CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 7

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I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

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Junk poll.

Joking.. sort of. I have a hard time believing Obama could have a seven point lead based solely on overwhelming support from Hispanics and middling support from white folks. Or is Colorado really that minority heavy?

Colorado's Hispanic vote is actually a very small slice of the electorate.  If Obama's tanking white voters in Colorado, then his hope for Colorado's nine votes is slimming.

It would be great to see where this poll is getting their demographics from and what parts of the state and cities.

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Colorado seems to me like it would be a better state for Romney than for most other Republican candidates.

It is, and most of the polling confirms that.  I could go down to the local Baskin Robbins and get a better sample than PPP.

Or Cold Stone Creamery, lol.

[5280]

I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

Colorado has been drifting D. The Romney campaign must go to heroic efforts to win Colorado... OR win some state that has been assumed stalwart D but has been drifting R and is nearly ripe for the picking. Just look at the 2010 election, which should have been a big win for Republicans in Colorado.

Rasmussen is right and has the state as a virtual tie, PPP has the state on the fringe of contention, or else Colorado is weak D.

It is safe to say that Colorado is one state that went for Dubya reliably but has turned on any legacy of his policies. Such happens the other way, too -- think of Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia, the sorts of states that used to be reliably D in all but R landslides but that went R about twelve years ago as the political culture has changed.  

Mitt Romney can win Colorado, but for such to happen he must force a nationwide shift in voting in his favor or President Obama must endure some political calamity that nobody can foresee. Romney may be consolidating the vote that went for Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum in the primaries, but that will not be enough with which to win in November. He must basically take back the demographic of the old Rockefeller Republicans who are well-educated, liberal on social values, center-leaning on economics, and hostile to crime. Reagan and Bush won those in the 1980s... and Romney needs them back fast.

He's gonna have to try harder for the white vote in Denver county or get more moderates onboard that are wishy-washy.

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Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

[5280]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

I could probably tell you that very easily....Obama is winning the white vote in Denver, Boulder and ski towns. He is losing it in the plains, Colorado Springs, Weld and Douglas County. And the white vote in Larimer, Jefferson, Arapahoe and Adams decide the state.

Denver and Boulder are elitest pockets of liberalism.  I happen to live in Adams county, it has a slight Democrat leaning, Jefferson county is Republican leaning.  What you say about the other counties are true.  The surrounding counties will decide which way the state votes in November.

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The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.

2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.

2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.

Regardless what educated people think of Obama, his record so far sucks. It's going to take a lot of persuasion for people to vote Obama a 2nd term, even some Democrats are not a fan of his policies and some may even stay home this election.

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If the GOP gives up CO indefinitely, they have better chances in other states. Its pointless to try hard and win this state anymore.