MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The Other Castro]

>Congressional races are hard to poll

Some teenager in his basement I swear to god.

I thought you were joking, but they legit said this.

Gravis Marketing‏ @GravisMarketing  8m8 minutes ago
Rest of poll. It looks to us the libertarian is hurting the Dem with young voters and Indy.  congressional races are typically hard to Poll

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

While this "poll" is not comforting in any way, I don't believe it signifies the end.

[This account no longer in use.]

While this "poll" is not comforting in any way, I don't believe it signifies the end.

Yeah; this is basically just a step or two above the unholy trinity of ARG, Overtime, and Zogby.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Was the meme that Gravis was the most accurate pollster of 2016 just that - a meme?

[heatcharger]

I'll trust that real Republican internal that had Trump's favorability at 46/47. Seems more reasonable anyway.

[_]

This is so ridiculous, ban Gravis forever.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both campaigns had enough resources for a house race, couldn't one of them have commissioned at least one darn respectable poll?

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I warned you guys before. Just wait until you see cinyc's Google poll, you're going to be even more surprised, haha.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Was the meme that Gravis was the most accurate pollster of 2016 just that - a meme?

Yeah, that was a meme. The most accurate pollster in 2016 was Trafalgar, which has continued to be accurate in later surveys regarding the Louisiana Runoff and the SC-5 R primary runoff.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

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Baloney.

[cinyc]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

Gravis Poll:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349160889/Montana-May-22-2017-Gravis-Marketing

[The Other Castro]

This is my submission for Worst Pollster of the Year award, if we do one of those threads at the end of 2017.

[Kamala]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

But they have decimals! How could they ever be inaccurate!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

[Ronnie]

Do my eyes deceive me, or does that poll give Trump an 80% approval rating with Hispanics, and a 58% approval rating with postgraduates?

[MT Treasurer]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

[cinyc]

Do my eyes deceive me, or does that poll give Trump an 80% approval rating with Hispanics, and a 58% approval rating with postgraduates?

There are very few Hispanics in Montana - about 2% of the VAP, or roughly 10,000.  So the MoE is likely very high.  There are even fewer Asians.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

Hispanics approve of Trump 80%-18%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 63%-21%, but Whites only approve of him 47%-45%?!?

Gianforte is also leading among Hispanics 75%-19%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 59%-20%, but only 47%-38% among whites.

Also the gender gap is too big to be believed - Quist is ahead 47%-38% among Women, but Gianforte leads by 60% to 21% with men. Sorry, but a nearly fifty point gender gap is not realistic.


This poll ------> Trash

[JohnCA246]

Is there no runoff in this election?

[Miles]

^ No.

[Shadows]

Either ways Trump's 80% approval among Hispanics is just hilarious. There are so many other aspects but this takes the cake, trying to validate what Trump says - He loves Hispanics & Hispanics love him !

[cinyc]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

Hispanics approve of Trump 80%-18%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 63%-21%, but Whites only approve of him 47%-45%?!?

Gianforte is also leading among Hispanics 75%-19%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 59%-20%, but only 47%-38% among whites.

Again, low sample sizes lead to strange results.  2% of the VAP is Hispanic, according to the 2016 CPS.  Less than 1% are Asian or Black.

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You should see the East vs. West regional gap in the Google Surveys we've done so far - they're also large.  You're always going to end up with some wonky cross-tabs.

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Probably.

[Holmes]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

Well, they actually pulled numbers out of their ass as per.

[Miles]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Other than Obama in 2008, I can't find a statewide race since 2000 where it picked the wrong winner.  

[cinyc]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Other than Obama in 2008, I can't find a statewide race since 2000 where it picked the wrong winner.  

Lake County is kind of a bizarre bellwether.  Most of it is on the Flathead Indian Reservation, and it's 22% Native American.  Its demographics are not reflective of the rest of Montana.