Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest?

[Likely Voter]

If conservatives came out for McCain and Romney despite insisting they wouldn't, they will for Jeb too.

That said, I don't think Jeb is the strongest. I see Kasich and possibly Walker/Paul as stronger.

They DIDNT come out for Romney and McCain. Both got fewer votes than GW Bush when Bush ran a "Base Campaign" in 2004.

This is simply not factual. Romney actually got more 'conservative' and more white evangelical (base) votes than Bush in 04.

Conservatives:   % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       34 / 84
McCain 08   34 / 78
Romney 12   35 / 82

White Evangelical Christians: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       23 / 78
McCain 08   26 / 74
Romney 12   26 / 78

Romney was able to get more white evangelicals than Bush even though the number of white voters overall shrunk 6%. The biggest difference between Bush in 04 and McCain and Romney was Bush's appeal to non-GOP base voters and moderates, especially non-whites.

Non-whites: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       22 / 27
McCain 08   26 / 18
Romney 12   28 / 18



That is why people thing Jeb Bush can win.

[Likely Voter]

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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll


I'm sorry but conservative media have been lying about how Romney and McCain lost because conservatives "didn't show up." The GOP party leaders know this, it is all in the 'autopsy' they released, talking about how they need to expand the appeal of the party beyond the base. 

[Likely Voter]

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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll


I'm sorry but conservative media have been lying about how Romney and McCain lost because conservatives "didn't show up." The GOP party leaders know this, it is all in the 'autopsy' they released, talking about how they need to expand the appeal of the party beyond the base. 

Only two of your links have any decent data.

well 32% of the electorate in 2008 was GOP and 37% was GOP in 2004. So it would seem that I am right. A moderate GOP candidate results in lower GOP turnout.

As has been noted before ad nauseum, party ID changes. Since 2004 polls have shown many people switching from identifying with GOP to Independent (some attribute this to growth of Tea Party). On the other hand, polls show political philosophy (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative) more steady over time. Simply put, party ID is not a 'demographic' like white evangelical.

You are grasping at straws, look at the full picture. Or live in ignorance. It is your choice.