Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

The Liberals are having an internal warfare out in the open about the agricultural negotiations. The more urban, climate-oriented wing want a fairly high carbon tariff on the Danish agricultural protection in order to ensure significant reductions of the Danish emissions, while the more agricultural wing of the party prefer a tariff in the supermarket, so that Danish products are not made more expensive compared to foreign products. Ellemann mostly belong to the former wing, and in a government with the Social Democrats and the Moderates, there should be little doubt that the former version will primarily be what is carried out. Maybe Ellemann can use the pressure from the agricultural wing to extract some more subsidies for the agricultural sector to carry out the transformation.

The parties against the government's Quran Law have announced that they will not enter into so-called clearing agreements on the day of the voting, so as many MPs as possible will have to show up. There probably are several MPs in the government parties against the changes, but no one has indicated a real willingness to vote against the free speech reduction. But in this way most of them are at least forced to physically vote against their conscience.

The Liberals, perhaps somewhat due to feeling pressured by Løkke's big presence, have proposed creating a Minister of European affairs, and thereby cutting that subject out of Løkke's portfolio. The party thinks the time is right with the Danish EU presidency coming up in 2025. Løkke has so far rejected the idea.

[Diouf]

Some of the main stories from the traditional debate at the opening of the official parliamentary season:

- SPP and Red-Green Alliance attacking the Social Democrats for the tax cuts, which are included in the current negotiations about a tax reform

- Denmark Democrats questioning the Liberal speakers on their position in relation to carbon tariffs on agriculture

- Attacks on Løkke by several opposition parties in relation to a case, where he is accused of giving investment fund Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners an unfair advantage in relation to winning a windmill project.

- Attacks on Alex Vanopslagh by Liberals, Social Democrats and DPP after he in a podcast aired the idea about legalizing cocaine and similar drugs via pharmacies.

- Attacks on the PM by Morten Messerschmidt in regards to the loosenings of the immigration policies

- An increasingly nationalistic rhetoric by the Greenlandic Siumut MP Markus Olsen, who is now allowed to talk in Greenlandic in parliament

https://twitter.com/folketinget/status/1709876526664015953

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/faa-de-vigtigste-pointer-fra-analytikerne-naar-politikerne-holder-maratondebat-i-folketinget

[Diouf]

Government agrees new simplificed cash benefit system; tightens the screw on foreigners

The government has concluded three deals to change the cash benefit system. Instead of one united agreement, the reform was split up into three parts because none of the other parties could agree to all key changes. The cash benefits are the state unemployment benefits, and are mostly for people who haven't been close to the labour market for some time. Those regularly in work are usually members of unemployment insurance fund, which, along with significant state funding, sponsor unemployment benefits for up to two years on a fairly high level. So the cash benefits are for when those funds run out or if you aren't a member of an insurance fund or not close to the labour market.

The main part of the changes were agreed with SPP, Conservatives and Social Liberals. The deal simplifies the cash benefit system, so there are now only three different levels of cash benefits. The maximum level is for those over 30 years, and then there are two fairly low levels, one for people under 30 and one for people who haven't haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years. The maximum level will at most be around 85% of the minimum wage for those with short educations, the two other levels are a bit above half of that. The system keeps add-ons for those with children, particularly lone parents, while removing most of the other different criteria and add-ons. The new system makes it easier to work for a few hours a week without getting that amount withdrawn from your cash benefits, to incentivize people to work.

The government then concluded two additional deals.

With Denmark Democrats and DPP, the government agreed a deal to introduce a 37-hour a week work demand of those who haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years. The local municipalities will decide which tasks those people will have to do, but it must be tasks above the current public service level. E.g. additional cleaning in institutions or publicly-owned spaces, removing garbage from road and nature areas, doing small repairs or removing weed. This change is expected to apply to around 22 000 persons.

