2022 NCAA Basketball Discussion Thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Very rough Bracketology (I usually spend a lot more time on this, but I'm just going to quickly put one together before the show):

1 Seeds: Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette
3 Seeds: UConn, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Baylor
4 Seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Xavier, Virginia
5 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Indiana, Texas A&M
6 Seeds: TCU, Iowa State, Kentucky, Creighton
7 Seeds: Miami, Memphis, Northwestern, Missouri
8 Seeds: Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, West Virginia
9 Seeds: Penn State, Maryland, Auburn, Iowa
10 Seeds: Boise State, Utah State, Illinois, USC
11 Seeds: Rutgers, NC State, Nevada/Providence, Mississippi State/Arizona State
12 Seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, VCU, Drake
13 Seeds: Iona, Kent State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Grand Canyon
14 Seeds: Princeton, Furman, UCSB, Kennesaw State
15 Seeds: Colgate, Montana State, UNC-Asheville, Vermont
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Farleigh Dickinson, Howard/SE Missouri State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi/Texas Southern

Last Four Byes:
Illinois
USC
Rutgers
NC State

Last Four In:
Nevada
Providence
Mississippi State
Arizona State

First Four Out:
Pitt
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State
North Carolina

Next Four Out:
Clemson
Wisconsin
Oregon
New Mexico

[NewYorkExpress]

Very rough Bracketology (I usually spend a lot more time on this, but I'm just going to quickly put one together before the show):

1 Seeds: Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette
3 Seeds: UConn, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Baylor
4 Seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Xavier, Virginia
5 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Indiana, Texas A&M
6 Seeds: TCU, Iowa State, Kentucky, Creighton
7 Seeds: Miami, Memphis, Northwestern, Missouri
8 Seeds: Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, West Virginia
9 Seeds: Penn State, Maryland, Auburn, Iowa
10 Seeds: Boise State, Utah State, Illinois, USC
11 Seeds: Rutgers, NC State, Nevada/Providence, Mississippi State/Arizona State
12 Seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, VCU, Drake
13 Seeds: Iona, Kent State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Grand Canyon
14 Seeds: Princeton, Furman, UCSB, Kennesaw State
15 Seeds: Colgate, Montana State, UNC-Asheville, Vermont
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Farleigh Dickinson, Howard/SE Missouri State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi/Texas Southern

Last Four Byes:
Illinois
USC
Rutgers
NC State

Last Four In:
Nevada
Providence
Mississippi State
Arizona State

First Four Out:
Pitt
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State
North Carolina

Next Four Out:
Clemson
Wisconsin
Oregon
New Mexico

Switch North Carolina and Nevada. The committee will bend over backwards to put the Tar Heels in because they make the NCAA money.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I will be beyond shocked if North Carolina is in.

[7,052,770]

A huge ... sigh of ... re-lee-eeff!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I expected we were probably going to be left out because of the stupid NET, but I wasn't expecting to not even be one of the First Four Out.

[7,052,770]

I expected we were probably going to be left out because of the stupid NET, but I wasn't expecting to not even be one of the First Four Out.

I'm not a NET defender per se, but it's not like KenPom or Torvik ranks Vanderbilt any higher. If you judge the entire season equally rather than weighting the end higher, Vanderbilt's resume just doesn't cut it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I expected we were probably going to be left out because of the stupid NET, but I wasn't expecting to not even be one of the First Four Out.

I'm not a NET defender per se, but it's not like KenPom or Torvik ranks Vanderbilt any higher. If you judge the entire season equally rather than weighting the end higher, Vanderbilt's resume just doesn't cut it.

If only they still used RPI.  Our RPI was #39.  Metrics like Strength of Record also had us in the Top 50.  Plus, we had both the conference record and the Quad 1 wins.  Oh well, let's win the NIT.  Basically, all metrics that use scoring margin didn't like us, while those that don't use it thought we were a tournament team.

[NewYorkExpress]

First non-Syracuse job filled on the coaching carousel, as McNeese State has hired Will Wade to fill their vacancy at Head Coach.

On paper, this is a fantastic hire, as Wade has a great track record at Chattanooga, VCU and LSU, but the ongoing investigation into payment of players at LSU should have made this a non-starter.

I guess the closest comparison is Rick Pitino getting hired at Iona, though Iona is a more successful program than McNeese.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

UNC declines a NIT bid:

https://twitter.com/UNC_Basketball/status/1635058825916186624?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does any other Atlas poster see a map like this and instantly start wondering which ones are red "states" and which ones are blue?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/11psc4h/closest_2023_ncaa_tournament_team_to_each_us/

[Utah Neolib]

Purdue either loses in the second round or goes to the final four. They totally seem like that kind of team this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Purdue either loses in the second round or goes to the final four. They totally seem like that kind of team this year.

I can easily see Purdue losing in the second round to Memphis (assuming the Tigers beat FAU), which plays a disruptive trapping defense.  Purdue hasn't handled the press at all well in some of their games this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, here’s my first cut at the bracket.

