MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Tender Branson]

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/early-turnout-at-metrapark-polls-is-light-despite-gianforte-s/article_ec11bb83-c76e-51a5-bf93-f11b9f1f6c2d.html

couldn't that be a sign of republican depression?

Not necessarily. It could only mean that people liked to vote by mail, rather than at the precinct. If a lot of people vote by mail, not many additional voters will vote at the precinct.

[Sorenroy]

If I was a conservative and was confident that Gianforte's victory would mean another election with a new Republican candidate, I'd probably still vote for him. I can't really see how any other vote for the man himself is anything other than blind partisanship.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am going to tinker my takes according to ED vote, turnout and closeness of the final results.

if ED vote goes comparably bad for GF...it's okay, even if he wins.

if - in general - it's a VERY CLOSE race and he wins....it's also okay.

if GF wins in a 5-10 points blowout and got a big ED lead....i am going to blame tribalism and media hate on the fringe-right for cultivating madness.

[Gass3268]

Constitutional issue was settled in McCormack v. Powell. I still think GG wins.

But I think they could seat him and then expel him afterwards if convicted, correct?

[MT Treasurer]

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/early-turnout-at-metrapark-polls-is-light-despite-gianforte-s/article_ec11bb83-c76e-51a5-bf93-f11b9f1f6c2d.html

couldn't that be a sign of republican depression?

Oh, not saying this is good news for anyone, but someone asked for "early turnout reports".

@Arch: NYTimes, Decision Desk and the SOS page are all good websites. Also the AP if you don't care about the county by county results.

[Sorenroy]

@Arch: NYTimes, Decision Desk and the SOS page are all good websites. Also the AP if you don't care about the county by county results.

AP by county: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/MT_Page_0525.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

But yeah, AP has no maps.

[Fubart Solman]

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/early-turnout-at-metrapark-polls-is-light-despite-gianforte-s/article_ec11bb83-c76e-51a5-bf93-f11b9f1f6c2d.html

couldn't that be a sign of republican depression?

Oh, not saying this is good news for anyone, but someone asked for "early turnout reports".

@Arch: NYTimes, Decision Desk and the SOS page are all good websites. Also the AP if you don't care about the county by county results.

Eww. We have to know how Lake County votes!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Constitutional issue was settled in McCormack v. Powell. I still think GG wins.

But I think they could seat him and then expel him afterwards if convicted, correct?

Yes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/12/how-to-get-kicked-out-of-congress/67462/

[Tender Branson]

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/early-turnout-at-metrapark-polls-is-light-despite-gianforte-s/article_ec11bb83-c76e-51a5-bf93-f11b9f1f6c2d.html

couldn't that be a sign of republican depression?

Oh, not saying this is good news for anyone, but someone asked for "early turnout reports".

@Arch: NYTimes, Decision Desk and the SOS page are all good websites. Also the AP if you don't care about the county by county results.

The AP site has both the statewide results, as well as the county-by-county results ...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/MT_Page_0525.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/MT_Page_0525.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Ebsy]

Election day turnout in Yellowstone is always going to be low; something like 80% of their votes are usually cast early.

[ApatheticAustrian]

at this point i wonder how paul ryan can swallow all this nastiness.

i mean, don't get me wrong, as a fellow liberal rothschild illuminati soros partner, i think ryan's ideas are REALLY nasty but in his heart he always seemed quite innocent and believing himself to be a good guy......now he is defending and ignoring ruffians, adulterers and people tangling with treason....this must make mcconell-like things with your soul.

in other news....Rush Limbaugh is able to talk about this story without mentioning the Fox team. :-)

[Shadows]

Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

[ApatheticAustrian]

when not destroying american's HC sys, mark sanford makes sense.

[Classic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyungLahCNN
Interesting thread.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

when not destroying american's HC sys, mark sanford makes sense.

This is not a statement, it's a bunch of confusing gibberish.

[ApatheticAustrian]

This is not a statement, it's a bunch of confusing gibberish.

i think it's the most forceful statement i have seen from any ELECTED republican since yesterday.

[MT Treasurer]

Btw....

As of 5/24:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

(Numbers for Cascade County are probably an error and will be fixed soon.)

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 68.2% of mail-ins returned (-0.1???)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 74.0% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 68.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 77.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.5)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 77.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.1)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 68.5% of mail-ins returned (+2.6)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 78.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.9)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 73.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 72.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

STATEWIDE: 72.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Added the change (5/23-5/24) in brackets.

[ApatheticAustrian]

thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggies?

[OneJ]

Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

I agree with Shadows here. If he wouldn't call out Trump's tape, why would he call out Gianforte's?

[Adam Griffin]

This is not a statement, it's a bunch of confusing gibberish.

That's likely the fault of whoever wrote the transcript. I can see multiple instances where punctuation and/or new sentences should have been used that weren't.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I was a conservative and was confident that Gianforte's victory would mean another election with a new Republican candidate, I'd probably still vote for him. I can't really see how any other vote for the man himself is anything other than blind partisanship.

This. Either vote for Quist or vote to do this all over again. Nobody wants to vote for Crazy Greg now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

I agree with Shadows here. If he wouldn't call out Trump's tape, why would he call out Gianforte's?

ryan DID call out trump's tape.

at that point he proclaimed, he wouldn't defend him anymore and every republican was on his own re: this question.

[SoLongAtlas]

thanks a lot, MT!

since i am greedy....is MT "small" enough that all counties are necessary or...which one are the biggues?

https://www.montana-demographics.com/counties_by_population Yellowstone, Missoula, Gallatin are the largest by population. Most counties are big but the whole state is fairly rural and spreadout so county-wise it wouldn't make that much of a difference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_Montana

[The Other Castro]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

[Matty]

How can you possibly know the preferences of the early voters, with no polling and no data other than turnout in counties?

Roe seems to me talking out of his poop chute