absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Virginiá]

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This makes more sense to me. I always assumed that black turnout could drop 2%~ or so, but reverting to pre-Obama levels is, to me, absurd in just 1 election cycle. The only way that would seem plausible to me is if during early voting, most other demographics were showing large drops as well, which isn't the case so far.

But I guess such a huge drop could happen in such short order, in which case I'll happily eat my shoe.

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Wouldn't it, at least in part, have something to do with the lower Millennial turnout? It's been widely reported that Hispanic and African American Millennials are not at all enthused/happy with Clinton. As I recall, African American Millennial turnout was in the mid-50s range in 2008 and low-50s in 2012, tracking overall Millennial turnout. The only way to stabilize AA turnout this year with a drop in Millennials is for even more older AAs to come out in vote, which just isn't happening.

However, I don't think this is purely an Obama thing. I think if Democrats had chosen a candidate that Millennials loved (Bernie or Warren), their turnout could have stabilized and we probably would see a smaller, or even no drop in turnout among Millennials.

But, in the end, there is, unfortunately, precedent for both white and black youth turnout rates to plummet nearly 10% in just 4 years:



We'll just have to survey the damage once this is all over.


@NOVA Green: thanks for your take!

[Virginiá]

Hispanics in Florida aren't voting 70-30, rather by 25 points which is a big difference.

Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

[Virginiá]

Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/8714/7689/5921/NALEO_Latino_Battleground_States_Toplines.pdf

63 - 23 Clinton, but with a relatively long time in the field.

I suppose you can pick whichever in this case, but LD has been pretty accurate in the past and the TargetSmart poll would lend credence to this defection.

Reading these posts online here of all liberals you would think trump was down with hispanics by 40-50% in FLorida, not the case obviously.

I'd say there is plenty of evidence to support both conclusions. You can assert that "no way he's down by 40 with FL latinos" if you want, but you are by no means on solid ground when you say that, and you should at least acknowledge that.

[Virginiá]

they can't really get away with this, can they?

It's simple really; they already have.

But, if Cooper wins, Democrats will then control the local/state election boards from at least 2017 - 2021, and thus the early voting hours/locations for 2018 and 2020. That is how we not only fix the current issues, but expand early voting in the future.

[Virginiá]

Yup.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

It's telling when a candidate's supporters have been reduced to almost solely relying on strange, unproven & unlikely phenomena or straight up electoral miracles to justify their assertions that their candidate will beat the odds and pull out a win.

[Virginiá]

This article has nothing to do with Shy Theory. Like not at all.

Uhm? I read his link before posting and I'm well aware of what it was about. Did you not consider why I responded to his post while using two different terms? If I was solely referring to the shy voter theory I'd have responded to Ebsy's post.

Sheesh LittleBig, maybe next time be a little slower to pounce would ya?

[Virginiá]

never, since it's mail-only.

How does their VbM work? Is it like Oregon where ballots need to be received in the mail by ED, or California where ballots need to be postmarked by ED?

Also, do they have ballot drop sites liberally distributed throughout every county, or do they need to be  mail or delivered to the county election office/courthouse?

This is a common misconception, especially on this forum. Colorado isn't mail-only. All active voters get a ballot in the mail, but there are also vote centers where people can go and register to vote/vote same day, update registration, drop off ballot, etc. There are just fewer of them since they began moving to mail voting. I forget the stats from 2014, but I think most people still voted in-person. Unless I have it backwards, it'll take time for people to move to mail only.

That being said, the proportion of people voting by mail right now in Colorado should be taken into account. In 2012, the system was completely different. If the GOP is gaining now, it might be better for them than it was in 2012, though I'm just speculating.

This could explain why black early voting started slow in NC.

It looks like NC blacks were handicapped through cancelled voter registrations.

Not at all. That was less than 7,000 registrations. North Carolina once again has same-day registration during early voting, so even if those people got de-registered, they could have registered again right before voting.

