Just think if Cuomo was the nominee in '88

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just think what a huge rout this would have been.

Bush would have won maybe only 10 states (mostly small ones).

They didn't lose by too much with Dukakis, and people agree that Cuomo was much, much stronger.

Maps?

[pragmatic liberal]

I don't know. Cuomo would have been stronger than Dukakis, to be sure, so it would have been a close race. But the country was much more conservative on issues like crime, death penalty and the suburban-urban split was far greater; many suburban voters would NOT have been attracted to an obviously big-city pol like Cuomo. And while Cuomo had been a largely effective governor of New York, he would have been assailed on many fronts. He would have fought back harder than Dukakis and he certainly would have done better in the debates, so who knows?

The problem is that, while I can see the Democrats doing much better, I still don't know if Cuomo could have won. Looking at the electoral map, what states could he have won that Dukakis didn't? Certainly a few more, but enough to win the election?

Of course, if Cuomo could beat Bush by about 3 points in the popular vote, he'd probably win an electoral college majority (just the way this thing tends to work). But an even race or a slight Cuomo popular vote disadvantage would probably translate to an electoral college loss.

Best case scenario for Cuomo?

This would be likelier: Cuomo (like any Dem nominee in '88) would have done unusually well in plains states (the farm crisis allowed the Democrats to outperform there that year) and he might have carried South Dakota and/or Montana. A Southern running mate like Bentsen or Dukakis might have allowed the ticket to carry - MAYBE - Louisiana or Texas, but it's unlikely. If he could carry Colorado, he'd be in good shape.

Otherwise, though, he'd have to fight to carry New Jersey and/or Ohio, as most scenarios for a Cuomo win rest on that. Both had a far bigger Bush advantage in '88 than a Democratic one and I'm not sure whether Cuomo's NY proximity to NJ would have helped him or hurt him.

Likely Bush Win

Narrow Cuomo Win

[DownWithTheLeft]

[Wakie]

Several thoughts on this one ....

*Bush won in 1988 largely running as Reagan's successor.  Remove Reagan and you remove a lot of Bush's popularity.

*Cuomo was rather liberal, but he was also rather cagey.  Much more so than Dukakis.

*With Cuomo you get no Kitty Dukakis is drunk scandal but you do get "Is Cuomo tied to the mob?"  Also you may not get Willie Horton, but you would get Arthur Shawcross.

*Unlike Dukakis, I doubt Cuomo would have picked Bentsen has as VP.  Bentsen totally overshadowed Dukakis and left you feeling like HE was the guy who should be the nominee.  I wonder who other people think Cuomo would have picked as his VP ....

[CPT MikeyMike]

Bush won only because of Reagan's success and a bad Democratic candidate. Here, the Democrats do better but the successes of Reagan administration still outweighs the improved Democratic ticket.

Bush: 317
Cuomo: 221

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now apparently some people not only think all future elections will be like 2004, they think all past alternate scenarios would as well.

Go look at the map again. States like Missouri and even South Dakota were closer than ones like Delaware, New Jersey and Maine.

[pragmatic liberal]

Several thoughts on this one ....

*Bush won in 1988 largely running as Reagan's successor.  Remove Reagan and you remove a lot of Bush's popularity.

*Cuomo was rather liberal, but he was also rather cagey.  Much more so than Dukakis.

*With Cuomo you get no Kitty Dukakis is drunk scandal but you do get "Is Cuomo tied to the mob?"  Also you may not get Willie Horton, but you would get Arthur Shawcross.

*Unlike Dukakis, I doubt Cuomo would have picked Bentsen has as VP.  Bentsen totally overshadowed Dukakis and left you feeling like HE was the guy who should be the nominee.  I wonder who other people think Cuomo would have picked as his VP ....

My own thinking is that a Bush-Cuomo race would have been a close one. But given Reagan's popularity, Bush would probably have a slight advantage.

And you're right that the Atwater-lead campaign would have thrown plenty of dirty tricks at Cuomo - I just think he'd have handled them better and proven himself better during the campaign than Dukakis. And, given that he had a more engaging personality than Bush, he could have won. It's just that it would have been a challenge.

As for running mates - the practice of "ticket-splitting" was still much more blatant. These days, tickets tend to be pretty ideologically consistent - i.e. geography rarely overrides ideology, nowadays - geography only supplements ideology. In '88, though, Cuomo could well have picked a centrist or a conservative and probably someone from the South and probably a senator.

I'd say...

1. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (Texas) - I do think Cuomo would have considered him - he wouldn't have overshadowed Cuomo as much as he overshadowed Dukakis.

2. Sen. Sam Nunn (Georgia)
3. Sen. Al Gore (Tennessee) - perhaps not, though - Gore was sort of a Lieberman-like figure at the time and he may have been a bridge too far.

4. Sen. Bob Graham (Florida)
5. Sen. David Boren (Oklahoma)

Otherwise, maybe Sen. Tim Wirth of Colorado.

Wakie, I have a question - do you think Cuomo would have been able to carry New Jersey? He was from close to there (NY) and he was an ethnic -- BUT, New Jersey was also much more conservative back then and had there was a big stigma towards NYC in New Jersey at the time.

[Wakie]

Wakie, I have a question - do you think Cuomo would have been able to carry New Jersey? He was from close to there (NY) and he was an ethnic -- BUT, New Jersey was also much more conservative back then and had there was a big stigma towards NYC in New Jersey at the time.

Cuomo certainly would be able to pull a lot of support in NJ.  But keep in mind that while Governor he alienated a lot of people in New York City and New Jersey over the issue of sports stadiums.  But at the end of the day, against Bush, I'd give NJ to Cuomo.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Bush would win but by less. The Reagan wave of popularity was THAT big.

[gorkay]

Cuomo would have had to pick a southern or western moderate Protestant as his Vice-Presidential nominee.

[Joseph20072008]

Bush win but more narrow than against Dukakis

[Eraserhead]

I think Cuomo would have won but it wouldn't have been remotely close to a rout.

[12th Doctor]

Just think what a huge rout this would have been.

Bush would have won maybe only 10 states (mostly small ones).

They didn't lose by too much with Dukakis, and people agree that Cuomo was much, much stronger.

Maps?

No way Kentucky goes for Bush, I can tell you that much.

[YRABNNRM]

Cuomo would've been a better candidate in '92.

[Lincoln Republican]

Best case scenario for northeast ultra liberal Cuomo running against respected Vice President Bush.

A southern running mate would not help Cuomo in the least.  He would go with someone from the midwest, perhaps Senator John Glenn of Ohio, who brings to the ticket his notoriety as a former astronaut, combined with his political experience as a Senator, who knows the workings of DC.

Bush/Quayle                     309
Cuomo/Glenn                    229