Census population estimates 2011-2019

[cinyc]

Could also be immigrants moving to some of the state's manufacturing centers for work. Could also be the Indianapolis suburbs. Guess we will see what parts grew when county estimates come out in March.

My images are currently caught up in Gallery hold purgatory, but yes - a lot of the Indiana population gain so far this decade (up to 2018 - the latest data available) has been centered in Indianapolis and its suburbs.

Edited to add: Indiana Numerical Change Map:


Indiana Percentage Change Map:

[cinyc]

Really surprised at VA being below average considering the Amazon HQ2 decision in late 2018. Of course, it could be statistical noise - @cinyc do you have at hand the VA growth estimates and the national estimates?

I'm also kinda surprised at the low growth in the last decade in Alabama. I'd love to see a county-level breakdown there. I was under the impression that Madison/Huntsville is exploding and, although I guess the Recession was tough on Birmingham, when I visited I got the impression it was experiencing some growth. Maybe being so close to Atlanta is sucking away a lot of talent.

Here's NoVa (DC TV market) vs Rest of VA - as of the 2010-18 County Estimates. These will likely be backwards revised downwards in '19, as the state data generally was:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1211796083489353728

Upstate vs. Downstate NY (Downstate = NYC + LI + Westchester/Rockland/Putnam/Orange):

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1211792149681000448

[cinyc]

Election Data Services is out with their seat projection:

https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/NR_Appor19wTablesMaps.pdf

They give the 435th seat to Florida. NY keeps its 26th (#432 - so NY is -1). Minnesota and Alabama lose 1 each (#436 & 437). CA loses CA-53 (#439). MT-02 is #434. TX-39 is #433.

They also note this, which may be relevant to any analysis that tries to take into account the overseas military/foreign employee population (which they don't seem to have tried to do):

For 2020 the Census Bureau has changed the “residency rules” for counting the military by creating a distinction between personnel who are deployed overseas (usually for short periods of time) compared to those who are stationed or assigned overseas (frequently for longer periods of time). The Bureau will use DOD’s administrative records to count deployed personnel at their usual residence in the US for both apportionment and redistricting purposes (they will be embedded within the state’s resident population counts). On the other hand, personnel who are stationed or assigned overseas will be counted to their “home state of record” for apportionment purposes only and will show up as part of a state’s total “overseas count” when the Bureau releases the final and official apportionment data by December, 31, 2020. Military sources have told the Census Bureau that of all overseas military, approximately 15% are deployed personnel and 85% are stationed or assigned overseas.

Overall, their projection is:

States Gaining Districts (7)
Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

States Losing Districts (10)
Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
California -1 (from 53 to 52)
Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -1 (from 27 to 26)
Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

[cinyc]

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.

How close is AL from keeping its 7th seat? EDS says they'd need to pick up 10,072 unexpected residents to keep their seat - but I don't think that takes into account the overseas population. AL has more military than most states (2.23% of the 2010 overseas pop vs. 1.55% of the overall 2019 pop) - so I suspect it's closer than that.

[cinyc]

I guess in terms of movement of people, you'd probably expect a similar impact to after the financial crisis hit, but at a higher intensity?

Probably.

For census taking, it is actually better if people are not bouncing and moving around between states and rather stay home.

Except, perhaps, for college students who have been kicked out of their dorms. Census says they still should be counted on campus, but parents might be putting them on their home forms. There’s a process for removing duplicates. It’s probably more important now than ever.

[cinyc]

Interactive map:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/51-2019-county-population-change-mutlimap

Default map is 2010EB-2019 Percentage change. Click on Menu to see yearly maps, PCT (percentage) and NUM (numerical change), like 2018-19.

[cinyc]

Interactive map:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/51-2019-county-population-change-mutlimap

Default map is 2010EB-2019 Percentage change. Click on Menu to see yearly maps, PCT (percentage) and NUM (numerical change), like 2018-19.

Your maps are always a welcome sight.

Thanks!

I threw this one together fairly quickly, so please let me know if there are any errors.

[cinyc]

Florida might not gain it's second seat,  and Texas might not get it's third.

https://twitter.com/wiscott44/status/1243291452655808512

The state numbers haven't changed at all since the December state estimates release. All we got today was the county breakdown of those state numbers. We'll get the further incorporated place breakdown in May.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.

12:01 AM EDT, 21 May 2020.

That’s when the press embargo will be lifted and the press kit released.

Usually, Census doesn’t release the actual data until the morning, around 10AM. We’ll see if this time is any different.

My interactive maps will be updated some time on Thursday.

[cinyc]

Wonder what it takes to qualify as "media" these days.  If you were a representative of the Talk Elections Blog, would that qualify?