With Denmark Democrats, Liberal Alliance and Conservatives, the government agreed to place the same demands on immigrants entering Denmark before 2008 as those entering after. Because the rules were tightened back then, they only applied for new residents. But now those who were already in Denmark at that time will now face the same demands. This means if they haven't haven't worked a full-time job for at least 2,5 out of the last ten years and lived in Denmark for at least 9 out of the last 10 years, they will receive the lowest cash benefit level and face the new 37-hour-a-week work demand. This change means that about 10 000 persons will see their status in the cash benefit system changed.

[Diouf]

Some news in regards to the EP elections.

Ex-DPP leadership candidate and prominent MP and spokesperson Martin Henriksen will become the lead candidate for the New Right. A quite strong candidate for a party in quite some difficulty.

Liberal Alliance and Conservatives have concluded an electoral alliance. So the Liberals are not a part of this deal. The Conservatives and Liberals have been in an electoral alliance in all previous EP elections, so a quite significant shift. This could point towards the Liberals joining a full-fledged EU-enthusiastic Renew electoral alliance with Social Liberals and Moderates.
The Liberal Alliance haven't said anything about a potential group yet. Likely EPP or Renew.

[Diouf]

Jakob Ellemann resigns as Liberal leader and MP with immediate effect. Stephanie Lose will deputize as party leader with relation to the internal party organization, while Troels Lund Poulsen will deputize in the political roles as Minister of Economy and in the governmental committees. The party will elect a new leader at party Congress on 18-19 November.

[Diouf]

Ellemann said that him and his unpopularity was overshadowing the Liberals' results in the government, and was making it harder for the party to move forward. He says the decision to enter the centrist government was and is right for the party and for Denmark. His spot in parliament will be taken by Heidi Bank, the real estate agent, who was a MP from 2019-2022, but failed to get re-elected in 2022.

It seems like the grand old men in the party have already decided on Troels Lund Poulsen as the replacement. Former PM and Liberal Leader, Anders Fogh, ex-Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen, ex-Herning mayor Lars Krarup, the Speaker of parliament, Søren Gade and the Liberal group leader (chief whip-ish) Lars Christian Lilleholt have all come out in support for Lund Poulsen as new leader and Lose as continued deputy leader.

But it's not like there are that many other obvious options. Gade himself is very popular, but seems very content as Speaker of Parliament and is not interested in the job. Lose also seems like she is happy where she is as leader of the Southern Denmark region and deputy leader, so doesn't seem like joining the contest either. The last possible option would be Sophie Løhde, the current Minister of Health and the Interior. She has a lot of experience as a MP since 2007, Minister of Health 2015-2016, Minister of Public Innovation 2016-2019, and then now Minister of Health and the Interior. She is a bit like Lars Løkke in that she knows the Danish welfare system inside out, the hospitals, the municipalities, and seem to have some good and coherent ideas of what to do. However, her popularity hasn't been very high in the polls, and with her coming from Northern Zealand, there might be a chance that she, like Ellemann, is not an authentic enough Liberal compared to the farmer Lund Poulsen.

https://twitter.com/skov_chr/status/1716415748568998040

[Mike88]

Do you think that Venstre has any chance of regaining the position they once had in Danish politics, or are they doomed to be just a junior coalition partner?

[Diouf]

Do you think that Venstre has any chance of regaining the position they once had in Danish politics, or are they doomed to be just a junior coalition partner?

Well, I think the general tendencies in Western PR democracis of fragmentation and increased competition means that it's hard to see them near the heights of more than 30% in 2001. But it was only in 2019 that they received 23 %. They are extraordinarly pressured right now as two of their former most popular figures, Lars Løkke and Inger Støjberg, now each leads parties which cover a part of the ground formerly covered by the Liberals. If these two manage to establish their parties as lasting institutions, then it will be difficult to grow to even the 2019 heights again.

[Diouf]

Esben Schjørring from Altinget has written the below analysis, where he compares the story of Ellemann to a tragedy like Oedipus.

