UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Harlow]

If Labour lose in Uxbridge I think it poses questions about the Mayoral election next year - I think its fair to say that Khan hasn't been the best mayor and you've got the ULEZ issue in outer London and crime and the various issues with the Metropolitan Police as a big issue. Khan will be the favourite going in and the Conservative candidate is hardly inspiring but I think it'll end up close - there's also the fact that FPTP advantages the Conservatives as the Lib Dems and Greens votes that used to generally transfer towards Labour under SV obviously won't anymore.

Is Khan expected to run for a third term?

Yes, he already announced his intention to run again early last year and he is officially Labour's candidate.

[Harlow]

Keir Mather, the 25 year-old Labour Party candidate in Selby and Ainsty, just came back into the room smiling after being told the result.

[Harlow]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

[Harlow]

Oof, the Britain First and UKIP candidates beating the Greens and Lib Dems.

[Harlow]

What do we think the chances are of the eventual winner in Rochdale getting less than 30% of the vote?

[Harlow]

I’d probably be voting for Coleman if I was in this constituency(/country) but it seems like there are no good realistic options here. Dreading the response of uninformed fellow pro-Palestinians who might see Galloway’s win as a positive thing, without knowing what a ghoulish man he is.

[Harlow]

Henry Riley is now reporting that Tully's team say he has come a "comfortable second".

Well that’s quite a shock, but an interesting one.

[Harlow]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

[Harlow]

Can Galloway hold the seat in the general election?

A lot of different stars would have to align for that to happen, but in a coming Labour landslide where they will (likely) have a normal candidate, basically no chance.

[Harlow]

May be interesting to see if Galloway actually runs in Rochdale in a GE or chooses a seat more favourable to him.

Which seats would be more favorable to him? One of the seats he won in the past with higher % of Muslims?