Early 2024 Presidential Ratings + 2022

[Orca]

My ratings:

[Orca]

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 

[Orca]

I think it's the most realistic outcome at the moment due to rust belt trends and other trends in general. I also think that AZ, GA, NC, and TX will have shifts to the left with TX probably being within 1 or 2 points. This would probably make more sense if I included margins but I don't know much about margins on this website. 

I think there’s a good chance TX stays at about a Cornyn 2020 senate margin across the board with more suited Republican nominees.

That is highly unlikely. Texas has been shifting to the left fast for over a decade and shows no signs of slowing down in major metro areas like Houston and Dallas-Forth Worth.

[Orca]

Comparing it to the popular vote isn't an effective measure. The most effective measure is measuring by the actual state shifts. The only reason the shifts in Texas from 2016-2020 were less than 2012-2016 was due to Rio Grande shifts, and those counties can only shift so far to the right. The cities are getting bluer at a faster rate, not slower, and are the main driving forces in Texas going left, most likely meaning a blue Texas in either 2024 or 2028 (more likely 2028). It is undeniable that Texas is shifting to the left fast, and the main driving factors in that (DFW and Houston) will consistently help to make that the case. Texas shows no signs of halting its leftward trend, even with the help of Hispanics in regions like Rio Grande.