British Local Elections, May 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Two questions:

1. Why would any Tories bother trying to spin that the London mayoralty was competitive?
2. Why would any sane observer of British politics have believed them?

Amongst other reasons:

1 - to distract from a very poor set of results on the first night, aware they could shift the narrative for 24 hours, and make Sunak a little safer until Houchen and Street’s results came in

2 - the Lobby want any sign of a competitive race they can find, and “Labour in disarray” appeals to a lot of their instincts. Also, they almost live in London, so it’s a race they’ve all got a vote and opinions on.

But still, the behaviour of certain political hacks has been pretty extraordinary. One even claimed that Tories were confident of Hall winning after "conversations with voters" - wtf does that even mean??

[Oryxslayer]

Two questions:

1. Why would any Tories bother trying to spin that the London mayoralty was competitive?
2. Why would any sane observer of British politics have believed them?

Amongst other reasons:

1 - to distract from a very poor set of results on the first night, aware they could shift the narrative for 24 hours, and make Sunak a little safer until Houchen and Street’s results came in

2 - the Lobby want any sign of a competitive race they can find, and “Labour in disarray” appeals to a lot of their instincts. Also, they almost live in London, so it’s a race they’ve all got a vote and opinions on.

But still, the behaviour of certain political hacks has been pretty extraordinary. One even claimed that Tories were confident of Hall winning after "conversations with voters" - wtf does that even mean??

I'd add:

3 - Outer areas having a very different view of things than inner area voters, but assuming things will follow their line cause the two groups more or less vote the same nationally. Honestly, this 'bubble' effect - even though it' larger than a bubble - is happening in many major Anglo cities now when it comes to local politics, and the press believes it cause they don't live in the depressed inner areas. In this instance, that's probably future Labour voters in Enfield, Harrow, Croyden, etc interacting with their Tory neighbors.

[Torrain]

But still, the behaviour of certain political hacks has been pretty extraordinary. One even claimed that Tories were confident of Hall winning after "conversations with voters" - wtf does that even mean??

Clearly an entirely vibes-based set of predictions. Most came before the voting has even begun!

I will say, I’ve listened to a couple of London canvassers complain about the response Khan was getting, so I could believe that between anecdotal reports and confirmation bias, a rumour could become a (totally BS) narrative.

Doesn’t make it any less embarrassing - but I can see how we got here.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the West Midlands result also may be closer than we thought yesterday.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway Stroud was one of the more uncertatin and last councils to count. No Labour defectors, whose actions are much older than Gaza, re-elected so far, and the Greens failing to make much headway despite their lead and targeting. Instead Labour are walking back in and them and the Greens are taking Tory seats.

[Torrain]

Final tabulation in London mayoral race not expected until 16.30 - but BBC now calling it for Khan.

Official forecast is 43% for Khan, and 33% for Hall - via Curtice.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786752065416409577

[Bono]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786752065416409577

Based on this I'm guessing whether Street wins or not will be down to how many votes the candidate for mayor of Gaza managed to syphon off.

[Oryxslayer]

West Midlands P&C is 61.8 - 38.2 Labour. Yes Labour have the incumbent, but Street would need ticket splitting above what the polls said, and not lose voters to Reform in the western councils.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786752065416409577

Based on this I'm guessing whether Street wins or not will be down to how many votes the candidate for mayor of Gaza managed to syphon off.

Aye - all comes down Gaza disquiet and personal vote for Street.

Counting done in Brum now. Results due in the next hour, per the BBC.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786753951502631370

[Oryxslayer]

Burnham Landslide comes through as expected in Manchester. Tories close to Reform, but their candidate issues here make that unsuprising.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786761281761931534

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

[Blair]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

Rumours the original "result" had Street losing by a few thousand votes.

[DL]

When has a recount EVER overturned a loss by over 100 votes let alone over 1,000?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

Rumours the original "result" had Street losing by a few thousand votes.

Source is Tories requested the recount. You don't do that when ahead. So Put "couple thousand" and "recount" together and we know the result.

[CumbrianLefty]

When has a recount EVER overturned a loss by over 100 votes let alone over 1,000?

My thought as well - it *is* a big electorate, mind.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786772357735997709

[afleitch]

Buried alive...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786772357735997709

The smells like reform pulling Street under in the Black Country. Which given the tight result, is going to look awful for Westminster and Sunak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour winning because of a better performance in the Black Country boroughs despite everything else would be the single funniest possible outcome, if that is how things end up going.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

Rumours the original "result" had Street losing by a few thousand votes.

Source is Tories requested the recount. You don't do that when ahead. So Put "couple thousand" and "recount" together and we know the result.

I have a recollection of Amber Rudd requesting a recount in Hastings & Rye in 2017, which she won with a majority of 346. There's a further recollection that she hired some kind of agent some time after that who would help her increase her majority (surely keeping the seat, regardless of the majority, should have been the main aim?).

[afleitch]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better