He argues that Ellemann had the right idea about how to position the party in two key moments, but both times backed down due to protests in his own party, which ended up with the party in bad positions. The first was about cooperation with the Social Liberals, where he seemed to open up for a closer cooperation, before then smacking the door hard in their heads after the other Blue parties and the conservtive wing in his party attacked it. Only now to see centrism and cross-bloc cooperation becoming the new the center of gravity in Danish politics. When the Mink slaughters started, he was very willing to support Frederiksen with fast track laws and quick killings of the Mink, but then turned against it due to opposition in his party, and ended up running as leader of an Anti-Frederiksen bloc. Only to see Frederiksen end up as a very popular election winner, and then having to cooperate with her in government.
He also says the decision to move to the Ministry of Economy after such a short sting back from his sick leave lost him the final bit of trust among voters and other politicians.

So Schjørring's conclusion is that Ellemann should have followed his heart in moving the party towards the centrist position as very green, very pro-EU, pro foreign labour, pro economic reforms and with less focus on immigration policy. It's probably right that it would have looked better if the party and him had moved confidently in that direction instead of sort of by accident landing there in a centrist government. But it's just a bit hard to imagine that he could have moved the party a lot without the internal opposition becoming too big, and the conservative wing and droves of voters leaving anyway. But yeah, maybe the voter loss to the Moderates and partly Liberal Alliance could have been avoided to a bigger degree.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/274722-analyse

[Diouf]

Troels Lund Poulsen has announced his candidacy as leader for the Liberals. Stephanie Lose supports him and intends to continue as deputy leader, but this time from a national position (i.e. entering government instead of continuing as leader of the Southern Denmark region). The whole parliamentary group has announced their support for this ticket, so it looks like it will be a coronation. The only exception will be if someone with a local/regional background or ex-MP wants to run, most likely as a protest against the government participation, but so far no one has signalled this intention.

Lund Poulsen said today that if he is to be a candidate for PM, then the party needs to be bigger than what it is in current polls. He maintains the line of keeping an open mind about who to participate with after the next election.

Lund Poulsen has played an important role in the party for long, but hasn't been a very prominent or popular politician. He only received 4 584 personal votes in the 2022 election, only 4 of the party's 23 MPs were elected with fever personal votes.

[ingemann]

Do you think that Venstre has any chance of regaining the position they once had in Danish politics, or are they doomed to be just a junior coalition partner?

Yes, one of the reason why the old Danish parties (except the social liberals) tend to be so stable is because they have strong local representation, because the municipalities have significant autonomy and power. So I expect at some point Venstre will become bigger again.

I think the Conservative is in a worse position because they try to be large Conservative Party for the broad middle class, while also being the party of big business and the upper class. Even if Pape is replaced Conservative will still be unable to unite those two, and giving up the upper class and big business will mean a collapse in their funding, and they won’t be able to survive without it.

Liberal Alliance is the other potential big party on the right, but they have far too volatile voters with little party loyalty, they can go from 15% to 1,9% of the vote if they have a bad election.

So I expect Venstre to someday do better again. Of course right now they have to deal with the Løkke and Støjberg, as long as they’re active Venstre will be lucky to get 15% of the vote.

[ingemann]

Esben Schjørring from Altinget has written the below analysis, where he compares the story of Ellemann to a tragedy like Oedipus.

He argues that Ellemann had the right idea about how to position the party in two key moments, but both times backed down due to protests in his own party, which ended up with the party in bad positions. The first was about cooperation with the Social Liberals, where he seemed to open up for a closer cooperation, before then smacking the door hard in their heads after the other Blue parties and the conservtive wing in his party attacked it. Only now to see centrism and cross-bloc cooperation becoming the new the center of gravity in Danish politics. When the Mink slaughters started, he was very willing to support Frederiksen with fast track laws and quick killings of the Mink, but then turned against it due to opposition in his party, and ended up running as leader of an Anti-Frederiksen bloc. Only to see Frederiksen end up as a very popular election winner, and then having to cooperate with her in government.
He also says the decision to move to the Ministry of Economy after such a short sting back from his sick leave lost him the final bit of trust among voters and other politicians.

