PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[wbrocks67]

No update of substance, but I wanted to just give an anecdote that I've seen quite a few Mastriano yard signs in Lancaster and Berks Counties over the past few weeks. I have not seen a single yard sign for any other candidate for any other statewide race (except my own Malcolm Kenyatta sign outside my apartment)

Yeah I have yet to see any sides for anyone in either Montco or Philly. It doesn't feel at all that the primary is only 2 months away.

[wbrocks67]

I saw a sign in my town in Montco that was for Rick Saccone for Gov. I didn't even know he was running lmao.

[wbrocks67]

I saw a sign in my town in Montco that was for Rick Saccone for Gov. I didn't even know he was running lmao.

I think he's going for LG.

Correct.

He should have someone new do his signs then - the "LT" part must've been VERY small to the point where I didn't see it and was very confused lol

[wbrocks67]

Any reason why there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about this race?

It seems as if the state GOP and the media have been focused on the Senate race. Especially odd since I think Barletta and Mastriano are both horrible candidates for a very winnable race like PA-GOV in a Republican year.

Is Shapiro just that strong of a candidate that people just expect him to win in spite of the political winds?

Combination of a completely uncompetitive D primary and a completely stupid GOP clown car primary, minus the interesting personalities like we have in the Senate primary. Nobody gives a sh*t about Mastriano or Barletta or White. They're all boring. At least there's been some fun jabs between Oz and McCormick.

Pretty much this. There's been basically zero polling on the race though - even in a GE sense - which is frustrating. But Shapiro is a very strong candidate and the GOP candidates on the GOV race side are getting zero traction.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has a crap ton of money (as opposed to most on the GOP side having nothing). He's already well known of course but he should use this time to run a ton of positive ads for himself.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1507352350398291973

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1511365640241745925

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if this race isn't even happening on the GOP side.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

huh?

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

huh?

He needs to have the energy that Wolf had in 2014 that increased turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh. Shapiro needs to be more jugular and aggressive against the GOP.

Clearly you don't follow him then...

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

This. I have cautious optimism about this race but it's hard not to. The environment is not good for Dems, but this is the best possible outcome for them, relatively speaking. Shapiro is strong, has lots of $$$, no opponents, and the GOP field is a total clown car with no $.

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

Eh even then, fundraising on a statewide level for a larger state is pretty meaningless.

I agree the GOP candidates have problems but if Dems win it won't be because of fundraising.

It'll be a factor though. It'll mostly be on the strength (or not) of the candidates, but Shapiro has a ton of $$ to really hit the message home while the GOP candidates have all been terrible fundraisers and given their own personal weaknesses, the fact that they won't have any $$ either won't help.

[wbrocks67]

Down goes McSwain.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1513890088102645774

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how anyone would think this is a Lean R race right now. We're talking about Mastriano and Barletta here, and even in a red environment, Shapiro has a historical track record of doing better in traditionally R counties as well.

[wbrocks67]

and Corman likely OUT

https://twitter.com/Owens_abc27/status/1513904470224216065

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/1513909191177560082

[wbrocks67]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

Why? He got his ass handed to him in 2018. He's a proven loser. Trump should endorse Mastriano, who will win the primary anyway.

+ Mastriano is much more closer to Trump ideologically (though Barletta is crazy too, but Mastriano is bat sh*t)

[wbrocks67]

Anyone think the Philadelphia mask mandate will affect the race?

No.

This. First of all, election is still 7 months away so the likelihood that the mandate would still be in effect by then is low (unless there is some massive huge additional surge) - meanwhile, like I've said in other threads - being someone who lives in Philly, a lot of people still wear masks anyway when there wasn't a mandate. So this isn't as huge of a deal as people are making it out to be.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Barletta is tanking in recent polls. Is this a temporary phenomena, or is this the beginning of the end for his campaign? If so, why is this happening?

MTE. You'd think he'd be #1 just based off of name rec and he was the original 'Trump of PA' back in 2018 with that campaign.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1518898806405976064

[wbrocks67]

If you have the $$ and there's no one else in the primary, it never hurts to start airing ads earlier. Just look at Youngkin. Especially if it's positive ads.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2022/04/new-poll-shows-doug-mastriano-14-point-lead-pennsylvania-gop-primary-governor/366333/

Third poll in April that shows Lou Barletta in third behind Mastriano and McSwain. Barletta continues to slide, Mastriano rockets ahead and McSwain seems to be holding steady despite Trump's anti-endorsement. Does Mastriano have this race sealed up? What chance does Lou have at winning at this point? How is McSwain managing to tread water despite Trump's attacks? Curious to hear some thoughts.

If Barletta can't catch any ground at this point, he's probably DOA. He came into this race with the highest name ID considering he ran statewide in 2018, so the fact that he's barely doing double digits is just pathetic

[wbrocks67]

It's truly interesting how Mastriano/Saccone could end up being a ticket very likely, and the two were pictured together at the insurrection. That probably is the worst case scenario ticket for the GOP

https://www.witf.org/2021/05/26/new-videos-appear-to-show-state-senator-doug-mastriano-closer-to-capitol-insurrection-than-he-said/

[wbrocks67]

and GOPs problem here in a nutshell:

https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1521191388423016452