Vatican City 2013 papal election

[RodPresident]

Scherer generated a crisis in Sao Paulo Catholic University as he put as rector the 3rd placed on an election, after she promised to refuse if she failed to get 1st spot in triple list election. Best Brazilian candidates aren't cardinal by now. Bishop Tempesta (Rio de Janeiro) and Bishop Krieger (Salvador) would be interesting in a conclave. Among Brazilian Five, Damasceno would be an acceptable choice.

[doktorb]

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One reason being, he is too young. The experience of John Paul II should be sobering: only 3 of the cardinals in the Conclave that elected him where still eligible to vote the next time around. And one of these three (Jaime Cardinal Sin of Manila) was so infirm he never made it to Rome, which left just two to actually  participate. Granted, one of the two got to be elected Pope (the other was the American, William Cardinal Baum). But that was luck. For most of them it should be clear: you elect the young guy now, you won't be the Pope yourself.

Which is sobering a thought for them but not perhaps great practice in the long term. Stability, which is what the Church really needs right now, is not best given by way of four and twenty 80-year-olds being bumped off every five years in the name of ambition (or something like ambition).

[Keystone Phil]

Any idea if Super Delegate Benedict will be issuing an endorsement before the Conclave?

[Franknburger]

Cardinal Meissner, the head of the German congregation of Catholic Bishops, yesterday made a statement that the next Pope should preferably not be older than 70 years. From my understanding, this would exclude most of the Italian candidates.

To which extent Meissner only spoke for himself or was articulating considerations of certain other Germans within the Roman-Catholic leadership has remained unclear to me.

P.S: it is also rumoured here that it was the Italian "delegation" that provided the critical votes for Benedict's election, and they are currently reminding the German Cardinals on it.

P.P.S: Two new names in the press here: Christoph Schönborn (Vienna, a former student of Benedict), and Luis Antonio Tagle (Manila).

[minionofmidas]

Any idea if Super Delegate Benedict will be issuing an endorsement before the Conclave?

I doubt it. He's on experimental ground as is, any kind of politicking for a successor or, well, talking about his successor's policies he would probably consider as endangering the unity of the Church and damaging the Papacy.

[Keystone Phil]

Any idea if Super Delegate Benedict will be issuing an endorsement before the Conclave?

I doubt it. He's on experimental ground as is, any kind of politicking for a successor or, well, talking about his successor's policies he would probably consider as endangering the unity of the Church and damaging the Papacy.

...I wasn't serious. I just wanted to refer to him as a Super Delegate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any idea if Super Delegate Benedict will be issuing an endorsement before the Conclave?

I doubt it. He's on experimental ground as is, any kind of politicking for a successor or, well, talking about his successor's policies he would probably consider as endangering the unity of the Church and damaging the Papacy.

...I wasn't serious. I just wanted to refer to him as a Super Delegate.

You can call him Grand Elector while you're at it.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Any idea if Super Delegate Benedict will be issuing an endorsement before the Conclave?

I doubt it. He's on experimental ground as is, any kind of politicking for a successor or, well, talking about his successor's policies he would probably consider as endangering the unity of the Church and damaging the Papacy.

...I wasn't serious. I just wanted to refer to him as a Super Delegate.

You can call him Grand Elector while you're at it.

It's a shame he won't be allowed to vote because of the age limit. There's such great potential for titles.

[Iannis]

Cardinal Meissner, the head of the German congregation of Catholic Bishops, yesterday made a statement that the next Pope should preferably not be older than 70 years. From my understanding, this would exclude most of the Italian candidates.

To which extent Meissner only spoke for himself or was articulating considerations of certain other Germans within the Roman-Catholic leadership has remained unclear to me.

P.S: it is also rumoured here that it was the Italian "delegation" that provided the critical votes for Benedict's election, and they are currently reminding the German Cardinals on it.

P.P.S: Two new names in the press here: Christoph Schönborn (Vienna, a former student of Benedict), and Luis Antonio Tagle (Manila).

I agree. This resignation is also a message in favour of a younger Pope, and I hope someone coming outside of Europe. Tagle would be very good.

[Platypus]

I thought it was a 'quick, elect Azinze before he dies so we can have an African for a couple of years to look inclusive but not actually change anything' sign, actually.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With the conclave scheduled to start 15 March, that means we're down to 116 cardinal-electors as not only will Lubomyr Husar reach age 80 by then, but so will Walter Kasper.

[minionofmidas]

With the conclave scheduled to start 15 March, that means we're down to 116 cardinal-electors as not only will Lubomyr Husar reach age 80 by then, but so will Walter Kasper.

116 to 119 - Ratzinger could still appoint people to fill the vacancies (but not the Kasper one as that will only occur after he's left office.)

Then again, they could theoretically all die before 15th march, so 0 to 119.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Dark horse candidate:

[ag]

With the conclave scheduled to start 15 March, that means we're down to 116 cardinal-electors as not only will Lubomyr Husar reach age 80 by then, but so will Walter Kasper.

