NJ Gov.: The fix is in for Chris Christie

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, folks. For those of you not familiar with New Jersey politics, things have always been somewhat congenial between the state GOP and state Democratic party. That's not because they both believe the same things on the same issues. No, it's generally because New Jersey politics revolves around the personal and corporate enrichment of those who participate. Republicans and Democrats can work together if they're both enjoying the spoils.

And for New Jersey Democrats, it appears they're quite content with the way Christie has been governing the state. Christie has done some good things for some urban towns, and the folks who run those towns are paying Christie back. In New Jersey politics, that's huge -- urban voters show up to vote because of powerful machines that spike turnout. Buono can't win because her own machine is working against her.

How bad is it for Buono? Take a look at this from PolitickerNJ, which suggests Essex County Exec Joe DiVincenzo, an incredibly popular figure in his Democratic circle, will flat out endorse Christie.

http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/two-schools-thought-essex

Mayor Booker isn't going to be activating his Newark machine for Buono. Elizabeth Mayor Bollwage says he won't be getting involved in the Buono campaign either:

http://www.politickernj.com/node/64493

And it's just as bad in Democrats' other urban stronghold, Hudson County. Christie has always had a solid relationship with Union City Mayor Stack, who called Christie the greatest governor in the state's history. Harrison Mayor Ray McDonough has flat out endorsed. We'll know what'll happen in Jersey City after the spring mayoral election is over.

As for the biggest Democratic power brokers in the state -- the ones who control donations? Buono isn't getting anything from them but the bare minimum. The amount she's raised so far wouldn't even qualify as enough to win a competitive State Senate race, and it's pretty clear she'll be leaving a lot of matching funds on the table. She's going to struggle getting her message out to voters on virtually every level.

For Barbara Buono, the fix is in. Her own party simply won't allow her to compete, little less win. November will be a bloodbath.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is similar to 2009, sure -- insiders abandoned Corzine pretty early. But at least Corzine had money.

I'd say this year is much more similar to 1985 than 2009.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?

It's not so much the Democrats you need to worry about -- Christie won't be winning assembly seats in Hudson County like Tom Kean did in 1985. It's the Republicans and independents that you need to worry about. A lot of GOPers vote Democratic in Districts 1 and 2. A lot of independents vote Democratic in 4, 7, 14, and 18. And recent polls say voters are split exactly down the middle on whether they want Democrats in charge of the NJ legislature of if they want Republicans.

Christie/Balles, Christie/Inverso, Christie/Allen, and Christie/Stahl are some pretty solid tickets, all considered.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

First off, trying to view the 2013 New Jersey election through the lens of a national election is a mistake. Historically, New Jersey Republicans have been pretty well insulated from national trends (except maybe 1995) and do well when Democrats are running the show in Washington. And let's be honest, Christie is probably one of the most anti-Washington Republicans in the country right now.

Anyway, back to the districts. District 2, as you said, is more Democratic than baseline. Still, I'm accurate in saying there are a lot of Republicans there who will turn out in droves: This is a Republican County on a local level. It's questionable how strong Democrats are going to be in Atlantic City. This is a district that got hit hard by Sandy.

Republicans picked up District 4 in 2009, the last time Christie was on the ballot. It's very independent heavy. So too is District 14, and while Greenstein is popular, so too was Inverso. Yeah, I admit, it's been a while since Inverso was on the ballot last, and Roma Bank probably doesn't make him more popular. Still, these are just the kind of districts that are going to go nuts over Christie this year. I wouldn't want to be running downballot there as a Democrat this year (or, coincidentally, as a Republican next year).

I don't think the GOP will actually win the 18th, because I don't think a Republican can win anything but a sneak attack there. If Stahl wins, it'll be a surprise to everyone.

If I'm doling out money for the Senate GOP, the bulk goes to win 2. Inverso gets whatever he negotiated when Kean Jr. got him to run in 14. I'd pay for a bunch of polling in District 1, and I'd try to get Christie to visit as much as possible. Ultimately only the Assembly seats there look vulnerable. I'd make an arrangement to have a full-time intern out on District 18, because I think this is the exact kind of area the GOP needs to improve its performance to be more credible statewide in 10 years to combat the inevitable decline elsewhere. Wouldn't hurt getting more people operatives with the territory.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQ-SuCqJPA&feature=youtu.be

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

THE GOVERNOR.