ comes over to BJP+.   It seems that Gowri Amma, who will most likely not contest this election but wants JSS to be viable for the future has agreed to this.

[jaichind]

Looks like seat distribution for INC+(UDF) in Kerala will be

INC+ (UDF)
 INC                90
 MUL               24
 KEC(M)           15
 JD(U)               5
 RSP                 4
 CMP(J)             1
 KEC(J)             1
---------------------------
                   140

RSP(B) seems to have extended unconditional support to INC+ without wanting a seat.  INC mostly ate up the extra seats vacated by JSS and CMP leaving INC+.  JD(U) which had SJD merged into it got cut as SJD in 2011 had 6 seats and now JD(U)+SJD only gets 5.  RSP joined INC+ but got cut as well since it got to contest 4 seats in 2011 with CPM+ but now with RSP(B) which contested 1 seat with INC+ in 2011 merged into RSP the united RSP only gets 4 seats.  KEC(M) which could have gotten more seats than the 15 from 2011 only got 15 on the argument that KEC(M) is a shadow of itself in 2011 since KEC(D) and KEC(S) split from it.  KEC(J) also got cut from 3 to 1 and as a result there are talk of KEC(J) running rebel independents.

[jaichind]

C-voter came out with polls in all 5 states plus Punjab.

For WB they have



                   Seats         Vote Share
AITC             160              39.6%
LF+INC         127              39.7%
 LF                106              31.4%
 INC               21                8.3%
BJP                4                11.0%
Others            3

Where like other polls it shows a neck-to-neck race in terms of vote share but significant lead in terms of seats for AITC.   BJP fell a lot from 2014 LS election and as a result has a seat share similar to that of 2011.


For Assam they have


  

                   Seats       Vote Share
UPA               53               36.9%
NDA              55               35.0%
AIUDF           12               12.1%
Others            6

Neck-to-neck between INC+ and BJP+ and if these were the results AIUDF will back a INC minority government from the outside.


For TN they have



                    Seats              Vote Share
AIADMK         130                    39.1%
DMK+             70                     31.8%
BJP                  0                        4.1%
Others           30                      

AIADMK will break all anti-incumbent curse in TN since 1989 and return to power.  Here PWF (DMDK+DMK+VCK+CPM+CPI) and PMK must be expected to capture a large vote share and a bunch of seats.


For Kerela they have



                        Seats         Vote share
CPM+ (LDF)       86                43.8%
INC+ (UDF)       53                41.3%
BJP+ (NDA)         1                 10.0%

BJP will win an unprecedented seat in Kerala assembly result with a vote share in the double digits as LDF comes back to power.


For Puducherry they have



                                 Seats           Vote share
AINRC                           7                 25%
AIADMK                        1                  12%
UPA (INC+DMK)          17                 33%
BJP                               0                   9%
Others                          5

AINRC and AIADMK contested together in 2011 but are split now.   INC+DMK will come back to power on such a split.


For Punjab they have
                                      


                                    Seat             Vote Share
AAP                               97                    48%
INC                               11                    29%
NDA (BJP+SAD)               9                    22%

Which is a massive landslide for AAP.   Of course this result is on the assumption that Delhi CM Kejriwal declares himself to be the AAP CM candidate for Punjab.  51% support Kejriwal to be Punjab CM.  



The support level for the current SAD CM implies a total wipe-out for SAD-BJP and the election could then just turn into AAP vs INC.  Not clear how this will work if AAP sweeps into power in 2017 and Kejriwal takes on the role of CM.  I assume another AAP MLA will become Delhi CM.  If it plays out this way it will be the first time in Indian political history a CM of a state resigns to be a CM of another state.

[jaichind]

In TN, INC will contest 41 seats.  So it seems DMK front will be

DMK+
 DMK      180
 INC         41
 MUL          5
 MMK         5
 Minors      3
-------------------
             234

In a blow to TMC, AIADMK will contest 227 seats leaving 7 for allies which pretty much means TMC which had hoped to contest 15 seats will have accept at most 7 or be out in the cold by themselves as DMK-INC also has ruled out taking on TMC as an ally.  BJP is also out in the cold with no deal with PMK. The PWF which is DMDK-DMK-VCK-CPM-CPI-RSP have not worked out seat sharing deals yet and could re-extend their offer to TMC to join with it.   So far it is DMDK with 124 seats and 110 for the rest. 

