MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[This account no longer in use.]

I feel like this race is still winnable for the Democrats, but to do so they would have to abandon Ossoff. R Hold.

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.

Well, PPP polled Harambe in the Presidential race last year, and I'm pretty sure he wasn't running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

In other words, the DNC was right and atlas (especially the Sanders die-hards) was wrong.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

   I'm wondering whether having a pollster include a candidate who isn't on the ballot, nor even running as a write in candidate as a response possibility represents a new low in the industry.

Well, PPP polled Harambe in the Presidential race last year, and I'm pretty sure he wasn't running.

Yeah, but it was done as a side question - they still asked their sample about the real race.

[Shadows]

It's a mid single digit race & a high turnout could hand Quist the race. The Republican is definitely favored at this point & it is a lean R race but this is by no means over, this is a special election & the Dem base is more likely to turnout !

[MT Treasurer]

Unless a Republican in Montana holds consistent double digit leads in the polls, they aren't safe. This race certainly isn't over yet, even the MT GOP knows this.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Unless a Republican in Montana holds consistent double digit leads in the polls, they aren't safe. This race certainly isn't over yet, even the MT GOP knows this.

If a democratic internal has Gianforte +7, the actual state of things is probably around Gianforte +12.

[MT Treasurer]

Unless a Republican in Montana holds consistent double digit leads in the polls, they aren't safe. This race certainly isn't over yet, even the MT GOP knows this.

If a democratic internal has Gianforte +7, the actual state of things is probably around Gianforte +12.

I wouldn't unskew polls like that, plus that "internal" poll was taken several weeks ago. The state is too inelastic and Democratic for him to win by 10+ points, and special elections can be unpredictable.

I mean, Pianoforte will probably win, but Republicans need to campaign here as if they are 10 points behind and take nothing for granted.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

In other words, the DNC was right and atlas (especially the Sanders die-hards) was wrong.

I was making my prediction before it was revealed how thoroughly mediocre Quist (apparently) was as a candidate. I think this is less evidence for whether the DCCC was right or wrong to get involved early; Montana is clearly (in fundamentals) about as winnable if not moreso than the GA 6 (unless there are Democrats getting re-elected with 60%+ of the vote in the GA 6 I'm unaware of).

This is more about local candidate recruitment needing to do its homework.

[publicunofficial]

-Democratic Party puts in very little effort to help, or comes in late after a barrage of ads
-D Candidate loses race
-"See guys, the DNC was smart not to invest here"
-Rinse, repeat, forever

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

-Democratic Party puts in very little effort to help, or comes in late after a barrage of ads
-D Candidate loses race
-"See guys, the DNC DCCC was smart not to invest here"
-Rinse, repeat, forever

Seriously. Even just sending a research team in the first month to dig up more on Gianforte so that you can drop a negative story every time they dropped one on Quist probably would have helped this race immeasurably.

[Virginiá]

I'm not trying to be a dick, but the same could be said in reverse as well.

It's undeniable the boneheaded decisions the national party often makes, but at the same time, we don't know all the factors going into their decisions, including financial.

I'm just saying that if any of us were put in charge of things like this, we might find things are not as obvious or easy as it may appear from the outside.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Seriously. Even just sending a research team in the first month to dig up more on Gianforte so that you can drop a negative story every time they dropped one on Quist probably would have helped this race immeasurably.

It's what they did, though? Bullock ran incredibly negative ads against PF in 2012, so it's not as if they have much more to use against him.

I was admittedly watching the race from the newspapers (Billings Gazette, Missoulian, Helena IR) but it didn't seem like Quist was adequately finding new things or reframing the old things.

[Beet]

I just watched the first 11 minutes of this debate, and I can't go on. It's clear why Quist isn't doing well. He is nervous, and he is throwing out obviously prerehearsed lines, whereas Gianforte's experience with his previous campaign has obviously paid off, as he is relaxed and speaking extemporaneously. This makes him seem more genuine. Also, the fact that guns are even an issue is sad. In a state like Montana, there should be no difference on guns between the candidates unless something unusual is going on. The Democrats are probably starting to see that shoehorning in a 69 year old with no experience in politics wasn't the best idea.

[Shadows]

Quist looks like a nervous political novice with an average campaign while Greg is like a slimy douchebag politician who has done this time n again & knows how to play the political game.

Having said that, this is race that Hillary Clinton lost by 21%, the state leg is solid R, Zinke always won, the other seat is with the GOP. Democrats need to have a good candidate, run a strong campaign & require the GOP to run an average campaign with an average candidate to win this.

People are exaggerating how bad Quist is doing in typical atlas style & Greg didn't run a perfect campaign, staying home & stuff. You have to give Quist some time, he is kinda learning the ropes. Anyways I think this race is around 5/6% R at the moment, kind of lean R & a high turnout can cause an upset. It is by no means over & special elections are all about turnout !

[GoldenMainer]

When is my man Bernie getting up there to campaign with Quist?

[cinyc]

When is my man Bernie getting up there to campaign with Quist?

I don't think they've set a date yet.  The Missoulian says sometime later this month, in their article noting that Vice President Pence will campaign and fundraise for Gianforte in Billings this Friday.

[Ebsy]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

Source? Last I checked in spending was around 600k.

And I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

[Ebsy]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

Source? Last I checked in spending was around 600k.

And I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

There are only 10 Democrats on that list that the DCCC spent more in favor of then they have on Quist, with the rest of the larger dollar spending being directed against Republican candidates. All of the seats on that list are more marginal than MT-AL.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

Source? Last I checked in spending was around 600k.

And I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

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There are only 10 Democrats on that list that the DCCC spent more in favor of then they have on Quist, with the rest of the larger dollar spending being directed against Republican candidates. All of the seats on that list are more marginal than MT-AL.

Okay, so you're not substantially disagreeing with the 600k number?

And again,

I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Congratulations to Pianoforte or the RNCC are due for running a very good research operation. They've established a narrative, made consistent drops, and none of it has reflected poorly on the candidate.

[Pandaguineapig]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Mr. Trump please stop, I'm tired of all this winning!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Mr. Trump please stop, I'm tired of all this winning!

Please tell me what this has to do with President Trump. At all.