So Schjørring's conclusion is that Ellemann should have followed his heart in moving the party towards the centrist position as very green, very pro-EU, pro foreign labour, pro economic reforms and with less focus on immigration policy. It's probably right that it would have looked better if the party and him had moved confidently in that direction instead of sort of by accident landing there in a centrist government. But it's just a bit hard to imagine that he could have moved the party a lot without the internal opposition becoming too big, and the conservative wing and droves of voters leaving anyway. But yeah, maybe the voter loss to the Moderates and partly Liberal Alliance could have been avoided to a bigger degree.

https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/274722-analyse

I think Venstre was better off being pulled kicking and screaming to that position to the extent they have moved there. There’s next to no voter there and there’s a lot of party fighting over it. I think some anonymous Venstre MP said it best; if Venstre becomes the Social Liberals, they will also have the size of the Social Liberals. The problem is that pundits and the media think there’s a lot of votes in  that combination of policies, because everyone they know vote based on that or stay silent.

[Diouf]

In other news, the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service has been jailed and charged with leaking highly classified information. I guess there could be some political effects of such a scandal.

This one keeps developing. Today it was made public that the police also wants to charge MP, and former Minister of Defence, Claus Hjort Frederiksen with the same crime. It requires parliament to lift his immunity.

Today, the state prosecution announced that it will charge Hjort Frederiksen with this crime. The new Minister of Justice will start negotiations with the parties in parliament to get majority to lift Hjort Frederiksen's parliamentary immunity. That might be difficult for him to achieve if they insist on not making the charges against him available for parliament. So far the Liberals, Liberal Alliance, DPP, New Right, Red-Green Alliance and Independent Greens have all said that can't vote to lift the immunity if parliament is not presented with the charges.

After a fair bit of hesitation, the Conservatives also opted not to lift his immunity. The 8 ex-DPP + ex-Conservative MPs also didn't want to lift Hjort's immunity. So therefore, there is a majority against lifting Hjort's immunity without parliament being informed about the charges. The new Justice Minister Mattias Tesfaye didn't want to follow the majority's demand to inform parliament about the charges, so he has instead chosen to tell the state prosecution that they can't prosecute Hjort. However, Hjort has announced that he isn't running again, so he could be prosecuted once he's out of parliament.
Independent Greens ending up backing lifting immunity.

It is not publicly known what exactly Hjort is charged with, but apparently it's about a agreement Denmark has with the US which allows the Americans to tap tele + internet traffic (although supposed to filter out Danes, but apparently sometimes some got through the net). It was already revealed in 2014 by Snowden. Then in August 2020, the case exploded again when the Intelligence Inspection Authority came out with tough criticism of the Defence Intelligence Service for withholding information to it, and that it information about Danish citizens have been transferred illegally. This caused Minister of Defence Trine Bramsen to suspend the leader of the Defence Intelligence Service plus other high-ranking officials there. In two newspapers afterwards, Hjort Frederiksen confirmed that the criticism was about the cabels from the 2014 story, and criticized Bramsen for letting the Inspection Authority release its criticisms + for suspending high-ranking officials.

The suspended officials were intensely surveilled, and in early December 2021, the suspended leader + other officials were imprisoned and charged with leaking highly classified information. In February 2022, he was released but is still charged. It remains unclear who he is accused of leaking to.

An independent commission was set down in August 2020 to investigate the Inspection Authority's claims, and later in December 2021 that commission concluded that the Defence Authority hadn't done anything worthy of criticism, and thereby swept away the Inspection Authority's criticism.

In interviews around this time Hjort again confirmed, as everybody knew, that the cases were all about this cabel tapping. And Hjort was charged with leaking classified information, presumably for those interviews.

Claus Hjort was charged after the election of 2022, when his parliamentary immunity was gone after he retired from politics.
However, today the public prosecutor decided to stop the cases against both Hjort and Findsen after the Supreme Court had ruled that they could not run the cases behind closed doors. The Court argued that since the classified information the prosecutor wanted to charge them with leaking was already public knowledge, there were no need for closed doors. And then the public prosecutor didn't want to go on with the case.