First Four:

16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi over Southeast Missouri State
16 FDU over 16 Texas Southern
11 Mississippi State over 11 Pittsburgh
11 Arizona State over 11 Nevada

SOUTH REGION:

1 Alabama over 16 TAM-CC.
8 Maryland over 9 Virginia
12 Charleston over 5 San Diego State – Love those 12-5 upsets!
4 Virginia over 13 Furman
6 Creighton over 11 NC State
3 Baylor over 14 UCSB
10 Utah State over 7 Missouri
2 Arizona over 15 Princeton

1 Alabama over 8 Maryland
4 Virginia over 12 Charleston
6 Creighton over 3 Baylor
2 Arizona over 10 Utah State

1 Alabama over 4 Virginia
2 Arizona over 6 Creighton

2 Arizona over 1 Alabama

MIDWEST REGION:

1 Houston over 16 Northern Kentucky
9 Auburn over 8 Iowa
12 Drake over 5 Miami – Drake is on a roll lately.
13 Kent State over 4 Indiana – Just a hunch on this one.
6 Iowa State over 11 Mississippi State
3 Xavier over 14 Kennesaw State
7 Texas A&M over 10 Penn State
2 Texas over 15 Colgate

1 Houston over 9 Auburn
12 Drake over 13 Kent State
3 Xavier over 6 Iowa State
2 Texas over 7 Texas A&M

1 Houston over 12 Drake
2 Texas over 3 Xavier

1 Houston over 2 Texas

WEST REGION:

1 Kansas over 16 Howard
8 Arkansas over 9 Illinois
12 VCU over 5 St. Mary’s
4 UConn over 13 Iona
6 TCU over 11 Arizona State
3 Gonzaga over 14 Grand Canyon
7 Northwestern over 10 Boise State
2 UCLA over 15 UNC Asheville

1 Kansas over 8 Arkansas
12 VCU over 4 UConn
3 Gonzaga over 6 TCU
2 UCLA over 7 Northwestern

1 Kansas over 12 VCU
3 Gonzaga over 2 UCLA

3 Gonzaga over 1 Kansas

EAST REGION:

1 Purdue over 16 FDU
8 Memphis over 9 FAU
12 Oral Roberts over 5 Duke – ORU is another dangerous 12 seed.
4 Tennessee over 13 Louisiana
11 Providence over 6 Kentucky – I have zero confidence in Kentucky.
3 Kansas State over 14 Montana State
10 USC over 7 Michigan State
2 Marquette over 15 Vermont

8 Memphis over 1 Purdue
12 Oral Roberts over 4 Tennessee
3 Kansas State over 11 Providence
2 Marquette over 10 USC

8 Memphis over 12 Oral Roberts
2 Marquette over 3 Kansas State

2 Marquette over 8 Memphis

FINAL FOUR:

Houston over Gonzaga
Marquette over Arizona

Houston over Marquette

NOTE: I have assumed Marcus Sasser will be close to 100% by the second weekend of the tournament.  If he's not, Houston won't win the championship.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Great, great picks, Georgia Moderate. The Big Ten's record is going to be ugh-ly.

I similarly have Marquette over Memphis in that region - and both of those teams have got to be feeling blessed for the ease of difficulty in their quadrant. Kentucky and Providence are both ice cold. Efficiency metrics do not like Kansas State at all; I would not pick Montana State, but I could see it being the big name this year. I'm not sure I'm on board with Oral Roberts, but I will certainly be rooting for it against Duke. Tennessee and Purdue both feel like frauds (though I would love to see the match-up). Wouldn't be surprised if Memphis won the region, but feel safer having Marquette at least certainly playing in the regional final.

On the contrary, my title game - shoot me for making headlines that write themselves - has Marquette slain by Texas rather than Houston. I think Houston once again fails to advance past the Elite 8 once they match up against the first equally talented opponent. Early Gonzaga-esque.

Agree with Arizona winning the hearts of America by defeating Alabama too (though they shouldn't overlook Creighton after Round 1 was so fun back in Maui). I'm just surprised you think highly of Virginia given their recent play. Charleston-Furman sounds much more fun too

Undecided on the most stacked region.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Great, great picks, Georgia Moderate. The Big Ten's record is going to be ugh-ly.

I similarly have Marquette over Memphis in that region - and both of those teams have got to be feeling blessed for the ease of difficulty in their quadrant. Kentucky and Providence are both ice cold. Efficiency metrics do not like Kansas State at all; I would not pick Montana State, but I could see it being the big name this year. I'm not sure I'm on board with Oral Roberts, but I will certainly be rooting for it against Duke. Tennessee and Purdue both feel like frauds (though I would love to see the match-up). Wouldn't be surprised if Memphis won the region, but feel safer having Marquette at least certainly playing in the regional final.

On the contrary, my title game - shoot me for making headlines that write themselves - has Marquette slain by Texas rather than Houston. I think Houston once again fails to advance past the Elite 8 once they match up against the first equally talented opponent. Early Gonzaga-esque.

Agree with Arizona winning the hearts of America by defeating Alabama too (though they shouldn't overlook Creighton after Round 1 was so fun back in Maui). I'm just surprised you think highly of Virginia given their recent play. Charleston-Furman sounds much more fun too

Undecided on the most stacked region.

