Somewhat plausible future party paths

[Vice President Christian Man]

Most likely scenarios leading up to each possible timeline:

Scenario 1 seems the most plausable for the future, with no interruption to current trends, although the GOP picking up minority voters in the SW would've likely been easier prior to Trump, unless someone ideologically similar to Trump with better appeal to minorities could get the nomination. This is the likely outcome if the GOP continues to expand on its WWC base while trying to expand its support among minorities, as the Latino population continues to grow.

Scenario 2 is most likely to happen if the GOP attempts to attract socially progressive WWC voters, or the Dems begin to lose social conservative minorities and reinvents itself into a European-style Christian Democratic party without alienating , while the GOP opens its social tent to favor social progressives who feel as if the Dems have become too socially conservative (Like McGovern and likeminded social progressives during the 1976 election who voted for Ford over Carter).

Scenario 3 could happen if the Dems tried to revive FDR's New Deal Coalition, while turning noticeably socially conservative, and adding nativism and protectionism to attract WWC voters who largely left the Dems over the last several decades, or in the form of the GOP trying to reinvent itself as a bleeding-heart libertarian party, due to the unpopularity of social conservatism in certain regions. The GOP would work  to attract anti-socialist New Deal 2.0 fiscal conservatives and social progressives including minorities with surprising success, particularly in New England. Meanwhile, Trump is foaming at his mouth, not only because America became a Socialist country, but also because many of his former supporters supported it.

Which possible scenario (& state P.V.) seem the most appealing. All scenarios have a similar P.V. and third-party percentage, with the exception of scenario 3, due to the libertarians endorsing the GOP candidate.

Scenario 1: The GOP became predominantly a multicultural, working class, socially conservative and economically populist party, while Dems became a predominantly socially progressive party, economic neoliberalism party.

Dem: Rep: Other:

Alaska: 43% 51% 6%
Alabama: 45% 53% 2%
Arkansas: 40% 56% 4%
Arizona: 46% 51% 3%
California: 53% 43% 4%
Colorado: 52% 44% 4%
Connecticut: 56% 41% 3%
DC: 82% 15% 3%
Delaware: 51% 46% 3%
Florida: 46% 52% 2%
Georgia: 52% 46% 2%
Hawaii: 56% 41% 3%
Iowa: 42% 54% 4%
Idaho: 37% 59% 4%
Illinois: 54% 43% 3%
Indiana: 43% 54% 3%
Kansas: 46% 51% 3%
Kentucky: 38% 59% 4%
Louisiana: 47% 50% 3%
Massachusetts: 57% 40% 3%
Maryland: 59% 37% 4%
Maine (At-lg): 45% 51% 3%
Maine 1st: 50% 46% 4%
Maine 2nd:38% 57% 5%
Michigan: 46% 51% 3%
Minnesota:45% 49% 6%
Missouri: 44% 53% 3%
Mississippi;48% 49% 3%
Montana: 42% 53% 5%
North Carolina: 50% 47% 3%
North Dakota: 39% 56% 5%
Nebraska (At-lg): 43%53% 4%
Nebraska 1st: 43% 53% 4%
Nebraska 2nd: 53% 44% 3%
Nebraska 3rd: 33% 63% 4%
New Hampshire: 47% 51% 4%
New Jersey: 56% 42% 2%
New Mexico: 47.7% 47.5% 6%
Nevada:       45% 52% 3%
New York:       59% 38% 3%
Ohio: 45% 52% 3%
Oklahoma: 41% 57% 2%
Oregon:        46% 49% 5%
Pennsylvania: 48% 49% 3%
Rhode Island: 50% 47% 3%
South Carolina: 50% 47% 3%
South Dakota: 42% 54% 4%
Tennessee: 45% 52% 3%
Texas: 48% 49% 3%
Utah: 42% 55% 3%
Virginia:        54% 43% 3%
Vermont:        52% 44% 4%
Washington: 49% 47% 5%
Wisconsin:        45% 53% 2%
West Virginia: 36% 60% 4%
Wyoming:        39% 56% 5%

Scenario 2:  The GOP became a socially libertarian, nationalist, and economically populist party, while the Dems became Christian-Democratic and globalist. Most potential social-conservative support outside The Deep South, were lost due to large WWC support for the nativism and protectionism of the GOP, although it did not seem to impact social progressives who also mostly voted in favor of the GOP.