A big humiliation for the prosecutor's office, who have now called for parliament to change the legislation.

Claus Hjort himself says it's the permanent secretary in the Prime Ministry, Barbara Bertelsen, who has personally led the charge against him. The government has had to concede that the mandate for the investigative commission into this proces will now also include whether there has been "undue interference" in relation to the decision to charge the two in the first case. DPP has already called for an urgent parliamentary question time with the Prime Minister, and I expect that call will be supported be enough parties to make it a reality.

[Diouf]

No other candidates have decided to run for Liberal leader, so Troels Lund Poulsen will be coronated at the party congress on 18 and 19 November. Immediatedly afterwards we will see a cabinet reshuffle, where Stephanie Lose enters government. So Lund Poulsen's first job will be how this is handled.

There is a bit of a media consensus that the Ministry of Defence is a hard ministry to be in charge of, because there is so much new business that needs to be carried out in charge of an organization which have been error and scandal prone. But there is also the chance to be responsible and important figure, which can proclaim new donations to Ukraine. So the question is whether Lund Poulsen wants to stay in the Ministry of Defence, whether Lose or some other Liberal will take over that position, or whether there could be a bigger reshuffle where the Liberals trade the Ministry of Defence to one of the two other parties in return for some other ministry (could be with the Social Democrats for the Ministry of Business e.g.). I think Lund Poulsen himself will be most at home as Minister of Economy, but he might also want to change his profile away from being an "excel" politician.

[Diouf]

YouGov shows a really strong Mortenmentum in their opinion polls, but the trend is much less visible with all the other pollsters. In the most recent YouGov poll DPP is even bigger than the Liberals. In the recent elections, YouGov has been the least precise of the pollsters, and often overrepresenting those parties which have a high share of voters with short or no education. But they do also sometimes seem to detect a movement in the electorate before some other pollsters. So I'm not too confident that they are right here yet, but an interesting aspect to follow.

https://twitter.com/Annamidtgaard/status/1722874114354913506

[Flyersfan232]

question how likely will a future right bloc pm be from the biggest party and not ventre?

[Diouf]

question how likely will a future right bloc pm be from the biggest party and not ventre?

Well, right now if there's to be a Blue Bloc close to a majority, then they would likely need the Moderates. So there should be a big chance of Lars Løkke using that leverage to make himself PM, even if the most right-wing parties would hate it.

[Diouf]

Moderate MP excluded due to relationship with young girl

The 28-year old Moderate MP Mike Villa Fonseca has been forced to leave the party after his relationship with a 15-year old girl was revealed. He will go on leave now, but has said he will return to parliament as an independent. When he does so, the government parties will be down to 87 seats. They still have the support of three North Atlantic MPs, so the life of the government is not in danger, but we are getting closer to that point. The Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard has said the party would be ready to enter government if their seats are wanted, so if we see further seat decreases for the government, it could be an option they need to consider.

Also in most of the domestic Danish issues where the North Atlantic MPs usually don't participate, the government will now need some support from at least another party or independent

[Flyersfan232]

Moderate MP excluded due to relationship with young girl

The 28-year old Moderate MP Mike Villa Fonseca has been forced to leave the party after his relationship with a 15-year old girl was revealed. He will go on leave now, but has said he will return to parliament as an independent. When he does so, the government parties will be down to 87 seats. They still have the support of three North Atlantic MPs, so the life of the government is not in danger, but we are getting closer to that point. The Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard has said the party would be ready to enter government if their seats are wanted, so if we see further seat decreases for the government, it could be an option they need to consider.

Also in most of the domestic Danish issues where the North Atlantic MPs usually don't participate, the government will now need some support from at least another party or independent

how likely is a government collapse?

