43rd British Columbia general election

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

I understand the context, but accidents still happen. Think of all those out-of-nowhere NDP MPs in 2011.

[mileslunn]

I don't think BC Conservatives will win.  Sure surprises can happen but I suspect if other polls show them tied or ahead, they will come under scrutiny and will win almost no seats or maybe zero west of Langley meaning cannot form government.  I do think a wake up call for BC NDP not to get complacent but I still think there is a 90%+ chance NDP wins.  BC is not a right wing province and while there is some support for conservative policies, not to level poll suggests.  Now in 2028, I could see them winning as right coalesces, they iron out the rougher edges and NDP being in power for 11 years means strong time for a change view.  Also with Poilievre, I don't think he will do as well as some polls say.  I think Conservatives get around 40% but quite possible fall into 30s if Trudeau is not Liberal leader or NDP distances themselves more from Trudeau. 

[adma]

Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

There is no Poilievre bleed, there is only a fraudulous "pollster".

Well, maybe not to the extent indicated by said "pollster", but there *is*, in the same sense that the Manitoba Libs have tended to poll better between provincial elections than during them, or like the Ontario zombie Libs did btw/Wynne & Crombie.  A projection of the national brand onto the provincial party bearing the same label.  (Which is another way of saying: let's not get too hasty in "reading" the numbers.)

[Flyersfan232]

I don't think BC Conservatives will win.  Sure surprises can happen but I suspect if other polls show them tied or ahead, they will come under scrutiny and will win almost no seats or maybe zero west of Langley meaning cannot form government.  I do think a wake up call for BC NDP not to get complacent but I still think there is a 90%+ chance NDP wins.  BC is not a right wing province and while there is some support for conservative policies, not to level poll suggests.  Now in 2028, I could see them winning as right coalesces, they iron out the rougher edges and NDP being in power for 11 years means strong time for a change view.  Also with Poilievre, I don't think he will do as well as some polls say.  I think Conservatives get around 40% but quite possible fall into 30s if Trudeau is not Liberal leader or NDP distances themselves more from Trudeau. 

the only way for the ndp to that is to end the agreement

[Hatman 🍁]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

Quito is a well known Liberal though, I'm not sure why he would want to do this.

What happened in Toronto made sense, I believe he was on the Bailao campaign. I also have a feeling his riding polling influenced the results in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (I believe he was on the Lehman campaign) in the 2022 provincial election. But, I'm not sure what his angle in BC is. Maybe he really just hates the NDP?

[adma]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

Quito is a well known Liberal though, I'm not sure why he would want to do this.

What happened in Toronto made sense, I believe he was on the Bailao campaign. I also have a feeling his riding polling influenced the results in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (I believe he was on the Lehman campaign) in the 2022 provincial election. But, I'm not sure what his angle in BC is. Maybe he really just hates the NDP?

Animus t/w "socialist hordes" kind of captures it.  Essentially, Quito likes to shill on behalf of the most viable establishment hack option.  And he sees that potential in the BC Cons, at least by way of their clear lead over BC United...

[Hatman 🍁]

I feel like in a BC NDP vs Cons race, the NDP is the establishment choice, though.

[adma]

I feel like in a BC NDP vs Cons race, the NDP is the establishment choice, though.

The Socialist Hordes as "establishment choice" is an oxymoron, to those of a certain sort.  (Incidentally, what's Nick Kouvalis doing these days?)

[mileslunn]

I feel like in a BC NDP vs Cons race, the NDP is the establishment choice, though.

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

[DL]

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I thought of the NDP as the establishment party. They're no longer thought of as the socialist hordes, and are probably closer to Biden than Sanders rhetorically.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I thought of the NDP as the establishment party. They're no longer thought of as the socialist hordes, and are probably closer to Biden than Sanders rhetorically.

The business community doesn't have the impact in British Columbia it used to for, I think the three following reasons, however many in the business community still hate the NDP and support any 'free enterprise' party that can defeat the NDP.