The reason for the dip is a combination of less enthusiasm, the hurricane and voter suppression (severe lack of early voting sites for first week and tweaks to election laws that created longer lines, such as elimination of straight-ticket voting)

Polls say it will.

[Virginiá]

There is no point in arguing with dxu

He thinks Trump is favored to win any number of states. It doesn't matter what you say to him. He is locked into his own interpretation. Just give it up.

[Virginiá]

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

I'd say bad news for Republicans in general. This kind of bad news is going to be a regular thing for them every 4 years, at least until they find a way to adapt to a diversifying electorate.

..and by 'adapt' I mean not doubling down on a shrinking slice of the electorate (WWC) while shedding every growing part they have influence with.

[Virginiá]

Vote projections for the most Hispanic states (I believe this is overall, not just election day)

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini  1h1 hour ago
Demographic projections for Tuesday's electorate.

Doesn't Colorado seem a little off there? It says 12.xx% when in 2008 it was 13, and then in 2012 it was 14%. With increased voter access in CO this year and a Hispanic voter surge, shouldn't that number be higher, or at the very least, maintain 2012's share?

Or is this the projected composition of only election day's electorate and not the early vote combined?

[Virginiá]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/a-manic-morning-electionsmith-exclusive-party-raceethnicity-and-age-breakdown-of-90k-floridians-who-successfully-registered-to-vote-during-extended-week-following-fdp-lawsuit/

Following is the breakdown of who benefited most from extended FL voter registration after the lawsuit

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)
Republicans: 23,410 (26%)
NPAs: 36,414 (40%)
3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)
Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)
White: 45,050 (50%)
All Others: 15,624 (17%)

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)
30-44: 22,939 (25%)
45-59: 18,042 (20%)
60-105: 13,810 (4%)
Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

That was a godsend for Democrats!

[Virginiá]

THIS.... been saying it four years, and it appears this year we are not only seeing it in Nevada, but also even in Arizona and Texas.

Florida is its own bag because of the historical dominance of the Cuban-American community, and the extremely recent explosion of Puerto Rican Americans leaving the Island as a result of the extreme negligence of the Federal Government over decades, combined with an increased Afro-Carribbean community hasn't gotten any love or respect from Florida Republicans ever, in what used to be the Right Southern anchor of the sunbelt.

The main benefit from Prop 187 actually seems to be that Democrats locked in >72% of the Hispanic vote, up from low-60s before the proposition. That is way more beneficial towards PV margins than a marginal uptick in turnout.

It does look like there was a surge in turnout, and it would make sense for it to maintain itself for at least a couple cycles, but one also has to remember that Hispanic population growth exploded in California in the 90s/2000s. I'm not entirely sure turnout was permanently affected. Though, CA Hispanic turnout rates since the 90s to compare so I can't say for sure.

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

[Virginiá]

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Maybe, but I'm inclined to believe not so much - at least over the next generation. If this was a viable possibility for the GOP, wouldn't it happen with 2nd/3rd+ generation Hispanics? It's going to take a long time for the numbers to be there where they can begin to turn the tide on this part of the electorate. And that's if they can even do it in any significant way.

Personally I see no reason to give the GOP the benefit of the doubt. Not with the current direction their party is headed in.

[Virginiá]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

Hillary has been doing much better among white college educated voters (at the expense of WCWs), particularly white women grads, and part of the reason North Carolina has even become competitive is because of the rise of college grads in NC and the decline of working class whites. States with larger amounts of white college grads makes them stronger for Hillary, like Colorado/Virginia. It also makes her weaker in places like Ohio and Iowa.

So yes, the demographic numbers at face value are worrying, but knowing how she performs among certain white voters makes it perfectly possible for her to win the state.

[Virginiá]

You're wasting your time on this. Trust me, I've tried.

Oh I know, but I thought if someone else was curious I could kill 2 birds with 1 stone.