I don’t know, but I wouldn’t want to use my real name and would be worried about inadvertently violating the embargo.

I think the media gets access to the data tomorrow so they can write their stories midnight Thursday.

[cinyc]

The 2019 city estimate press release is out:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/south-west-fastest-growing.html

Leander, TX, Apex, NC and Chico, CA were the fastest-growing cities with a 2018 population over 50k year-over-year.

Phoenix and San Antonio added the most new residents from July 1, 2018-19.

As expected, the actual data won't be available until around 10AM tomorrow, so no new maps tonight.

[cinyc]

The 2019 version of the town (incorporated place, minor civil division & county remainder) pop change map is now live:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/pop-change

Default map is 2010-19. Click on Menu to change what's mapped. 19% = PCT change; 19# = Numerical change. Even the old 2016-18 vintage estimates are there under the 16-18 tabs.

Paradise, CA's loss was really Chico's gain. Paradise, devastated by wildfires, lost over 80% of its population year-over-year.

[cinyc]

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.

Chicago will still the the 3rd largest Metropolitan Area for a while. But yes, the DC-Baltimore-Arlington CSA will pass Chicago-Naperville this year. It might have already done so.

[cinyc]

Cinyc, what odds do you place on NY losing 2 seats rather than 1? Whether NY loses two CD's or one has a big impact on the options for the border of the current NY-19 given NY's funnel shape.  NY clearly has the oddest shape of all 50 states in my opinion.

How accurate is the census when it asks where one lived on April 1 four months later? Is there any data that addresses that issue? I assume there will be more late responses this year than in the past.

Given the COVID-related escape from NYC (especially Manhattan), I think NYC losing 2 seats is a lot more likely than the 2019 estimates and forecasts say. I'd almost bet on it.

There's a thread on the General board about Census' efforts. I haven't updated my interactive map vs 2010 in a while, but areas of NYC - especially on the Upper East Side near Central Park - were really lagging their 2010 response rates in mid-May. Response rates haven't increased much since.

[cinyc]

Cinyc, what odds do you place on NY losing 2 seats rather than 1? Whether NY loses two CD's or one has a big impact on the options for the border of the current NY-19 given NY's funnel shape.  NY clearly has the oddest shape of all 50 states in my opinion.

How accurate is the census when it asks where one lived on April 1 four months later? Is there any data that addresses that issue? I assume there will be more late responses this year than in the past.

Given the COVID-related escape from NYC (especially Manhattan), I think NYC losing 2 seats is a lot more likely than the 2019 estimates and forecasts say. I'd almost bet on it.

There's a thread on the General board about Census' efforts. I haven't updated my interactive map vs 2010 in a while, but areas of NYC - especially on the Upper East Side near Central Park - were really lagging their 2010 response rates in mid-May. Response rates haven't increased much since.

Thank you.  Except isn't most of the great escape from NYC after April 1? Is your opinion in part premised that those who fled will not fill out the form stating that they lived in NY on April 1 even if they did? Due to the great escape the Hudson rental market is doing very well these days. A lot of over priced listings also appeared as property owners try to cash in. Whether or not their pecuniary dreams come true remains to be seen.

If people aren't home to get their forms/Internet invitations, how are they going to respond? I suspect many won't.

This map is a little old, but just zoom into NYC here:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/20-census/may-response-rate-maps

As of mid-May, response rates in parts of Manhattan were in the blue range, meaning 20-40 points worse than 2010's final self-response rate. Most others were dark green (-15 to -20).  Whether that's due to the virus or people buying trophy properties, I don't know for sure. But compare to the rest of the country, which is usually near - and sometimes above - its 2010 final self-response rate.

Census has some work to do in NYC.

[cinyc]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/study-in-a-first-california-poised-to-lose-house-seats/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=tw-mercnews

It smells like clickbait, but at the same time California has a large number of 'hard to count' census regions, mostly areas in the valley with Rural Hispanic populations. The article mostly talks about the effects and why it might happen, corona and ensuing response rates, rather than the math behind it - typical of puff pieces. So, could our resident calculators like Jimrtex and Cinyc voice in on the scenario outlined about California losing two seats.

It's certainly possible. There are areas near downtown and Westside LA that are currently severely under-reporting compared to 2010, though. Like worse than Upper East Side Manhattan levels of bad. I have no clue why. In Manhattan, it's likely due to the virus exodus. OC is in much better shape - and there's a stark divide that nearly mirrors the county line.

I tried to find the relevant study mentioned in the article and came up with nothing more substantive than the article. I can't find any more recent ESRI report than what was put out last year.