I know two posters have already made their predictions in Another thread, but I'm curious as to anyone else following the propositions. Given the wide difference between the polling compaines (field and SUSA), there is a lot of speculation here.
For background information, there is the Official voter guide, and the League of women voters guide
I have a limited knowledge about the tv campaigns, as I only watch one show on local networks (Jeopardy).
My predicitions (fwiw):
73: Parental notification. Passes narrowly (51-49). Though there will be a lot of knee jerk votes against it from the more ferverent of the pro-choicers, I think the proponents of parental notification are more orginized. The PAC opposing the 'Arnold' measures isn't touching this one with a ten foot pole.
74: Teacher Tenure. Fails solidly (41-59). Teachers are generally well regarded in California, and thier union is one of the most powerful in the state. Linking the highly unpopular governor Schwartzenegger to the measure pretty much dooms it.
75: Union dues. Fails solidly (39-61). See 74, but add Firefighters and Police into the list of opponents.
76: State spending and school funding. Fails(45-55). This benefits a little from the frustration about the budget problems, but loses favor with those who don't want school funding slasher nor want to give the governor more power over the budget.
77: Redistricting. Fails closely (47-53). People know the state is gerrymandered to the hilt, but it's the devil you know against the devil you don't, and the implied linkage to Arnold weakens it signifigantly.
78: Drug discounts (industry): Fails (46-54). Game theory at work here, the divide and conquer method will insure both measures of failing, though the better funded one (this one) will do better.
79 Drug discounts (labor) Fails (44-56). Same reasoning as 78.
80: Electricity reregulation. Fails strongly (29-71). A lack of knowedge kills this on outright. People tend to vote against measures they don't understand. Plus, a number of voters will likely be voting no across the board as a protest against the special election.
Anyone else?
Although I don't live in California, or San Francisco, I think I will post my predictions for the California Propositions and San Francisco (seven) Propositions here, instead of final predictions. And I agree with you on you on your predictions, with slightly different numbers, except for Proposition 73. I just have a feeling that there will be more people who will be against this Proposition in more liberal areas of California (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, etc.) then in more conservative areas -- also like the other Propositions it will be dragged down due to people voting NO on everything due to anger at Governor Arnold.
Here's my predictions:
73 (PARENTAL NOTIFICATION, ABORTION):
YES 43%
NO 57%
74 (PUBLIC SCHOOL TENURE)
YES 41%
NO 59%
75 (UNION DUES)
YES 39%
NO 61%
76 (SCHOOL FUNDING)
YES 44%
NO 56%
77 (REDISTRICTING, INDEPENDENT)
YES 48%
NO 52%
78 (DRUG DISCOUNTS, INDUSTRY BACKED)
YES 39%
NO 61%
79 (DRUG DISCOUNTS, LABOR BACKED)
YES 48%
NO 52%
80 (ELECTRICITY REGULATION)
YES 29%
NO 71%
San Francisco Propositions:
A ($246 million BOND FOR CITY COLLEGE CAPITOL IMPROVEMENTS)
YES 71%
NO 29%
B (LONG TERM FINANCING FOR STREET MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENTS)
YES 46%
NO 54%
C (INSULATE ETHICS COMMISSION FROM POLITICS)
YES 20%
NO 80%
D (ROLL BACK MUNI REFORMS
YES 10%
NO 90%
F (SHIELD FIRE DEPARTMENT FROM BUDGET EFFICIENCY)
YES 5%
NO 95%
G (CLEAR WAY FOR ACCESS TO NEW GOLDEN GATE PARK UNDERGROUND GARAGE)
YES 60%
NO 40%
H (PROHIBIT CITY RESIDENTS FROM POSSESSING HANDGUNS)
YES 36%
NO 64%
I ("POLICY STATEMENT" AGAINST MILITARY RECRUITING IN SCHOOLS)
YES 35%
NO 65%
I forgot one more election tomorrow in California, that I will go ahead and predict here:
SAN DIEGO MAYOR
Surf shop owner and city councilwoman Donna Frye (D) 57%
San Diego police chief Jerry Sanders (R) 43%