[Diouf]

Government agrees deal with independent

The government has made a deal with the ex-Moderate independent MP Jon Stephensen, so that he is officially part of the governing majority. He has pledged to support the government, and will then be treated like a government MP. This means he will get committee spots e.g. as if he was a member of the governing parties. It hasn't been announced yet which committee spots. In the first interview he gave with BT, he said that he could go against the government in specific cases, but that would be hypothetical, i.e. not very likely. He straight out said he will support the government in two controversial votes, the Quran law and how the investigation of the intelligence scandal will look. Then in a later interview with DR, it sounded a bit more likely that the could go against the government in some cases. He mentions the carbon tax on agriculture as one example, where he could go against the government if it wasn¨t being ambitious enough. He states that this is an area where he expects to get some influence.

This means the parliamentary picture on Danish issues now looks like this:

Governing majority - 88 seats
Social Democrats 50 seats
Liberals 23
Moderates 14
Jon Stephensen

Sympathetic towards the government (probably won't make it fall, but won't support it in all cases) - 8 seats
Social Liberals 7
Mike Villa Fonseca

Opposition - 79
SPP 15
Denmark Democrats 14
Liberal Alliance 14
Conservatives 10
Red-Green Alliance 9
DPP 7
Alternative 5
New Right 3
Lars Boje Mathiesen
Theresa Scavenius


When looking in terms of the whole parliament, then the four North Atlantic seats support the government. The two Faroese MPs are quite safe with their parties being sister parties to Social Democrats and Liberals. The Greenlandic Siumut are probably also safe as a Social Democratic sister party, but they seem to have taken a more nationalistic turn, so if some big case regarding Greenland emerges, there might be some tentions. Finally IA is officially a sister party of SPP, but so far the mentions from Aaja Chemnitz has been that she supports the government, despite SPP being in opposition.

[Mike88]

Do you see this Parliament last until 2026? It looks shaky.

[Diouf]

Do you see this Parliament last until 2026? It looks shaky.

Well, both the Social Democrats and Liberals currently look set for heavy losses at an election, so that should be a pretty big incentive for both of them not to go the polls early. And for the Moderates, their raison d'être is a centrist government, so they have to show that this is a stable option. So I would think they would all three do their utmost to keep things rolling.

Things could fall apart enough for it to be difficult to carry on. If there are further bad eggs in the Moderate backbenches, or if the Liberals see defections over the agricultural carbon tax, then things might get to an untenable place. But I don't think we are there yet.

[Diouf]

Reshuffle - Troels Lund changes half the Liberal ministers

The newly elected Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen today carried out a reshuffle of the Liberal ministers in the government. He decided to stay as Minister of Defence, which made it very obvious that the Liberal deputy leader Stephanie Lose will enter government as Minister of Economy.

Of the seven Liberal ministers, four of them were almost completely unknown when appointed. And all of them have basically stayed unknown in the first year of the government. Therefore Lund Poulsen also decided to change in two of these positions. Marie Bjerre is replaced as Minister for Digitalization and Equality by entrepreneur Mia Wagner. She is a lawyer and was partner and CEO in a legal firm before becoming CEO of Freeway Holding as well as founding Nordic Female Founders, which helps female entrepreneurs. However, she is probably mostly known as an investor in the Danish version of the Dragons' Den programmes. Bjerre was a quite urban, feminist voice in the party, and Wagner is probably that to an even larger degree.

He also made a change in the rag rug ministry, the Ministry for Cities and Rural Areas, for Church, and for Nordic Cooperation. Louise Shack Elholm is replaced by Morten Dahlin, who has until now been political spokesperson for the party. The 34-year old Dahlin is considered one of the biggest Liberal talents.

Elholm has been very anonymous, so I'm not suprised to see her go. I'm more surprised to see Bjerre go. To me it seems like she has actually tried to do some things from a tiny, unimportant ministry, and the 37-year old is a fairly talented politician who had great personal elections in both 2019 and 2022. I would have thought she would at least now then become political spokesperson, but that role has instead gone to the less charismatic Torsten Schack Pedersen.


https://twitter.com/Kvolbk/status/1727716189013426377

[Diouf]

Historically broad agreement on 2024 Budget

The government has made an agreement about the 2024 Budget with almost all parties in parliament. SPP, Denmark Democrats, Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, Social Liberals, DPP, Alternative and New Right are all part of the deal, with only Red-Green Alliance not a part of the deal. Their leader Pelle Dragsted argues the budget does not include enough spending on hospitals, elderly care and kindergartens.

