2020 Oregon Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

Nah thats more subjective . A better example would be if the Ohio Supreme court just cancelled the county rules. Again it isn't that hard to find a road connection somewhere.  However the real issue isn't the court but if the OR GOP quorum busts.

If the OR GOP quorum busts, then the law is that OR SOS Shemia Fagan (a Democrat) draws the maps.

That's legislative, congressional goes to the courts which will def be Dem slanted although probably less so.

[OBD]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla. Might be smarter to adjust the sink accordingly, unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla.

They do, but the point is to make a hard 5-1 gerry without drawing bizarrely shaped districts.

unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

Yes.

[Tintrlvr]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla.

They do, but the point is to make a hard 5-1 gerry without drawing bizarrely shaped districts.

unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

Yes.

Still not super-easy because eastern Multnomah is not actually very Democratic, but definitely more geographically convenient.

[OBD]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla.

They do, but the point is to make a hard 5-1 gerry without drawing bizarrely shaped districts.

unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

Yes.

Still not super-easy because eastern Multnomah is not actually very Democratic, but definitely more geographically convenient.

I mean it's possible to get a Clinton+3 Eastern Oregon district if you take it into Laurelhurst, so getting a safer, neater district should be a cakewalk with the redder half of Eastern Oregon in a sink.

[Kamala's side hoe]

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

I thought so too, but Google Maps says it passes through Linn County for half a mile in between those two counties.

I wonder what the district(s) containing Bend and Pendleton in Blairite's map would look like. 

[OBD]

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

I thought so too, but Google Maps says it passes through Linn County for half a mile in between those two counties.

I wonder what the district(s) containing Bend and Pendleton in Blairite's map would look like. 

On DRA it looks like OR-242 barely avoids cutting through Linn. Not sure if this affects legality though as it is a seasonal road, and the DRA map could be off.

[OBD]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

Now who said you could only cross the Cascades twice?

[OBD]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

Now who said you could only cross the Cascades twice?

Touche. That works pretty nicely, actually.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The aim of an optimal Dem gerry, imo, in OR anyway, shouldn't be to make 5 seats safe. It should be to have all Cascades+parts of Southern Oregon to together produce R vote sink, and then make everything else at least a Clinton district.

[ottermax]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

Now who said you could only cross the Cascades twice?

I really like this map! I wonder if you could reduce the splitting of Portland by shifting some of the coastal district's precincts from Washington County to the McMinnville-based district. It might make the map appear less gerrymandered while still maintaining Democratic advantage.

I'm just really impressed with how much this looks fairly reasonable while still being very much a gerrymander.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I really like this map! I wonder if you could reduce the splitting of Portland by shifting some of the coastal district's precincts from Washington County to the McMinnville-based district. It might make the map appear less gerrymandered while still maintaining Democratic advantage.

I'm just really impressed with how much this looks fairly reasonable while still being very much a gerrymander.

Thank you. Unfortunately, it really needs those 90-10 precincts out of Portland to work. Trading that for Washington County just doesn't create strong enough districts.

[lfromnj]

I really like this map! I wonder if you could reduce the splitting of Portland by shifting some of the coastal district's precincts from Washington County to the McMinnville-based district. It might make the map appear less gerrymandered while still maintaining Democratic advantage.

I'm just really impressed with how much this looks fairly reasonable while still being very much a gerrymander.

Thank you. Unfortunately, it really needs those 90-10 precincts out of Portland to work. Trading that for Washington County just doesn't create strong enough districts.

Funnily enough there actually isn't a single precicnt in Portland where Clinton got 90.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is a theoretical R gerrymander of Oregon. Ends up as a 3-3 map, so it should be fair /s

Should be fairly self-explainatory



District 2 is Trump+15, R+8
District 4 is Trump+17, R+9
District 6 is Trump+13, R+7

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For fun, here is a theoretical R gerrymander of Oregon. Ends up as a 3-3 map, so it should be fair /s

In Oregon at least pure "proportional" would be 3D-2R-1S, given the state's lean towards Democrats.

[lfromnj]

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3727655,-121.5748073,149776m/data=!3m1!1e3

Hood River is west of the cascades as far as I can tell on Google Earth.

[Torie]

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3727655,-121.5748073,149776m/data=!3m1!1e3

Hood River is west of the cascades as far as I can tell on Google Earth.

[TJ in Oregon]

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3727655,-121.5748073,149776m/data=!3m1!1e3

Hood River is west of the cascades as far as I can tell on Google Earth.

Nah, Hood River is in the Cascades' Eastern foothills. The eponymous river that flows through it drains the eastern side of Mt. Hood. It is clearly east of their crest.

For the purpose of redistricting, I think it is still defensible to consider on either side as convenient, however, because it is culturally linked with Portland as much as it is with the rest of Eastern Oregon, and does not require driving over a mountain pass to cross the Cascades to Portland.

[Former President tack50]

Here's a fair state Senate map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef8f534b-30cd-4527-ab7b-da36c73b3549



Portland inset



Per DRA there are 6 Republican districts, 8 Democratic districts and 16! competitive districts

The median districts would be districts 5 and 3. District 5 is a Medford+Ashland district that is D+3 and Clinton+7. District 3 is the district centered around Bend, which is Clinton+3, R+1

[Sol]

Here's your Fair Oregon (link)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One weird obsession of mine that doesn't really matter: Sauvie Island should probably go with Clatsop and Washington Counties.

[It’s so Joever]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

[TJ in Oregon]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

[It’s so Joever]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

It balances out because my map of Georgia is an unintentional light D mander.