UT Sen 2022: McMullin vs. Lee

[beaver2.0]

Let's go Big Ev

[Hope For A New Era]

I'd like to order a McMuffin...

[7,052,770]

I assume he caucused with Republicans if he wins?

Yes, he'd he an improvement over Mike Lee marginally, but not someone for Democrats to care about.

I disagree.  He may essentially be a Republican in all but name BUT he’d at least be a respectable one.  He would never advocate for overthrowing American democracy.  In the present timeline, that outweighs one’s politics.

All Democrats in the state should get behind him.  He’s literally the only chance—however small it may be—of toppling a Trump Republican in the state.

I'd be fine with not running a candidate here and letting D voters go to McMullin, but I don't think it would make much difference. If he becomes the de facto Democratic candidate, it hurts him among Republicans.

What would be neat is if McMullin were a little more popular and Utah were a little more Democratic, then maybe McAdams could snipe a 3-way race in the high 30s, but that's not happening.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

The most ironic part about this is that Mike Lee voted for McMullin in 2016.
https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=4563854&itype=CMSID

[Roll Roons]

Ben McAdams endorses McMullin:
https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1457695109634482181

I guess he'll be the default Dem option. In the very unlikely event that he makes it to the Senate, I really wonder who he'd caucus with.

[Stuart98]

Safe Lee.

[NOVA Green]

Ben McAdams endorses McMullin:
https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1457695109634482181

I guess he'll be the default Dem option. In the very unlikely event that he makes it to the Senate, I really wonder who he'd caucus with.

Like it....

Strongly suspect that this might end up being a sleeper race....

Existential future of the Republican Party hangs in the balance.

No evidence that Trump is going anywhere and all evidence indicates a '24 run.

He's in the middle of "Purging the Party of All Dissidents" as part of a Night of the Long Knives....

Utah is naturally "Ground Zero", since although he needs to be very careful going after Romney this IS someone who Trump would love to take down and cement control of the Republican Party.

United Front in Utah coming soon my friends and comrades who believe in American Democracy....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's a Biden midterm. Safe R.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ahunt4congress/status/1451712968585093123
Austin Searle who seems to be running the most well-funded campaign on the D side inappropriately hit on Alexandra Hunt a progressive running for congress in PA. If he's the nominee this could end up becoming a big issue the state party may decline to endorse him as the Nebraska Democratic party did with Janicek in NE.

[StateBoiler]

I feel like the smarter play for him would be to pick the Congress district that's his best potential one to run against a Republican incumbent. It'd be helpful to him if the Republican was a raging Trumper, but that's not Mike Lee, and it's not Mitt Romney either.

[ElectionsGuy]

Mike Lee has played his state fairly well, doing what Glenn Youngkin just did in Virginia throughout the Trump presidency and beyond. Hell, he even voted for McMullin in '16.

McMullin, at this point, like the rest of the neocon NeverTrump grifters, will be seen as a Democrat, and will not have any chance of winning a Safe R state in a Likely R year.

[Ferguson97]

Should Democrats run a candidate and hope McMullin is a spoiler, or back him in a head-to-head race?

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/ahunt4congress/status/1451712968585093123
Austin Searle who seems to be running the most well-funded campaign on the D side inappropriately hit on Alexandra Hunt a progressive running for congress in PA. If he's the nominee this could end up becoming a big issue the state party may decline to endorse him as the Nebraska Democratic party did with Janicek in NE.

Just from his tweets Searle was giving me bad vibes.

[One Term Floridian]

AT BEST McMuffin will be the Greg Orman of this cycle. AT BEST.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait til we see a poll, I like McMullin


It's VBM not same day voting anything can happen, no one thought D's would get 80M votes but the Rs overachiever with Trump and got 75M these races aren't gonna be decided on Election night we waited until Friday especially PA and WI, and MI, that's why the R Nut map on the compiled map is wrong it's VBM

I keep saying this over and over again😁😁😁

[Coldstream]

McMullin is too good for Utah.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's VBM and UT, CO, WA, OR and AK are fickled with VBM that's why Gross almost won the Senate race against Sullivan and Bill Walker with Begich came within inches of Dunleavy don't underestimate the VBM system in any state and watch out for OH and NC, McConnell listed OH, NC, LA, GA, WI, PA, AZ, NV and NH as battlegrounds we have more targets in Govs and Senate but obviously Rs have more in the H😆😆😆

Betsy Johnson will be the next Gov of OR not done D

It's not same day voting where a decision will be made on Election night, they may call the H but due to LA and GA Runoffs the Senate will in flux for awhile

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmullin/status/1445365771828334594?s=21

Great ad and he has my endorsement. Unfortunately, he's still losing.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I feel like the smarter play for him would be to pick the Congress district that's his best potential one to run against a Republican incumbent. It'd be helpful to him if the Republican was a raging Trumper, but that's not Mike Lee, and it's not Mitt Romney either.