It is not rare to see these broad political agreements in Denmark, but it rarely happens when agreeing a budget. In the recent decades of bloc politics, a deal was mostly just made with the parliamentary support parties, with the exception or two of making the deal with one or two of the larger opposition parties instead. The government, and particularly the Moderates, praises itself for being able to unite parliament in this way and secure such a broad agreement, but several of the parties in the deal have another view. Liberal Alliance's leader, Alex Vanopslagh, criticizes the budget as indifferent, unambitious, and lacking direction for Denmark. The budget is likened to porridge, neither good nor bad, allowing each party to add a few insignificant elements they find important. Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen and SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr echo this sentiment, stating that the budget lacks significant reforms and crucial decisions. They argue that the government's foundational narrative of making tough choices is no longer valid. Olsen Dyhr emphasizes the absence of necessary and substantial decisions on issues such as the climate crisis, nature crisis, and youth well-being.

The budget includes some green aspects: An emergency package for improving water quality and withdrawing low-lying soils, a postponement of reduced deductions for electric vehicles as well as increased funding for district heating roll-out and circular economy initiatives. The budget adds money for elderly care, more research in dementia and brain damage as well as an independent patient advisory function, so patients can be neutrally advised on their health care rights which is mostly relevant when patients have the right to private health care if public hospitals have too long waiting lists. Finally, the deal adds funds for Thin Blue Line, village renewal, added funds for high schools and emergency medical cars in rural areas and increased deductions when hiring people to provide services in people's houses (cleaning, gardening etc.). To illustrate the 'easyness' of making the deal, there are no cost-cutting measures in the deal, so the budget is financed via existing funds.

Lars Boje Mathiesen, the independent MP and (short term) ex-New Right leader, used this agreement as a backdrop for stating that a new party is needed. He criticized all the Blue parties for being a part of this deal with Mette Frederiksen's government. He says support for the budget means support for all aspect of the government spending for the next year. So he states that Denmark Democrats, DPP and New Right now enable a government to send further billions to corrupt African regimes, while Conservatives and Liberal Alliance are attacked for allowing further increases in public spending "so politicians can continue their extravagance and their fun feel-good projects". Therefore he states that there is a need for a new party: "A party that has the courage to go against the political power agenda and fight for Danes to have more freedom. A party that will use citizens' tax money on basic core welfare and not unnecessary feel-good projects. A party that believes Danes can do more than politicians allow them to."

A new Lars Boje party will of course be a threat mainly to the other right-wing parties, perhaps especially his former party New Right. He is a very charismatic MP with a big social media following, and has received some great personal elections. In 2022, he received 11 150 personal votes, the fourth-highest of all candidates in his Eastern Jutland constituency. Only surpassed by Alex Vanopslagh, Nicolai Wammen and Jakob Ellemann, and ahead of then Red-Green leader Mai Villadsen and new Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen. There should certainly be the potential for such a party to break through into parliament now that New Right has lost most of its shine and oppositional energy.

I think Lars Løkke and the Moderates will be quite happy if such a party is started and looks like entering parliament, as this would sustain the analysis that the wings of Danish politics are 'too crazy', so governments need to be formed across the centre instead of a return to Bloc politics.

https://twitter.com/DK_drikkevand/status/1729117607570395526

[Diouf]

The newly appointed Liberal Minister for Digitalization and Equality Mia Wagner is on sick leave after passing out last week. Stephanie Lose will cover her position as well.

The government has appointed Social Democrat MP Annette Lind as new consul general in Flensburg, so she will leave parliament to be replaced by former MP Karin Gaardsted. Lind has been a MP since 2011 with some very fine personal vote tallies in Western Jutland, but she has never become a Minister, which must have been disappointing for her. She is perhaps seen too much as a "local MP", which works hard for her area and on her spokesperson subject, mostly education, but isn't perhaps super charismatic or well-known outside of her own region.