MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25
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  MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25  (Read 234632 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2150 on: May 25, 2017, 08:52:25 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on May 25, 2017, 08:38:22 PM
Does MT break down Early Voting vs ED Voting like California does for example, or do we just need to read tea leaves based upon early returns?

Reason I'm asking has nothing really to do with any partisan interest in the outcome of this election, but rather how we crunch and understand the numbers and election returns as they roll in from Montana on this election, and future elections as well.  (Good Poly-Sci data for any of you college students out there Wink )

I don't think it works like in California. It's probably the best to just pay attention to the county results, since there is no guarantee that the usual pattern will be replicated.  Like I said, Democrats generally (and by that I mean almost always) start out ahead once the first big vote dump comes in. After that, things should continue to tighten at some point.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #2151 on: May 25, 2017, 08:52:29 PM »
The suspense is killing me lol. I've been so vested in this election.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2152 on: May 25, 2017, 08:53:51 PM »
How will the loser concede? Will there be a pin down?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2153 on: May 25, 2017, 08:54:46 PM »
Quote from: TD on May 25, 2017, 08:53:51 PM
How will the loser concede? Will there be a pin down?
The election will be over when the loser taps out
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OneJ
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« Reply #2154 on: May 25, 2017, 08:54:49 PM »
Quote from: McGovernForPrez on May 25, 2017, 08:52:29 PM
The suspense is killing me lol. I've been so vested in this election.

I feel the same. I have goosebumps now actually. Lol.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2155 on: May 25, 2017, 08:55:45 PM »
It sucks to have been prepared for a Gianforte win only to see it all come crumbling down the day before the election.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2156 on: May 25, 2017, 08:56:52 PM »
Just 4 more minutes, the nerd in me is excited.
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Progressive
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« Reply #2157 on: May 25, 2017, 08:57:14 PM »
What are some good results pages?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2158 on: May 25, 2017, 08:57:40 PM »
I'm predicting Quist +0.5.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #2159 on: May 25, 2017, 08:58:12 PM »
2 minutes to takeoff
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OneJ
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« Reply #2160 on: May 25, 2017, 08:58:38 PM »

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election
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Progressive
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« Reply #2161 on: May 25, 2017, 08:58:44 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on May 25, 2017, 08:56:52 PM
Just 4 more minutes, the nerd in me is excited.

Me too. But I've been heartbroken so much this year. I would've been heartbroken in 2012 if Obama lost, too, but this is different. What results page are you using?
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Shadows
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« Reply #2162 on: May 25, 2017, 08:58:50 PM »
Quote from: TheSaint250 on May 25, 2017, 08:55:45 PM
It sucks to have been prepared for a Gianforte win only to see it all come crumbling down the day before the election.

He has a good chance to win & then body-slamming celebrations will be a new thing !
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #2163 on: May 25, 2017, 09:00:03 PM »
Quote from: Progressive on May 25, 2017, 08:58:44 PM
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on May 25, 2017, 08:56:52 PM
Just 4 more minutes, the nerd in me is excited.

Me too. But I've been heartbroken so much this year. I would've been heartbroken in 2012 if Obama lost, too, but this is different. What results page are you using?
NYT is the best imo https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Might also check in with DDHQ since they sometimes get things faster somehow.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #2164 on: May 25, 2017, 09:00:18 PM »
The show begins!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #2165 on: May 25, 2017, 09:00:25 PM »
One dynamic I'll be curious to watch is that Billings did not follow the trend of mid-to-large size cities trending D in 2016. How will Yellowstone County trend compared to the state as a whole in this election compared to the presidential results?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #2166 on: May 25, 2017, 09:00:46 PM »
It's 10:00 and here we go with a New Democratic seat probably
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2167 on: May 25, 2017, 09:01:09 PM »
Yellowstone is a good place to watch, Gianforte needs to do very well there.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2168 on: May 25, 2017, 09:01:25 PM »
All results pages:

Associated Press
Decision Desk
NY Times
Secretary of State
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Angrie
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« Reply #2169 on: May 25, 2017, 09:01:37 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY1k1GcZRww
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2170 on: May 25, 2017, 09:02:07 PM »
Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT  2m2 minutes ago
GOP firm Remington Research did a robo poll today in MT to test awareness of body-slam:

93% had heard of it. 
9% said voted Quist bc of it
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2171 on: May 25, 2017, 09:02:16 PM »
Montana State Board of Elections

New York Times results page
Fivethirty Eight results and analysis
Decision Desk HQ

MT Treasurer's post here for easy access

Associated Press
Decision Desk
NY Times
Secretary of State
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Skunk
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« Reply #2172 on: May 25, 2017, 09:03:03 PM »
Quote from: Castro on May 25, 2017, 09:02:07 PM
Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT  2m2 minutes ago
GOP firm Remington Research did a robo poll today in MT to test awareness of body-slam:

93% had heard of it. 
9% said voted Quist bc of it

9% is actually higher than what I thought it was gonna be, lol.
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VPH
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« Reply #2173 on: May 25, 2017, 09:03:42 PM »
Quote from: Castro on May 25, 2017, 09:02:07 PM
Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT  2m2 minutes ago
GOP firm Remington Research did a robo poll today in MT to test awareness of body-slam:

93% had heard of it. 
9% said voted Quist bc of it
Interesting. What was the sample? Everybody? (9% would be a big deal if so)
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2174 on: May 25, 2017, 09:04:06 PM »
you never know how many quist fans lie about this.
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