AR-AFSCME/Clark Research: Sen. Pryor (D) leads Cotton by 8
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Author Topic: AR-AFSCME/Clark Research: Sen. Pryor (D) leads Cotton by 8  (Read 979 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 05, 2013, 12:21:42 PM »


https://docs.google.com/file/d/1FjiZ_AAgkpZ0ine6uSxzm9c1WvAQgQB7Rb3kWT65i6vVYg9upP8f5xDOx4US/edit?pli=1
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2013, 12:28:02 PM »
So, ca. Pryor+5 right now.

A recent GOP poll has shown Pryor leading Cotton by 1, now this union poll has him up by 8.

Factoring in the "internal lean" of the companies, +5 seems most likely.
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2013, 12:28:18 PM »
That's... quite unbelievable, actually.  How is this pollster's reputation?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2013, 12:30:29 PM »
Quote from: Scott on August 05, 2013, 12:28:18 PM
That's... quite unbelievable, actually.  How is this pollster's reputation?

Why do you think it's unbelievable ? Lead too high, or too low ?
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2013, 12:52:45 PM »
I'd like to see this corroborated by someone else before people start assuming Pryor has a distinct advantage. (In Arkansas, +5 for Dems is distinct)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2013, 12:58:42 PM »
The only public poll we have to work with here is a Talk Business (AR's top pollster) in February pegging Pryor's approval at 42/35/23. Keep in mind that in 2010, polling didn't start till Boozman formally declared. So maybe once Cotton announces tomorrow night we'll get something real.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2013, 01:01:35 PM »
I doubt a large majority of those undecideds would eventually favor Pryor, so this doesn't seem too far off base (though I think this poll seem to lean left if Obama has a 41% approval in Arkansas).
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2013, 01:03:03 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 05, 2013, 12:30:29 PM
Quote from: Scott on August 05, 2013, 12:28:18 PM
That's... quite unbelievable, actually.  How is this pollster's reputation?

Why do you think it's unbelievable ? Lead too high, or too low ?

Too high.  These days, I have to question any poll showing a Democrat in Arkansas leading by more than two points or so. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2013, 03:21:16 PM »
Judging from how rattled Pryor was on Friday, I don't think he's happy with the polling situation.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2013, 04:03:03 PM »
I have to question any Arkansas poll showing a Pryor lead of any size...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2013, 06:01:05 PM »
Um, wow, this is good news for democrats I suppose.
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SPC
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2013, 06:35:38 PM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on August 05, 2013, 04:03:03 PM
I have to question any Arkansas poll showing a Pryor lead of any size...

So that GOP internal must have been biased in favor of Pryor...
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2013, 01:09:43 AM »
Pryor's lead isn't due to his popularity, it's due to Cotton being an unknown quantity. Expect to see Pryor's lead shrinks as Cotton hits the mainstream. Or his lead will grow as Cotton scares everyone away with his far-right conservatism.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2013, 09:18:48 PM »
The poll is commissioned by a union, an organization that has an obvious bias in polling.

Polls commissioned by trade associations, political parties, minority-rights organizations, and unions are unworthy of trust in themselves.   
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2013, 09:43:30 PM »
I know, but PPP isn't touching this race and local pollster hasn't polled it yet. Plus if we post internals, why not post quasi-internals like these?
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