KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[VPH]

Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist". Sounds to me like he wants to run. I like Brent on a personal level; he and his wife are wonderful people but he is absolutely not my preferred candidate for US Senate. Run for State House or State Senate maybe...

[DaWN]

Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist". Sounds to me like he wants to run. I like Brent on a personal level; he and his wife are wonderful people but he is absolutely not my preferred candidate for US Senate. Run for State House or State Senate maybe...

Yeah if there's ever a race where the Democrats need a Consensus Building Bipartisan Moderate, it's this one.

[ElectionsGuy]

Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist".

Gotta love that framing. Either you're a progressive democrat who loves democracy, justice, and equality, or your a corporate centrist warmonger neoliberal shill.

[We Live in Black and White]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. I think modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

I hope Kobach wins the nomination, just so I can see how long he lasts before he opens his mouth or turns out to be a pedophile.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. Modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

I hope Kobach wins the nomination, just so I can see how long he lasts before he opens his mouth or turns out to be a pedophile.

Why would knowledge of him being a pedophile have survived in its hidden status from his Gubernatorial run? I doubt it at this point.

[We Live in Black and White]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. Modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

I hope Kobach wins the nomination, just so I can see how long he lasts before he opens his mouth or turns out to be a pedophile.

Why would knowledge of him being a pedophile have survived in its hidden status from his Gubernatorial run? I doubt it at this point.

Same could be said of Roy Moore's multitudinous statewide runs over the years. It took a national race to expose him for what he was.

I'm not saying that's the case here or (least of all) wishing that it turns out to be so. Just pointing that out.

[tmthforu94]

Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist". Sounds to me like he wants to run. I like Brent on a personal level; he and his wife are wonderful people but he is absolutely not my preferred candidate for US Senate. Run for State House or State Senate maybe...

He is getting some backlash for that poll, well-deserved. As a Republican I would LOVE to see him as the Democratic nominee. As a Kansan, I hope Democrats find someone better to put up. I like Nancy Boyda, I wouldn't be terribly upset if she won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barry Grissom is gonna be the Dem nominee

[Pericles]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. Modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

Are you a shameless liar, or are you really that stupid/demented?

Given your posting history, you're not the best person to argue against his point.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. Modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

Are you a shameless liar, or are you really that stupid/demented?

You think all Democrats are communists.

[SWE]

Safe R -> Likely R. Koisch still probably wins but he's embarrassing enough to get a "probably" qualifier

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R -> Likely R. Koisch still probably wins but he's embarrassing enough to get a "probably" qualifier

In waves, red states and blue states dont vote their party ideology, sunbelt states turn purple. Barry Grissom can  beat Kobach in a blue wave. Just like Kelly won in 2018

[VPH]

I like Boyda on the issues, but she's continuing the anti-DC thing that cost her the Congressional race in 2008 when she refused national aid. Maybe it has more traction these days in the era of grassroots campaigns, but I don't know if it's the most prudent decision.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If any Republican can lose here, it's Kobach. But unlike gubernatorial elections, Senate elections are much different and Kobach will still be favored if he's the nominee. The risk of him being a slightly weaker nominee than a more conventional Republican isn't worth it. I hope he loses the nomination even if it means making a race that could have been likely R at best become safe R. The same goes with Roy Moore in Alabama. I'll take guaranteed generic awfulness over a gamble to defeat insurmountable crazy awfulness any day.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If any Republican can lose here, it's Kobach. But unlike gubernatorial elections, Senate elections are much different and Kobach will still be favored if he's the nominee. The risk of him being a slightly weaker nominee than a more conventional Republican isn't worth it. I hope he loses the nomination even if it means making a race that could have been likely R at best become safe R. The same goes with Roy Moore in Alabama. I'll take guaranteed generic awfulness over a gamble to defeat insurmountable crazy awfulness any day.

2010 disagrees with the idea that Senate Elections are more geographically polarized than Gubernatorial Elections. Also, the race is Lean D with Kobach. No need to get worked up about it.

[indietraveler]

Eh probably still a solid lean R if he gets the nomination. I think it only flips if there's a well known 3rd party name to play spoiler.

[smoltchanov]

Eh probably still a solid lean R if he gets the nomination. I think it only flips if there's a well known 3rd party name to play spoiler.

+1. Tilt R at least...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato moved this race out of safe R, Barry Grissom can win

[smoltchanov]

If any Republican can lose here, it's Kobach. But unlike gubernatorial elections, Senate elections are much different and Kobach will still be favored if he's the nominee. The risk of him being a slightly weaker nominee than a more conventional Republican isn't worth it. I hope he loses the nomination even if it means making a race that could have been likely R at best become safe R. The same goes with Roy Moore in Alabama. I'll take guaranteed generic awfulness over a gamble to defeat insurmountable crazy awfulness any day.

Generally agree. States with substantial percentage of population in rural areas generally (hipster Vermont and some other are exceptions), became "scorched earth" territory for Democrats, and Kansas is one of such states. Plus - generally, governors are more busy with more mundane and less ideological issues, and voters, knowing that, frequently prefer a "good manager" type of candidates with fewer ideological overtones. Congress, on another hand, is a "field of battle" over almost everything - from judicial nominations to foreign policy, so it attracts "warriors", who have no doubts (and, often, brains too)...
2010 disagrees with the idea that Senate Elections are more geographically polarized than Gubernatorial Elections. Also, the race is Lean D with Kobach. No need to get worked up about it.

2010 was a way different year than now were much more polarized then we were back then look at 2018 TN Sen IN Sen and MO sen for proof. Democrats who used to win rural areas by massive margins are now barely running ahead of clinton 2016 and often are significantly running behind obama 2012 and 2008. While on the governor side of things some democrats over performed in rural states and won but only by increasing margins in suburban areas look at KS gov 2018 SD Gov 2018 SC Gov 2018 OK Gov 2018 etc. In state areas elections party can push local issues to fight the trends of their states like in CA Gov and KS Gov where cox significantly outran congressional republicans ins suburban areas while Kelly did the same with congressional democrats. Kelly won Johnson county by 17% (Wow!). The dem nominee against Kobach will likely win Johnson county but by a lot less than Kelly I predict  6-10% this race is Safe R without Kobach and Very very likely R with him. I doubt Dems come within 8 here.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1153825899562713088

[smoltchanov]

Another Trumpist "solid conservative". Yawn...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grissom, if nominated, will win seat

[SnowLabrador]

Grissom, if nominated, will win seat

Only if Kobach is the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, he can win period, lets see polls first

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The Republican primary for this seat is shaping up to be just exactly the type of crowded field that would allow Kobach to clinch the nomination with a narrow plurality, and proceed to throw this seat to the Democrats in the general election.