Dem: Rep: Other:

Alaska: 42% 52% 4%
Alabama: 45% 52% 3%
Arkansas: 37% 59% 4%
Arizona: 47% 50% 3%
California: 60% 36% 4%
Colorado: 49% 47% 4%
Connecticut:54% 43% 3%
DC: 92% 5% 3%
Delaware: 51% 47% 2%
Florida: 49.5% 49.1% 2%
Georgia: 55% 42% 3%
Hawaii: 66% 29% 5%
Iowa: 35% 61% 4%
Idaho: 31% 65% 4%
Illinois: 55% 42% 3%
Indiana: 39% 58% 3%
Kansas: 41% 55% 4%
Kentucky: 32% 65% 3%
Louisiana: 50% 47% 3%
Massachusetts: 53% 44% 3%
Maryland: 63% 34% 3%
Maine (At-lg): 37% 59% 4%
Maine 1: 42% 54% 4%
Maine 2: 30% 65% 5%
Michigan: 43% 54% 3%
Minnesota:42% 55% 3%
Missouri: 40% 56% 4%
Mississippi:52% 45% 3%
Montana: 36% 59% 5%
North Carolina: 51% 46% 3%
North Dakota: 33% 63% 4%
Nebraska (At. lg): 37% 59% 4%
Nebraska 1st: 37% 59% 4%
Nebraska 2nd: 49% 48% 3%
Nebraska 3rd: 26% 69% 5%
New Hampshire: 39% 57% 4%
New Jersey: 58% 39% 3%
New Mexico: 55% 40% 5%
Nevada: 47% 50% 3%
New York: 62% 35% 3%
Ohio: 42% 55% 3%
Oklahoma: 39% 60% 1%
Oregon: 41% 54% 5%
Pennsylvania: 44% 53% 3%
Rhode Island: 46% 51% 3%
South Carolina: 51% 46% 3%
South Dakota: 36% 60% 4%
Tennessee: 43% 54% 3%
Texas: 53% 44% 3%
Utah: 36% 60% 4%
Virginia: 54% 43% 3%
Vermont: 44% 52% 4%
Washington: 46% 50% 4%
Wisconsin: 39% 58% 3%
West Virginia: 28% 68% 4%
Wyoming: 33% 62% 5%

Third scenario:

The Dems become an economically Democratic Socialist version of GOP scenario 1, while the Reps abandoned social conservatism and are social and economic libertarians.

Dems: Reps: Other:

Alaska: 41% 57% 2%
Alabama: 54% 45% 1%
Arkansas: 51% 47% 1%
Arizona: 46% 53% 1%
California*:49.1% 49.1% 2%
*Dems win by around 1,000 votes
Colorado: 43% 56% 1%
Connecticut:45% 54% 1%
DC: 54% 45% 1%
Delaware: 54% 45% 1%
Florida: 51% 48% 1%
Georgia: 51% 48% 1%
Hawaii: 51% 48% 1%
Iowa: 52% 47% 1%
Idaho: 46% 51% 3%
Illinois: 50% 49% 1%
Indiana: 50% 49% 1%
Kansas: 42% 56% 1%
Kentucky: 52% 47% 1%
Louisiana: 54% 45% 1%
Massachusetts: 43% 56% 1%
Maryland: 52% 47% 1%
Maine (At-lg): 51% 47% 2%
Maine 1st: 46% 52% 2%
Maine 2nd:54% 44% 2%
Michigan: 53% 46% 1%
Minnesota:47% 51% 2%
Missouri: 50% 49% 1%
Mississippi:57% 42% 1%
Montana: 47% 51% 2%
North Carolina: 52% 47% 1%
North Dakota: 47% 51% 2%
Nebraska (At. lg):44% 54% 2%
Nebraska 1st: 46% 53% 1%
Nebraska 2nd: 41% 57% 2%
Nebraska 3rd: 49.5% 49.7% 2%
New Hampshire: 47% 52% 1%
New Jersey: 49% 50% 1%
New Mexico: 46% 52% 2%
Nevada: 50% 48% 2%
New York: 50% 49% 1%
Ohio: 52% 46% 2%
Oklahoma:47% 52% 1%
Oregon: 48% 50% 2%
Pennsylvania: 50% 49% 1%
Rhode Island: 50% 49% 1%
South Carolina: 50% 49% 1%
South Dakota: 45% 53% 2%
Tennessee: 49% 50% 1%
Texas: 45% 54% 1%
Utah:        37% 59% 1%
Virginia:       47% 52% 1%
Vermont:      49.5% 49.9% 2%
Washington:    48% 50% 2%
Wisconsin:      52% 47% 1%
West Virginia:  52% 47% 1%
Wyoming:     43% 54% 3%