If I recall correctly (admittedly, I haven't checked recently), you are eligible, if you are under 80 at the time of the vacancy. So, Kasper should be fine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With the conclave scheduled to start 15 March, that means we're down to 116 cardinal-electors as not only will Lubomyr Husar reach age 80 by then, but so will Walter Kasper.

If I recall correctly (admittedly, I haven't checked recently), you are eligible, if you are under 80 at the time of the vacancy. So, Kasper should be fine.

Sources I've seen state that it's age 80 at the start of the conclave, which means Kaspar gets no vote unless it starts before the 5th, but also that Severino Poletto, Archbishop Emeritus of Turin won't suddenly lose his vote on the 18th if the conclave has already begun but not yet selected a replacement for the Pope Emeritus when he turns 80.

[Famous Mortimer]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2281411/Cardinal-Peter-Turkson-blames-gay-priests-abuse-scandals-facing-Catholic-church.html

Comments like this are why there will never be an African Pope.

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2281411/Cardinal-Peter-Turkson-blames-gay-priests-abuse-scandals-facing-Catholic-church.html

Comments like this are why there will never be an African Pope.

You do realise that the Catholic church is somewhat less concerned about gay rights than the average secular Westerner, don't you?

[Јas]

Vatican may bring forward conclave for next pope - BBC

[Keystone Phil]

La Repubblica is reporting that Dolan has strong backing from Italian and American Cardinals.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2281411/Cardinal-Peter-Turkson-blames-gay-priests-abuse-scandals-facing-Catholic-church.html

Comments like this are why there will never be an African Pope.

Because Africa is a cultural and ideological monolith.

[Niemeyerite]

God save us from a Spanish Pope!

[Velasco]

God save us from a Spanish Pope!

Why? Alexander VI, born Roderic Llançol i Borja (Spanish:Rodrigo de Borja, Italians say Borgia), was a great Pope! Nothing to do with Rouco Varela... Don't worry, the Spain's Church lacks of power in these days.

[Paleobrazilian]

Here's what I personally expect:

1- No older than 70 years old.
2- Someone who has been a cardinal for at least 2 years (I don't think someone made cardinal in the 2012 consistories will be elected).
3- Someone who has not spent the last few days/weeks campaigning.
4- Since a candidate will need 2/3 of the votes to be elected, compromise WILL be needed. Italians will be looking for a Italian Pope, but I think they'll be forced to compromise on that, as Third World candidates could block anyone they don't really like.

Thus, here are the ones I'd keep an eye on:

From the Curia:

Marc Ouellet (Canada) - Holds one of the most important positions at the Curia, and thanks to him some of those in the conclave became bishops back in the past. Would be a very intriguing choice, but many say he's not a great speaker.
Leonardo Sandri (Argentina) - Holds an important position at the Curia, around 70, from a strongly Catholic South-American country.
Peter Turkson (Ghana) - I don't expect him to be elected, as he's been talking too much about being available for the job. Maybe he really doesn't want to be the next Pope. You never know, though.
Raymond Leo Burke (USA) - This might surprise some, but I see him as a potential choice - a 64-year old cardinal who's responsible for the "Supreme Court" of the Vatican.
Jean-Louis Tauran (France) - A darkhorse. He's been a cardinal for almost a decade, and is currently the Cardinal Protodeacon - thus, if not elected, he'll deliver the Habemus Papam speech.
Antonio Cañizares Llovera (Spain) - He's one of those I see as a potential compromise candidate. Called "Little Ratzinger" for his views.

Archbishops:

Christoph Schönborn (Austria) - Some might see him as "too liberal", a strong candidate otherwise.
Odilo Scherer (Brazil) - Young, runs one of the largest archdioceses in the World (São Paulo), and comes from the country with the biggest number of Catholics in the planet.
Óscar A. R. Maradiaga (Honduras) - Strongly connected to Third World causes, has been the President of Caritas Internationalis, and the Vatican's spokesperson within the IMF and the World Bank.
Peter Erdo (Hungary) - I see him as a very strong compromise candidate. A few years ago, he was mentioned a lot as a candidate, but the hype around him has diminished a little bit. He's just 60, and comes from a country that remains mostly Catholic despite the communist regime. He's also the President of Europe's Bishop Conference, and has avoided gaffes through his career so far. Basically, some circumstances remind a lot those present when John Paul II was elected.
Angelo Scola (Italy) - Many see him as the safe choice. Just over 70, I expect him to get a few votes from his Italian peers in the 1st two ballots, then steadily decline as the cardinals look for a compromise candidate.
Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) - Could be the compromise candidate from Italy.
Angelo Bagnasco (Italy) - Like Sepe, could emerge as a compromise candidate over Scola.
Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico) - Reminds Cardinal Maradiaga a lot. He comes from a Catholic powerhouse and hasn't been shy talking about Mexican politics.
Kurt Koch (Switzerland) - A darkhorse.

[Tender Branson]

You can probably rule out the German-speakers on that list, because it's more than unlikely they pick 2 in a row.

[Famous Mortimer]

Maradiaga doesn't have a chance because of his comments about the Jews.