I'm not overly impressed by Virginia either, but think they're good enough to get by Furman, who did not impress me in the bits I saw of the SoCon tourney.  Virginia over Charleston was a tough call; it wouldn't surprise me at all for that to go the other way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh, and I won't be surprised if Texas can take out Houston either.  That should be an epic battle.  Again, a lot depends on Sasser being healthy for Houston.  Yesterday was a good demonstration that they're far from an elite team without him (though still very good).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alabama justifiably overtakes Houston in the final AP poll, although interestingly Houston is still #1 in the coaches poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's bracket projections: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-march-madness-predictions/.  Click on Table instead of Bracket to see a summary of everyone's odds.  Favorites to win it all:

25% Houston (25% seems way too high, even though I picked Houston)
15% Alabama
8% Texas
5% Purdue, Kansas
4% Gonzaga, Arizona
3% UCLA, UConn, Marquette, Baylor

[GeorgiaModerate]

Memphis-FAU is a rare (possibly unprecedented in the 64+ team era?) first-round game between two AP Top 25 teams.  Memphis is #24 and FAU #25 in the final poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Houston is my pick but made 4 brackets this time no more upsets like last time 1 and done

[NewYorkExpress]

Georgia Tech is expected to hire Boston Celtics assistant Damon Stoudemire as their new Head Coach.

If this goes through, it's a decent hire. Stoudemire has prior success at Pacific, as well as an assistant at Memphis and Arizona and was one of the best coaches on the Celtics staff this season.

Still, Georgia Tech has a long way to climb before it is competitive in the ACC, and one good coaching hire won't change that.

[Utah Neolib]

I actually have Florida Atlantic over Memphis. Memphis definitely seems like they could be a great defensive team but overrated.

[Хahar 🤔]

Still, Georgia Tech has a long way to climb before it is competitive in the ACC, and one good coaching hire won't change that.

It's the ACC, you don't have to be any good to be competitive there. Any good hire would obviously make Georgia Tech competitive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Aaron McKie has been fired by Temple.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I actually have Florida Atlantic over Memphis. Memphis definitely seems like they could be a great defensive team but overrated.

I really hope you are right, but this team finally strikes me as very good (in spite of their coach? or because he improved?). I'll never forget that Memphis was in the 8-9 game in the same quadrant 10 years ago against a mid-major in George Washington University. That did not go as I hoped.

My personal hopes for the champion among the 14 teams that have 2% of greater probabilities:

Good Outcome
1. Marquette (3%) - Big East! Shaka Resurrection I want to believe!
2. Creighton (2%) - New Big East! McDermott But I can't see this team having the consistency needed for six straight wins.
3. Purdue (5%) - Long overdue for them to get one over on Indiana. Painter grinding for decades at an underdog alma mater deserves it. But I don't give them much of a chance.

4. Arizona (4%) - Love Arizona but don't love when new coaches win so immediately. Let me warm up to the story.
5. Kansas (5%) - Prefer a mediocre team not to complete the repeat but, as usual, the most likeable blue blood

Tolerable Outcome
6. Gonzaga (5%) - I've come around to just accepting that they will win one someday. I don't have to deal with them.
7. Tennessee (2%) - Not sure I want to let this fanbase have anything that makes Clay Travis and his listeners even cockier about their place/the SEC's place in the college sports landscape but respect Rick Barnes' career just enough to accept it.  
8. UCLA (3%) - Don't like Mick Cronin at all but what's one more title for UCLA - plus the talent and veteran commitment has been impressive to watch these last few years.

Finding the Silver Lining
9. Connecticut (3%) - The worst fanbase in all of sports. I would like to cheer for a conference mate, but they have earned the ire they get. Again, what's one more championship for the program though - and it helps the conference.
10. Duke (2%) - Nothing even needs to be said, but perhaps the only funny side effect would be winning with a mediocre team and without Coach K, further derailing his fairytale GOAT status.
11. Texas (8%) - Loath Texas everything; an interim coach winning would not be ideal. But I really don't have to deal with them at all, and it's not like they even care. This isn't football.

Painful Outcome
12. Baylor (3%) - No dynasty for these wackos, please, please, please. The last one was bad enough, they do not deserve to be a winning power conference program. It would render our dynasty meaningless.
13. Alabama (16%) - If there is a legitimate self-defense acquittal in the trial, I could regret this placement, but then again, the attitude emanating from the program and its fans about the drama just makes it highly uncomfortable to root for this team - treat it with the gravity it deserves. Plus still have a major grudge against Quinerly's antics. Please just wait one season if they must win at some point.
14. Houston (22%) - I've really enjoyed the program's 40 years of misery and being remembered for the biggest choke job on the most iconic play of all-time. I don't want Kelvin Sampson to be the one to turn a mediocre school around. It cannot be a fairytale ending in Houston for this miserable fanbase. The guy I sat next to at the Elite 8 in San Antonio was cocky and pretty rude for a program with no success to speak of. He reminded me of the jmfcst's of the world, whom I regard with great contempt, just like this awful school in an awful city in an awful conference.

43% chance of complete misery if you add in some of those teams with fractional odds. Certainly over 60% chance I will not be very happy this season.