[Chips]

Interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the window for Dems to go Christian Democracy has long passed.  That would have been most viable if Clinton had triangulated on social issues instead of economics in 1995 or even earlier with a Carter reelection. 

The near future is a battle of whether Republicans are just being too libertarian for PA/MI/ME or Democrats get too socially liberal for NV/AZ/NM/getting TX any closer. 

[Person Man]

IMO the window for Dems to go Christian Democracy has long passed.  That would have been most viable if Clinton had triangulated on social issues instead of economics in 1995 or even earlier with a Carter reelection.  

The near future is a battle of whether Republicans are just being too libertarian for PA/MI/ME or Democrats get too socially liberal for NV/AZ/NM/getting TX any closer.  

Maybe NM and TX but that alone wouldn't be an issue for NV or AZ. It's more of an issue for NC/GA. I don't really think Maine cares about libertarianism as much as Wisconsin would though with Minnesota being the GOP's Texas.  


And if Biden loses and if the next D state level and federal level majority is decades away, I can see the Democrats triangulate more on civil rights, immigration, MAYBE on newer "woke"/third wave social issues (bathroom bills, athlete bans, pronouns, and "cancel culture"), and taking a more libertarian view of LBGT in general rather than an egalitarian view. They really don't need to triangulate on economics to win programmers, marketing managers, lawyers, or pediatricians any more. They will just tell immigration advocates and Civil Rights people that they "don't deliver" whether because they can't be bothered to vote or are distracted by issues like abortion or "socilism" and we are going to focus more on healthcare and labor issues.

The prospect of Roe being overruled could potentially open something up for Christian Democracy, but it wouldn't be an abandonment of social liberalism, it could even help social liberalism by allowing many Democrats in places like Florida, Arizona, or Texas by saying things like "government should ideally just stay out of marriage" and "we should work with people on a case by case basis on abortion in the first trimester and it should be very difficult in the second" and still be acceptable to liberals.

[DS0816]

Most likely scenarios leading up to each possible timeline:

…

Interesting.

The first scenario is the closest.

I would summarize as follows:

• Future Republican: conservative socially; progressive economically

• Future Democratic: its present—culturally and socially liberal (but not progressive); corporate on economics nationally and globally

The Democrats figure they have the perfect ideal. But, Joe Biden having won in 2020, while unseating Donald Trump, with just 25 states (…) and 306 electoral votes was the weakest such showing since 1976 Jimmy Carter with 23 states (…) and 297 electoral votes. They will think and act they are invincible just as the Republicans did in the 1980s.

A wide window of opportunity exists for the Republican Party if they have the political will to follow through. Their move against Liz Cheney was correct. They need to get rid of Mitch McConnell and everyone else of consequence of that ilk—and move to realign their party while counter-realigning against the Democratic Party.

[bagelman]

Here are the scenarios mapped, for a 2028 election:

1



Texas is the election winning state for either party. The GOP wins 295-243 with all tossups but NM, I greyed out the close states to create a battleground map

2



I wonder who I would vote for here. Anyway, even without the tossups of Florida or NE-2 Democrats still win.

3

3 is most appealing to me but would require a shift directly opposed to The Trends, and one that goes really far, maybe even further than I would want.

with tossups:



without

[Kamala's side hoe]

None of these strike me as plausible anytime this decade, and I’m still skeptical of WA and OR swinging R enough to be Tossups in the 2030s. But 1 seems slightly more believable than 2.