MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[KingSweden]

I heard a rumor the guy who shot Bin Laden might run.

I think Fox wants to be Governor

[KingSweden]

I mean technically Zinke could still run. It's not unheard of for people to be in the cabinet for two years and then move on.

The fact that he's actively encouraging someone else to run makes me suspect he's not interested, though.

Yeah, that's my read too...

[KingSweden]

State Senator Ed Buttrey (R-Great Falls) has become the first contender to jump into the race for MT-AL.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/ed-buttrey-becomes-first-candidate-to-announce-for-replacing-zinke/article_1b37cd40-565e-58fc-b340-1f553c7aff4e.html

Nice. Certainly hope he gets the nomination.

Where does he fall along the MT GOP's spectrum?

[KingSweden]

Per DKE, Richard Spencer is not getting in, thank God. Hopefully Buttrey gets the GOP nod

[KingSweden]

MT - who do you believe is the strongest Dem?

[KingSweden]

Max Baucus’ son Zeno considering, Quist all in

... his son is named Zeno?

[KingSweden]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

Serious question: what does pan sexual even mean? Is it just a fancier buzzword for bisexuality or is it honestly something different?

[KingSweden]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

So?

Serious question: what does pan sexual even mean? Is it just a fancier buzzword for bisexuality or is it honestly something different?

Pansexuals say that "bisexual" implies being attracted only to people who fit within one of the two traditionally defined sexes, but they are attracted to all people, including people who do not conform to traditional sex stereotypes. Some bisexual people will say, for example, that they are not attracted to feminine men even though they are attracted to feminine women and to masculine men, but a pansexual person by definition is attracted to feminine men as much as masculine men.

I think it is sort of silly, but you can definitely watch a bisexual person and a pansexual person have a serious argument about it.

Hmm. I mean that sort of makes sense, but I agree it's a bit silly. Sounds to me more like picky bi people versus less picky bi people. Which is no problem - different strokes, etc, but I don't know if that warrants a completely different sexual categorization

[KingSweden]

Quist and Curtis are both lefty - Curtis was accused of being a psuedo-commie when she ran for Senate.

It didn't help that she had a video blog in which she mocked gun owners, talked sorta vulgarly about her "pansexuality" (the most white-girl thing I might have heard), and basically acted like an out an out caricature of a SJW.

Bisexual implies you are interested in men and women.
Pansexual implies you are interested in everyone, including people outside the binary.
So?

Serious question: what does pan sexual even mean? Is it just a fancier buzzword for bisexuality or is it honestly something different?

I'm sure someone will bite my head off for saying this, but it really sounds like an inanely PC term for bisexuals that some teenage limousine liberal came up with when they were bored.

I'm honestly inclined to agree. Including transpersons seems like splitting hairs, at least based on my (rather limited) understanding of both bisexuality and transgenderism. I don't think you cease being bi just because one of the people you find attractive has transitioned

[KingSweden]

Thanks for doing this cinyc, even though in all likelihood, that's a huge outlier.

I could buy the idea that Gianforte is the Montana GOP's Martha Coakley though. Running twice within 6 months probably leaves a bad taste in voter's mouths.

Hopefully a legit pollster comes through sometime soon.

Seconded. Thanks for doing this, and I think Quist is narrowly favored

[KingSweden]

Where did the moderate Republicans go?

I grew up as a moderate Republican.  The party left us behind long ago.

Same here. Those days are longgggg gone

[KingSweden]

The Republican Party has embrace an almost early Soviet style devotion to the ever constant quest for greater purification and routing out of those hostile elements who have found themselves within their ranks from a variety of backgrounds and origins and whose presence serves to dillute and pollute the Party.


Of course, this is not a Totalitarian regime, so the notion that you can superimpose a bog standard conservative boilerplate into every race, in every state is a recipe for electoral disaster and a big reason why we no longer can compete at all in close to 20 states.

TBF Dems have a stable of state's they don't look hot in, though that's more from incompetence, long term realignment and the predilections of coastal donors than purity purges

[KingSweden]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

That was just me doing à Krazenism, except with a democratic bias.

Heh that's not bad

[KingSweden]

On a bigger note, why didn't any respectable pollsters get a read on this race? All we got was Gravis and a bunch of Google surveys.

Montana state law makes it prohibitive to poll. I believe they require live callers

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

HOLY CRAP

Whoa!

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

HOLY CRAP

Whoa!

Nuclear Elmo meme?

[KingSweden]

I've never once worked for a campaign that allowed canvassing after 6:00 PM. It's like campaigning 101. It tends to annoy otherwise approachable voters. I'd be amazed if either candidate has people out past sunset.

In Florida? Everybody is like 1,000 years old there so that makes sense.

Have you ever had a 43 year old house wife shriek at you on her porch at 3:00 PM? Imagine if I interrupted dinner!

That's just the liquor talking!

She looked like a white wine zombie mom actually.

10/10, would bang

[KingSweden]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

[KingSweden]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

Nuclear Elmo was deployed about twenty pages back. Sadly, the ensuing nuclear winter turned this thread into a barren wasteland shortly afterwards

[KingSweden]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

Nate Silver and Harry Enten probably sh!tpost on here.

Plot twist: Harry Enten is Krazen

[KingSweden]

NEW: Source close to Gianforte campaign says it's raised $100K+ online in last 24 hours -- most of it coming after reporter "body slam."


lol

gianforte probably is the donor.

Heh

[KingSweden]

I think it's gonna end up being:

GG - 49%
RQ - 46%
MW - 5%

Yep. I think so.

[KingSweden]

I'm absolutely taken aghast that a Republican can literally bodyslam a reporter and still even have a chance of winning a congressional seat. It's madness.

Well to be fair, it happened after most of the votes were already cast. Since people can't change their vote, that's that.

This

[KingSweden]

I'm thinking Buttrey or Sales would have won by much more, in hindsight. Think this is two subpar candidates and the state's form showing