Assuming Kaine was still the Democratic VP nominee, none, but Gilmore and Kasich would have come within a point, and Rubio within 3. Without Kaine, Gilmore wins it by 5, Kasich wins it by 3, Rubio by 0.5. More or less. 2020 will be harder, but Trump, as an anti-establishment outsider, is a bad fit. By 2028, it should be D+6 or so. The only way Republicans can get it back is by heavily gutting the size of the federal government and hoping all those workers leave the state. I hate admitting it, but I don't think anything can be done. At least Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa are moving the other way.
