Clinton's wins in GA and AZ

[Calthrina950]

Ross Perot I think split the votes there.

Clinton’s wins in AZ & GA in 1992 are an *

Without Perot, Clinton probably would have lost Colorado and Montana as well in 1992 (and he did lose them in 1996, when Perot's voteshare declined). An even weaker Perot candidacy in 1996 would have probably cost Clinton Tennessee and Kentucky as well, particularly the latter, where he won by less than 1%.

I agree with what has been said here. Clinton's 1992 map in Georgia saw him combining Democratic strength in the Black Belt and many of the "Yellow Dog" white rural counties with Atlanta and its immediate neighbors (Clayton and DeKalb Counties), enabling him to barely overcome Bush's suburban and mountain strength (and of course, with a considerable boost from Perot):

In 1996, however, Perot's voteshare declined, and Dole gained significantly in the Atlanta suburbs, winning Cobb, Gwinnett, and several of the surrounding counties with majorities (while Bush had gotten only pluralities in many of those counties in 1992). Clinton also did worse in rural Georgia, and several counties flipped to Dole. These three elements-the dropoff in Perot support, and the gains by Dole in both the Atlanta Metropolitan Area and in Rural Georgia-enabled him to flip the state:

As with Arizona, it fascinates me how Bill Clinton managed to pull off a victory there despite losing Maricopa County. Dole won Maricopa by slightly under 3%, while Clinton carried Pima County by double digits and did relatively well in outstate Arizona (he was the last Democrat to win the mining-dominated Greenlee County, which voted Democratic in every election from 1912-1996 before turning Republican in 2000). It seems that Clinton's strength in Pima, and the closeness of the margin in Maricopa, is what enabled him to eek out the victory there:

[Calthrina950]

Georgia I could understand. He was a southerner, which was usually a good success to pick up at least some states in that region when you are a democrat at this time frame. Such as Jimmy Carter. Plus if I recall correctly, Georgia was still relatively more democrat in 84 and 88 compared to other Southern states, barring ironically Tennesse, so with a unpopular incumbent, a democrat southerner, a moderate, and a already relatively democratic leaning comparatively state, it is not a shock. The low margin is more shocking.

Arizona, on the other hand, I don't really know the answer to aside from the fact that in that state at least, Perot had to have taken more from Bush and Dole respectively than Clinton

In addition to this, Dole did poorly among senior voters that year, due to issues surrounding Social Security and Medicare emanating from the Gingrich agenda in the mid-1990s. Senior voters, moreover, were still Democratic-leaning at this time, as they were predominantly of the Greatest Generation which had come of age under Roosevelt. Dole's weaknesses among senior citizens helped Clinton to win both Arizona and Florida.