Lee voted against certification, I believe. He's a pig.

You sound deeply unprepared for the rest of your life.

I just question that Mike Lee isn't a Trumper when he was one of just a handful of senators to object. I also find the comparison to Mitt Romney - an actual courageous FF and patriot - outrageous, since he had the spine to vote to convict and Lee didn't even have the spine to vote to certify.

EDIT: And...that post just got deleted....

Mike Lee didn't vote to object.

[Schiff for Senate]

I feel like the smarter play for him would be to pick the Congress district that's his best potential one to run against a Republican incumbent. It'd be helpful to him if the Republican was a raging Trumper, but that's not Mike Lee, and it's not Mitt Romney either.

Lee voted against certification, I believe. He's a pig.

You sound deeply unprepared for the rest of your life.

I just question that Mike Lee isn't a Trumper when he was one of just a handful of senators to object. I also find the comparison to Mitt Romney - an actual courageous FF and patriot - outrageous, since he had the spine to vote to convict and Lee didn't even have the spine to vote to certify.

EDIT: And...that post just got deleted....

Mike Lee didn't vote to object.

My mistake...

For some reason I remembered reading somewhere that he voted against certification, but I should've remembered my own fun fact - that of the 8 objectors, six were southerners (off the top of my head - Hyde-Smith, Tuberville, Scott, Kennedy, Hawley and Cruz) and that the other two were Marshall and Lummis.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Probably tough for McMullin but I don't know if you guys realize that Lee is not actually popular in Utah. He's being challenged in the primary and last I saw hasn't polled at 50%. Someone correct if I'm wrong of course, but if I was McMullin I'd absolutely be shooting my shot.

McMuffin could barely crack 20% of the vote against Donald J. Trump, the worst Republican fit for Utah in known history.

Also, Mike Lee is an electoral monster in Utah who won 70% of the vote with Trump on the ballot. (Granted, his opponent was literally a transgender running in UTAH).

He's not an electoral monster, a Transgender in Utah who ran against him got more than Clinton. McMuffin cracked 20% of the vote after like less than a month of campaigning.

[Calthrina950]

Probably tough for McMullin but I don't know if you guys realize that Lee is not actually popular in Utah. He's being challenged in the primary and last I saw hasn't polled at 50%. Someone correct if I'm wrong of course, but if I was McMullin I'd absolutely be shooting my shot.

McMuffin could barely crack 20% of the vote against Donald J. Trump, the worst Republican fit for Utah in known history.

Also, Mike Lee is an electoral monster in Utah who won 70% of the vote with Trump on the ballot. (Granted, his opponent was literally a transgender running in UTAH).

He's not an electoral monster, a Transgender in Utah who ran against him got more than Clinton. McMuffin cracked 20% of the vote after like less than a month of campaigning.

I always find this twist of McMullin's name to be an interesting insult. Trump was apparently the one who coined it. But otherwise, your point is correct, by and large. In 2016, Lee got you would expect a Generic R to receive in Utah. His overperformance over Trump can be explained by the fact that he won virtually all of the McMullin voters, most of whom are conservative Republicans and most of whom loyally supported that Party downballot in that year.

Gary Herbert, who won his second and final full term as Governor that year, also got most of the McMullin vote. Nevertheless, in the years since, some of the McMullin vote has peeled away from Republicans, as Mitt Romney in 2018 and Spencer Cox in 2020, while still cracking 60%, both did worse than Lee and Herbert, and Trump himself "only" got 57% against Biden. I expect for Lee to do worse than in 2016, although he should crack 60% again.

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmullin/status/1445365771828334594?s=21

Great ad and he has my endorsement. Unfortunately, he's still losing.

^^^

Ditto. (And I contributed financially to McMullin too.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UT, AK, OR and KS can be surprises AK Gov not Sen Murkowski is safe because they don't break the red wall that much and Kelly like Beshear is an entrenched incumbent

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/JennyWilsonUT/status/1500937363953836032
wow Ben Mcadams and Jenny Wilson Backing Mcmuffin now you gotta wonder if the D's are gonna be pressured to drop out