[jaichind]

18 seats in WB voted today with 81% turnout.  In Assam 65 seats out of 126 seats voted also today with 78% turnout.  Assam turnout was higher than 2011 Assembly elections (76%) but lower than 2014 LS elections (80%.)  All things equal this higher turnout relative to 2011 should work to the advantage of the BJP-AGP-BPF front.

[jaichind]

DMDK looks likes is headed for a split.  A good part of the DMDK leadership has voiced opposition of DMDK alliance with PWF and threatened to defect to DMK if DMDK does not ally with DMK.  DMDK claims they were all bribed by DMK.  Looks like most of them will be expelled and likely to all join DMK.  DMDK is unlikely to reverse course now without losing credibility. 

[reciprocity]

Interesting that Mamata Bannerjee is still strong in West Bengal. Hasn't there been some large scandals with her govt? She seems ''interesting'' to say the least. From jailing cartoonists to calling students Maoists in a television interview.

[jaichind]

Interesting that Mamata Bannerjee is still strong in West Bengal. Hasn't there been some large scandals with her govt? She seems ''interesting'' to say the least. From jailing cartoonists to calling students Maoists in a television interview.

I think the still high level of support for AITC and the recent bribery scandals are correlated.  Since coming to power AITC has be able to capture a good part of the old LF and INC local political clientelist machines.  Of course money is needed to keep these machine running ergo the need to money in her election machinery.  These scandal will for sure drive away some middle class votes but is more than made up for in the machine vote .  Another factor is the movement of Muslim vote to AITC.  AITC which had been allies with BJP on an off between 1998 when it was formed  to 2009 managed to present itself to the Muslim vote bloc as the protector of Muslims from the BJP as opposed to INC or LF.  The old AITC urban base plus the machine vote plus the Muslim vote seems to push the AITC vote share to above 40%.  The only question now is can LF+INC consolidate enough of the anti-AITC vote away from the BJP to match AITC.

[reciprocity]

Interesting that Mamata Bannerjee is still strong in West Bengal. Hasn't there been some large scandals with her govt? She seems ''interesting'' to say the least. From jailing cartoonists to calling students Maoists in a television interview.

I think the still high level of support for AITC and the recent bribery scandals are correlated.  Since coming to power AITC has be able to capture a good part of the old LF and INC local political clientelist machines.  Of course money is needed to keep these machine running ergo the need to money in her election machinery.  These scandal will for sure drive away some middle class votes but is more than made up for in the machine vote .  Another factor is the movement of Muslim vote to AITC.  AITC which had been allies with BJP on an off between 1998 when it was formed  to 2009 managed to present itself to the Muslim vote bloc as the protector of Muslims from the BJP as opposed to INC or LF.  The old AITC urban base plus the machine vote plus the Muslim vote seems to push the AITC vote share to above 40%.  The only question now is can LF+INC consolidate enough of the anti-AITC vote away from the BJP to match AITC.

Thanks Jaichind! I have only basic knowledge of WB politics. I also read on Scroll.in that under Mamata tax revenues are up (It was a relatively positive article about the WB economy which I am sure if correct is also keeping her strong). I wonder if she is using those increased sums to fund her party machine.

[jaichind]

In Assam phase 1 which is mostly Upper Assam and  Barak Valley have voted already



INC should do well in Barak Valley and Lower Assam in Phase 2 will be mostly INC vs AIUDF in non-Bodo Lower Assam and INC-UPP vs BJP-BPP in Bodo regions.  If BJP-AGP are to win they do well in Upper Assam where it is INC vs BJP-AGP.

[jaichind]

NDTV came up with some good analysis on how ethnic voting works in Assam

This is the base case on which groups supports which blocs with size of each group shown.


Here is what INC is trying to do which is to regain the old INC vote base the Tea Workers (which are mostly Hindus and Tribals from the rest of India that migrated to Assam over the last few generations) which it lost to BJP in 2014.  Also try to get Muslims to tactically vote for INC away from AIUDF.


Here is what BJP is trying to do which is to totally lock up Tea Workers and lock up the Tribal vote  which could conflict with they plan to keep the Bodo vote locked up with the BPF alliance.  


