KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I cant believe I gave money to his candidacy.  Strickland, Walsh and now Grissom ended on sour note

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why people think this is anything other than Safe R. Even if Kobach is the nominee, Senate races are not Gubernatorial races.

Red state Democrats have done fairly well (and certainly a lot better than Republicans in blue states) in Senate races recently given that polarization is supposedly at an "all-time high." They won AL, MT, WV, OH, etc. and outperformed their state's lean/the fundamentals of the race significantly in states like MO, TN, ND, TX, OH, etc. in 2018 (or 2012/2014/2016, in many cases).

I mean, KS-SEN was already competitive in 2014 of all years, lol.

[Continential]

With Grissom out of the race basically, will Nancy Boyda be as good as he was or worse?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is safe R without Kobach as the nominee, and he will not win the primary again. This race is getting too much attention.

[VPH]

Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

Just from following her over the years, I don't think Clayton would do well in a statewide race. Holscher is already running for a seat in the Kansas Senate. Barbara Bollier is probably the more realistic option of the recent party flippers and she even met with Schumer recently, so might be open to it.

Bollier has been mentioned numerous times, and if Grissom falters, I can see her jumping in and having that JoCo base behind her. I don't know if JoCo is the right profile for a statewide victory though. I keep on hearing that Manhattan Mayor Usha Reddi is preparing to run. She has a compelling (and tragic) story and experience running a midsize college town in a swingy county in the middle of the state. Also, she's a teacher, which with all the recent hubbub around education issues in Kansas is helpful.
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article233019672.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grissom needs to dropout

[Epaminondas]

This is safe R without Kobach as the nominee, and he will not win the primary again. This race is getting too much attention.

One would think after your fiasco of predicting Jones v Moore, you'd stop the peremptory tone of your predictions in Red States.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not sure why people think this is anything other than Safe R. Even if Kobach is the nominee, Senate races are not Gubernatorial races.

Actually, they are very similar. Far closer to each other than either are to Presidential races. In 2006 and 2018, polarization was about equally strong between the 2. In 2014, polarization was admittedly much stronger in Senate races than in Gubernatorial races. However, in 2010, polarization was actually much stronger in Gubernatorial races than in Senate races.

[NeverAgainsSock]

I think this is definitely one of those "I'll watch, but not get my hopes up too high" type situations.

I don't think it can be underestimated how royally KSGOP Leadership f**ked the state up since 2011. I know it's a Senate Race, and I know it's a Trump +20 state, but I think there is a brewing (and overflowing) dislike of many KSGOP politicians (even if Democrats are disliked more in many areas).

In terms of the "Republicans may vote Dem for local and state, but not for Federal" argument... I think it is worth noting that in 3 out of Kansas' 4 congressional seats, Democrats have either flipped or gotten within 5 points of winning (1 point in KS-2) since 2016. And in 2018, it only went for the GOP on a federal basis by 9 points. And I probably don't need to remind you that in a national R+6 (for senate it was R+8) 2014 midterm, Pat Roberts could barely pull together a majority and was behind his only independent opposition - Orman - for much of the race.

There are a lot of caveats to this, but if Kobach gets the nom, and Democrats nominate a competent, Kelly-esque candidate, I would throw a few bucks here as the DSCC.

A great post-Midterm op-ed by an LGBT activist in Kansas really opened my eyes to how much Kansas has evolved, and how much good work activists are doing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/11/27/how-i-fell-love-with-kansas-spent-next-five-years-trying-change-it/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is safe R without Kobach as the nominee, and he will not win the primary again. This race is getting too much attention.

One would think after your fiasco of predicting Jones v Moore, you'd stop the peremptory tone of your predictions in Red States.

Moore +8 was a bad guess but not horrible

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1164260555823222784

https://twitter.com/maggiet1m3/status/1164273043386093568

[President Johnson]

Pompeo is betting on Trump's reelection? Bold.

[Oryxslayer]

Pompeo is betting on Trump's reelection? not firing him like everyone else in the next 1/5 years? Bold.

[Pollster]

Jeff Colyer calling for Jake LaTurner to abandon Senate campaign and primary Steve Watkins in KS-02

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1169042117764755456

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1169042117764755456

Marshall is someone who I think would defeat Kobach easily, particularly in a one-on-one race. He defeated Tea Partier Tim Huelskamp, who is similar to Kobach ideologically, back in the 2016 primary to win his current seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Franken, KS. Ak, NC and ME as well as CO & AZ can flip given Dems a padded Senate Maj with or without GA and AL

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Franken, KS. Ak, NC and ME as well as CO & AZ can flip given Dems a padded Senate Maj with or without GA and AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Franken, KS. Ak, NC and ME as well as CO & AZ can flip given Dems a padded Senate Maj with or without GA and AL

Trump is building a wall and average Americans are struggling with rents, gas prices and wages. A wall needs to be built but, Trump has made this the only issue that matters. Dubya abandoned SSA reform to build same wall; as a result 2008 happened

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1169280364474503170

KSGOP got their wish. LaTurner is going for the primary, Marshall has a clear route vs Kobach.

[Pandaguineapig]

Marshall is probably the favorite at this point

[tmthforu94]

The 1st is the most GOP voter rich district, so Marshall should have a good shot. I'm curious to see polling on this, I'd guess Kobach would lead based on name recognition with Marshall close behind and Wagle in a distant third.

The 2nd could shape up to a battle, but my guess is Watkins doesn't run for reelection because he knows there is dirt on him. Good news for the GOP, the race is Likely R with LaTurner as the nominee and he already has a name recognition and fundraising advantage. I suspect he easily wins that primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

[Lisa's voting Biden]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

Do you say whatever inane BS pops into your head at any given time or do you carefully plan out your crap ahead of time?

[DINGO Joe]

The KS Senate race isnt likely R,its a tossup. Dont go by the Cook, Sabato analyst, they are looking at what it will take Dems to get to 50, ME, AZ, AL and CO will, this seat is a seat that Dems can pad their Senate majority along with IA, AK, NC and GA

Do you say whatever inane BS pops into your head at any given time or do you carefully plan out your crap ahead of time?

Please take a deep breath and go to your happy place in your head and then resume posting.