GALLUP: Democratic Enthusaism down sharply from 2004, 2008

[WhyteRain]

It's worse than you know:

Partisan advantage -- Poll of 15,000 Americans taken on the last day of each month

June 30 poll for each year, Party advantage in self-identified members.

2004:  D +2.0
2005:  D +0.8
2006:  D +3.4
2007:  D +4.1
2008:  D +9.5
2009:  D +6.7
2010:  D +2.4
2011:  D +0.3
2012:  R +1.4

Don't get fooled by polls that reflect D +11 fantasy world populations.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[WhyteRain]

... I'd say too much stock is place in 'enthusiasm' studies. Obviously, the GOP are more enthusiastic compared to 2008... how could they not be? the drop in Dem enthusiasm isn't great but that doesn't mean they suddenly like Romney and won't turn out for Obama in the end.

I tend to agree, but let's not overlook one thing:  The effect of the enthusiasm of partisans on the feelings of moderate Independents -- the 20% or so of people "in the middle".  When moderate Independents see excitement on the Left or Right, they'll tend to swing that way.  Like the moon affects the tides.

[WhyteRain]

... I'd say too much stock is place in 'enthusiasm' studies. Obviously, the GOP are more enthusiastic compared to 2008... how could they not be? the drop in Dem enthusiasm isn't great but that doesn't mean they suddenly like Romney and won't turn out for Obama in the end.

I tend to agree, but let's not overlook one thing:  The effect of the enthusiasm of partisans on the feelings of moderate Independents -- the 20% or so of people "in the middle".  When moderate Independents see excitement on the Left or Right, they'll tend to swing that way.  Like the moon affects the tides.

However, 2004 speaks against that. The enthusiasm was clearly behind Kerry, but that didn't materialise at the polls, and Bush actually saw his support among Independents increase, albeit within the margin of error.

I generally hold to the maxim that electoral rules exist until they don't any more...

That's a good point, but wasn't the "excitement" on the Left about 2004 more negative than positive -- in the sense of not wanting to elect this mook with the rich wife but more wanting to get revenge for what they viewed as a "stolen" election in 2000?

[WhyteRain]

... I'd say too much stock is place in 'enthusiasm' studies. Obviously, the GOP are more enthusiastic compared to 2008... how could they not be? the drop in Dem enthusiasm isn't great but that doesn't mean they suddenly like Romney and won't turn out for Obama in the end.

I tend to agree, but let's not overlook one thing:  The effect of the enthusiasm of partisans on the feelings of moderate Independents -- the 20% or so of people "in the middle".  When moderate Independents see excitement on the Left or Right, they'll tend to swing that way.  Like the moon affects the tides.

However, 2004 speaks against that. The enthusiasm was clearly behind Kerry, but that didn't materialise at the polls, and Bush actually saw his support among Independents increase, albeit within the margin of error.

I generally hold to the maxim that electoral rules exist until they don't any more...

That's a good point, but wasn't the "excitement" on the Left about 2004 more negative than positive -- in the sense of not wanting to elect this mook with the rich wife but more wanting to get revenge for what they viewed as a "stolen" election in 2000?

To be fair, it's not like the GOP electorate this year is pro-Romney. It's very clearly primarily an anti-Obama vote... one of the many similarities between 2004 and 2012 so far. Reading the polling from a few weeks ago, the GOP is less pro-Romney than the Dems were pro-Kerry.

Another good point -- you're on a roll!  :-)