1.Campaign finance reform, the business community can't simply donate millions to other parties to defeat the NDP.

2.The business community is more diverse/diffuse. Unlike in the 1970s when the NDP were in power, the mining community isn't as dominant in the Interior especially, and unlike in the 1990s, the forestry community isn't as dominant in the Interior and the Coast.

One reason for this is that the there are natural limits to growth for resource industries, especially renewable resources. There are also some business sectors that tend to favor the NDP over education (high tech) and environmental regulations (tourism.) Of course, the NDP risks the support from the tourism sector with the ban on Air B&B short term rentals.

So, as British Columbia's population has increased by about 2 million since 1991, the forestry sector could only decline in importance. Of course, the first renewable resource sector that faced declining importance as populations increased was the fishery.

3.The media isn't as powerful as in the 1970s and the 1990s. People outside of British Columbia have no idea how high the percentage of British Columbians who watched BCTV news up to the 2000s was. Only that T.V show in Quebec has a higher percentage audience. Similarly, CKNW radio talk show host Rafe Mair was extremely powerful and was frequently demagogic.

So, these things aren't as widely known in British Columbia as they would have been in the 1990s, but, in addition to Air B&B, many in forestry hate the NDP for the changes they've pushed through on forest tenure, and the housing construction industry is threatening to 'go on strike' over the high costs the NDP have imposed (or allowed municipalities to impose) on new construction.

[adma]

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I thought of the NDP as the establishment party. They're no longer thought of as the socialist hordes, and are probably closer to Biden than Sanders rhetorically.

Actually, if I can see the BC Cons making any breakthroughs, it's not so much w/the business/establishment Libs a la Marrissen than within the ethnoburbs--not unlike Ford Nation, in fact...

[DL]

A big weakness for the BC Cons is that they are just coasting on a generic party brand right now . Their leader is totally unknown and that probably helps because he is very unappealing and the more people see John Rustad they less they will like him. He is not be any stretch of the imagination someone anyone can picture as premier

[lilTommy]

A big weakness for the BC Cons is that they are just coasting on a generic party brand right now . Their leader is totally unknown and that probably helps because he is very unappealing and the more people see John Rustad they less they will like him. He is not be any stretch of the imagination someone anyone can picture as premier

I absolutely think that is the case here; and if i'm not mistaken before the last two elections the BCC were polling much higher then the vote they actually ended up getting.
The problem is that this has exposed a real division within the free-market right in BC; the right-wing is parking their vote with the BCC while the more right-of-centre are mostly sticking to the BCU. The true centre has moved to the NDP. Ring-wing voters don't seem to be very happy at this moment with the BCU, but come the actual election that may change, especially if Rustad is not well liked and the BCU can pull the right back into their camp. OR what might happen is a split within the free-market right with the BCC winning/holding traditionally conservative rural seats and the BCU holding (maybe!) more urban/wealthy right-leaning seats. The issue is that the right can't afford any split, since that will lead to the NDP picking up even more seats with wins in the 30% range, that's all it will take if the right is split.

[mileslunn]

I agree Rustad riding high mainly due to federal party and I think when he comes under greater scrutiny likely falls.  BC Conservatives have lots of crazy candidates and I have found bozo eruptions tend to sink parties.  Yes we are in era where populism is at high point and some like more crazy types due to unhappiness with status quo but I don't think it is anywhere near enough to win.  If you look at demographics where right wing populists are doing well, BC largely lacks them.  Sure Interior may be favorable but Lower Mainland and most of Vancouver Island except maybe a few resource areas in north are generally hostile to this. 

I think in 2028 if merge and not too crazy could win as by then NDP in power for 11 years so desire for change will be high.  At same time if Poilievre becomes very unpopular (and good chance he does) that might save NDP.  Eby is by many seen as too much like Trudeau in that both are unabashed urban progressives.  Horgan was a progressive too but more your traditional blue collar type so had more crossover appeal.  But if Poilievre is PM, people may want a progressive premier to push back against his unpopular right wing policies.