MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[GlobeSoc]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

why

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

why

Seems approximately equal to my back-of-the-napkin guesstimation of what they invested in the GA-6, so it's probably to paper over reputational hit they've been taking on it.


I really wish they'd just given the state party the 600k when he won the nomination though.

[socaldem]

The "Wichita had a much bigger anti-Trump backlash than the rest of the district" thing is basically a myth.

Um, how so?

The election results are what they are. And Thompson over-performed in Wichita and under-performed in the rural areas compared to historical Democratic performance.

[cinyc]

Local papers are now reporting Quist under-reported his income.

Stick a fork in him, boys, he's done.

Ugh. That seems hard to recover from.

Quist's argument is that the original disclosure form was due before he did his 2016 taxes, so he didn't have all the numbers together when he did the original disclosure.  He characterizes the change as an amendment to the original forum.

It doesn't look good that this amendment only happened after the press started asking questions, though.

[Figueira]

The "Wichita had a much bigger anti-Trump backlash than the rest of the district" thing is basically a myth.

Um, how so?

The election results are what they are. And Thompson over-performed in Wichita and under-performed in the rural areas compared to historical Democratic performance.

Compared to Clinton, he overperformed everywhere, and he overperformed in Sedgwick County exactly as much as in the rest of the district.

Of course, it's probably different if we compared him to Pompeo's 2016 opponent (anyone have county data for that race?) but we were talking about the "anti-Trump backlash."

[MT Treasurer]

This story isn't being reported very thoroughly in local media and I would be surprised if this changed anyone's vote. Also, you can call Rob Quist many things, but "Socialist" isn't one of them. The man is basically a generic Democrat, and his voting record wouldn't be any different than Ossoff's, who Wulfric seems to be endorsing enthusiastically.

[MT Treasurer]

Btw, Quist cast his ballot yesterday.

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[Kantakouzenos]

Is it possible that this new healthcare bill could have an affect on the race in the state depending on what is said by who about the final bill?  This race hasn't really taken center stage, but is it possible that it could still drag down Gianforte's chances (I assume it can only hurt him since new healthcare bills are basically never popular)?

[Tintrlvr]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

why

Seems approximately equal to my back-of-the-napkin guesstimation of what they invested in the GA-6, so it's probably to paper over reputational hit they've been taking on it.


I really wish they'd just given the state party the 600k when he won the nomination though.

[Maxwell]

I don't want to be a stereotypical lame lib, but until Trump releases his tax returns I really don't give a hoot what happens with Quists taxes and I assume many Montanans feel he's just an honest guy being attacked by Gianforte henchmen.

[cinyc]

I don't want to be a stereotypical lame lib, but until Trump releases his tax returns I really don't give a hoot what happens with Quists taxes and I assume many Montanans feel he's just an honest guy being attacked by Gianforte henchmen.

It's not Quist's tax returns which is at issue, but his financial disclosure form - which Trump filled out.  And Gianforte's henchmen didn't have anything to do with it.  The AP was the one asking questions.

But never let spin get in the way of the facts.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This story isn't being reported very thoroughly in local media and I would be surprised if this changed anyone's vote. Also, you can call Rob Quist many things, but "Socialist" isn't one of them. The man is basically a generic Democrat, and his voting record wouldn't be any different than Ossoff's, who Wulfric seems to be endorsing enthusiastically.

I've made clear on IRC that he's not my favorite Dem. But if Dems don't pick up the seat, I don't think they get the house in '18. And they need to get it so we can stop Trump. I'm committed to Ossoff to achieve that goal.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Oh sure, I'm saying that his support would go up,not that he has the support to win off the ahca alone.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Oh sure, I'm saying that his support would go up,not that he has the support to win off the ahca alone.

I was thinking the same thing to but I think there is a better chance that it affects GA-6 more than MT-AL. Still heading into election day with a Health Care debate will hurt Gianforte especially if the CBO score is worse than the last one. I think the race will still be in single digits regardless of who wins.

[Figueira]

TNV, what events do you think could allow Quist to win, or conversely expand Gianforte's margin of victory? You seem rather bearish on anything having an effect.

[Pericles]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Hillarycare 1994.

[swf541]

I'm actually thinking that a poorly timed senate fight over the ahca could give Quist about a ~5% boost from spooked democrats turning out and annoyed moderate republicans thinking about checking the party's current agenda and thus defecting.

This thing isn't going to hurt Republicans unless they can pass it in the Senate - in other words, not going to happen. But I admire your optimism.

If Quist wins, it won't be because of this.

Hillarycare 1994.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

[GlobeSoc]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

I'm not sure if this statement will help or hurt him

[Chief Justice Keef]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

I'm not sure if this statement will help or hurt him

If the Quist campaign highlights Gianforte's flip-flop on it and emphasizes Quist's support for universal healthcare that might boost his numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel
Scoop: On donor call, Sen. Daines says VP Pence will come next week to campaign for #MTAL nominee Greg Gianforte. (Dems making it close.)

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/860526160828145665

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel
Scoop: On donor call, Sen. Daines says VP Pence will come next week to campaign for #MTAL nominee Greg Gianforte. (Dems making it close.)

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/860526160828145665

Quist is not dead yet apparently

[MT Treasurer]

Quist was never dead and Dems were always going to make this close because it's Montana. Apparently, Trump jr. is also going to campaign with GF again.

I assume Quist is trailing by 5 right now.

This seems about right, honestly.