South African Municipal Elections 2011

[redcommander]

I noticed no one has made a thread on this yet, I think the DA has an excellent shot at winning significantly more support than they did in 2009.

http://www.leadershiponline.co.za/articles/politics/1221-election-watch-2011

[redcommander]

I think a more interesting outcome to watch for from the elections will be the performance of COPE. If it performs well, especially in the Jo'burg metro area, it might be on the way to some sort of permanence as a credible alternative to the ANC.

If anything I think they will probably loss support unfortunately. COPE has been plagued by infighting the last two years, and the Shilowa faction of the party is apparently not contesting the elections.
http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Shilowa-faction-wont-contest-elections-20110329-2

I think the Joburg area will be especially interesting considering that the DA put up a very appealing to the Black voters they need in order to take control of the city. The party wants and needs to do well in Gauteng in May if they want an actual shot of challenging the ANC for the Presidency come 2014.

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=137278

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2011-03-25-is-the-da-new-black/

[redcommander]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

Correct, but I believe the ANC would have the first try at forming a government if they won no majority in 2014.

[redcommander]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

Correct, but I believe the ANC would have the first try at forming a government if they won no majority in 2014.

That probably won't happen right? I mean, the ANC getting less than half the vote in 2014?  Is public opinion really that much against them, even with no viable alternative (at least until the DA gets its act together and puts a few more blacks in its shadow cabinet.  Then it can be taken seriously)

There could be a bigger split within the ANC than the one that caused COPE to form that could lead to them being vulnerable in 2014, but it's probably unlikely they can lose until 2019.

[redcommander]

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Local-Elections-2011/Zille-Zuma-both-campaigning-in-Port-Elizabeth-20110509

[redcommander]

LOL, I look at the top of the page in that link and I see "Julius Malema sparks new race row".

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, this gem from Motlanthe: "The ANC is non-racial"

Yes it's quite sad how racially focused the ANC is. Port Elizabeth is likely to be lost by them, which would be a major blow to the party. The party only earned 49% of the vote there at the presidential election in 2009. I'm surprised to see Johannesburg is also a battleground, since the ANC isn't quite as unpopular there as in Tshwane/Pretoria.

[redcommander]

http://www.news24.com/maps?year=2006

News 24 has a nice map up showing results from the last municipal elections. It's interesting that Pretoria is so close to being lost from the ANC. The opposition only needs a swing of about 7% for a coalition to take control of the city. The PR system seems to have given slightly more seats to the ANC than they won in the popular vote.

[redcommander]

The vote tally so far is

ANC
56.38 %
DA
32.16 %
COPE
3.27 %

If those numbers hold, that would be an amazing result for the opposition.

[redcommander]

LOL at the ANC being only at 25% in the Western Cape. I was hoping there would be a live streaming of the SABC's coverage online or one of the other television stations but there doesn't seem to be one.

[redcommander]

Any nation-wide summary?

ANC
58.61 %
DA
28.20 %
COPE
3.19 %

COUNCIL TALLY
ANC
33
DA
5
ICOSA
1

[redcommander]

Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)

ANC 47.10%
DA 45.78%
COPE 4.72%

If the DA is serious about defeating the ANC come 2014, they need to win here, or at least get a coalition together like they did in Cape Town in 2006. Either that, or they would have to make up for a loss here in Johannesburg, Pretoria, or Durban.

[redcommander]

Are you South African, Redcommander?  Or just unusually interested in South African politics?

Not South African, just was interested in the election.

[redcommander]

So would somebody mind giving perhaps a somewhat deeper primer (than what's available from Wiki) on South African politics?  What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).  The DA is the non-corrupt party positioned vaguely to the right of the ANC and receives support from non-blacks.  Other parties are ethnically or regionally based and are somewhat irrelevant.  South Africa also seems to be suffering from a case of sinistrisme.  Correct?

Yes, although the DA has shown growth this election with black voters going from 2% to 6%, which is still dismal, but a sign that at least the black majority is starting to be open to voting for them. I'm not sure about the sinistrisme part though. The most important result from the election is that the ANC no longer has a stronghold over urban areas of the country. The DA won Cape Town with a larger majority with about 60% support, and held the ANC under 60% in Johannesburg and Pretoria. The ANC almost lost Port Elizabeth, but too many COPE supporters went back to voting for the ANC this election for an opposition coalition to materialize. In Bloemfontein, the ANC is also now below 70%. This sets the DA up for an excellent chance of winning a plurality of voters in most metros in 2014, and gaining control by 2016. The smaller swings towards the opposition outside of the Three Capes and Gauteng probably won't allow them to take control of national government by 2014 though barring a major split in ANC support, but by 2019, the country should be in for a two party horserace.

[redcommander]

These ward results are really interesting: http://maps.elections.org.za/lgeresults/

Who devises the ward districts in the country? Does an independent commission make the boundaries, or do the provincial governments?

[redcommander]

Like ANC DA is not a particularly ideological party. It is the formal heir of the old anti-apartheid Democratic Party, which is well reflected in the top leadership, but is less obvious at the rank-and-file level. These days it is, mostly, a "non-black" party. In some parts of the country, that means "white" (at the last national elections they managed to put up a blonde woman as their top candidate in Mpumalanga, of all places), but in recent years they managed to consolidate the Colored vote as well (the process strengthened by the recent merger w/ the Independent Democrats). As the governing, and now the dominant, party in Western Cape, their main point is "efficient delivery of services".  To a large extent it is similar to ANC as a "big tent party" - I wouldn't search for a party-wide ideology there.

The only other parties of any consequence at this point are COPE (a one-time threatening splinter from the ANC, fast on its way to irrelevance, it seems; IFP - the Zulu-based force, which used to be the main ANC rival in Zululand, but which seems to be increasingly losing its point, especially now that  both ANC and the country are led by a Zulu; and NFP, which I've described above.

Well, the DA is something of a broadly social-liberal party, if there has to be a common strain found. They supported the Supreme Court's decision legalizing same-sex marriage, for example (while the ANC denounced it). And within the non-black community they are opposed to VF+, which is the socially conservative and racist white party.

The DA I would consider economically conservative, although besides the VF+ like you said and the ACDP, there aren't really any broadly conservative political parties in South Africa.