Muslims are concentrated in Lower Assam (ergo the conflict with Bodos) and Barak Valley.  There are some Assamese Muslims in Upper Assam which usually vote INC but there number are small when compared to the Bengali Muslims in Lower Assam (mostly from Bangladesh and WB.)   Ahoms which are the original Hindu population of Assam are also mostly concentrated in Upper Assam and historically voted AGP but are drifting toward INC these days with the decline of AGP.  Bodos and other Tribals are concentrated in Lower Assam.  The Tea Workers which are mostly Hindu migrants from other parts of India are mostly in Upper Assam.  Bengali Hindus which traditionally vote BJP although AITC is trying to break into this bloc in Assam.  Another INC strategy in Lower Assam should be in my view to try to exploit ethnic conflict between Bodos and Bengali Hindus to try to break the BJP-BPF alliance there and perhaps drive Bengali Hindus to AITC.  INC should also try to exploit conflict between Bodo and other Tribals in Lower Assam to break the BJP hold over Tribals.  Of course this is complicated as INC itself is trying to get the Bodo vote with its alliance with UPP.

[jaichind]

in TN, TMC pretty much giving up on an alliance with AIADMK has joined PWF which has an alliance with DMDK.  Out of 234 seats, it seems now DMDK will contest 109 seats, DMDK 29 seats, TMC 26 seats, VCK 25 seats, and the LF parties 25.  The remaining seats are yet to be decided.  

TMC is facing rebellion as a result of these twist and turns and some key members might defect back to INC.  Also DMDK are creating a vertical split with the creation of MDMDK with at least 10 MDMK MLA going over to MDMDK which represents a majority of the MDMK MLAs (the ones that did not defect to AIADMK already.)  It seems MDMDK is hoping for an alliance with DMK which might materialize soon.

Over in AIADMK it seems that Jayalalitha is taking a page from the JD(U)'s successful Bihar election strategy by promising prohibition if AIADMK is re-elected in an effort to corner the women's vote.

[jaichind]

Turnout in the second and final phase in Assam was 82% while phase II in WB turnout was 79.5%.  While the record Assam turnout is in part the heavy Muslim turnout it is also likely the anti-INC anti-incumbent vote came out in heavy numbers.  Chances are high that BJP-AGP-BPF will have beaten out INC as the largest bloc.  The INC can only hope for tor INC+AIUDF to have exceeded BJP-AGP-BPF.  Even that is not assured if BJP-AGP swept Upper Assam as it looks like the did. 

[jaichind]

In TN, pro-DMK DMDK splinter MDMDK had formed an alliance with DMK and will run in 3 seats.   So the DMK+ bloc seat distribution seems to be

DMK    173
INC       41
MUL       5
MMK       5
PT          4
MDMDK  3
Minors    3

The comeback of INC which was left for dead after it was crushed in 2014 LS elections and a majority of what remains bolted to form TMC afterwards is quite remarkable.  The risk after 2014 was that INC will drop to a tier 3 party even below the likes of PMK and MDMK let alone DMDK. Now at least if DMK+ does reasonably well INC will be back in the reckoning as a top tier 2 party.  Meanwhile is main rival BJP is isolated and going downhill and its main TN splinter rival TMC just got humiliated by AIADMK and had no choice but to run to DMDK-PWF with a good bloc of TMC coming back to INC as a result. 

In DMDK-PWF bloc after some talks the seat distribution will be

DMDK  104
MDMK   29
TMC      26
VCK      25
CPM      25
CPI       25

Frankly this seat distribution gives CPM and CPI more seats than it deserves given their strength and under-distributes seats to DMDK and MDMK given their strength.  DMDK is wounded after the vertical split of the pro-DMK faction and MDMK is trying to get this alliance to work ergo it is willing to accept less seats.  TMC got a good deal everything considered. 

Overall the feel I have of the vote strength of each bloc as far as a floor concerned are roughly

AIADMK        35%
DMK+           35%
DMDK-PWF   15%
PMK               5%
BJP                3%

AIADMK and DMK+ will battle if out of the undecided with most likely AIADMK having an upper hand.  I would say that if turnout is high and/or exit polls show a neck-to-neck race then most likely DMK+would have won.  For AIADMK to win turnout has to be solid but not massive and all exit polls show a solid lead for AIADMK.  Anything else it is advantage DMK+.